France is preparing to leave Niger, its last ally in the Sahel region, in the latest setback for Paris, which was previously expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso, bringing the curtain down on a decade of military intervention to combat jihadists in the region.

At the end of an unsustainable two-month standoff with the military regime, President Emmanuel Macron finally relented by announcing on Sunday the ambassador's return to Paris and the withdrawal of 1,500 soldiers "by the end of the year."

This forced withdrawal comes after the departure of Mali in August 2022 and Burkina Faso in February 2023. In the three countries, the military regimes that took power after the coups asked France to withdraw, relying on the feeling hostile to it and shifting, as in Mali, towards cooperation with... Russian Wagner Group.

Until the July 26 coup that ousted elected President Mohamed Bazoum, Niger was one of Paris's last allies in the Sahel region, and a pillar of its forces deployed to fight jihadists in the region.

Researcher Ivan Guichaoua, who specializes in Sahel region affairs, said on the X website (formerly Twitter) that the withdrawal from this country “consecrates the abject failure of France’s policy in the Sahel region.”

According to many observers, Paris did not notice or did not want to see the developments taking place in the region.

A French diplomat said that what happened in “Mali spread slowly. We knew that we were facing such a clear trend. We have seen this wave growing for years. France felt that it was losing its position, but it remained in a state of denial and amazement.”

He added, "We now find ourselves facing the consequences of excessive militarization in our relationship with Africa, while security, environmental, and societal crises are also ravaging the Sahel region," which is one of the poorest regions in the world.

Since his first election, Emmanuel Macron has tried to change the course in Africa, exemplified by his Ouagadougou speech in 2017, then reaffirmed in February 2023, when he outlined a less militarized approach based on relations with civil society and “soft power.” . He stressed on Sunday that "French influence in France has passed."

But the contradiction of Paris's positions has exposed it to criticism. While it condemned the coup in Niger, it supported the first coup in Mali in 2020, and the following year it supported Mohamed Idriss Déby Itno’s assumption of power in Chad without respecting constitutional processes.

In the end, the fait accompli was accepted. In Niger, the ambassador whom Paris refused to recall remained isolated in the French embassy, without diplomatic immunity, with food and water supplies close to running out.

At the Niamey base and at forward positions in the remote northwest of Oualam and Ayolo, troops are being supplied in “almost complex conditions,” according to the French General Staff. The 1,500 soldiers and pilots in Niger could have found themselves without a mission, after their marches, helicopters and fighters remained on the ground.

France, the former colonial power, which still maintains several bases in Africa - such as in Chad, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Gabon and Djibouti - also quickly appeared isolated.
Its Western allies have distanced themselves from its assertive policy towards Niger.

The Senegalese newspaper Wolf Quotidien reported, “With this latest setback, France sees its influence and authority diminishing significantly in West Africa in particular and in Africa in general.”

Fahiraman Rodrigue Kone, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies and specialist in Sahel affairs, pointed out that “France did not know how to withdraw in time and wanted to continue to play the role of leader in a context in which the social environment was witnessing a major change.”

The withdrawal from Niger will represent a logistical challenge for the French armies if it is implemented within three months, against the backdrop of the deteriorating security situation throughout the Sahel region. In Niger alone, about ten jihadist attacks have killed more than a hundred people, half of them civilians, since the coup.