A number of American experts have questioned, in intermittent statements, the sincerity of Abu Muhammad al-Julani’s (Ahmad al-Sharaa) moderation, indicating that after al-Julani was the head of al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, he has now become the most influential man in the country. “He is the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the terrorist organization designated by the United States and which toppled Bashar al-Assad this month,” according to Matthew Levitt, a terrorism expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Affairs, which is close to Israel, warning that Western leaders have responded positively to this development with relative calm because al-Julani broke with al-Qaeda in 2016.

But has this new leader truly rejected what al-Qaeda stands for and severed ties with the broader al-Qaeda network? In 2016, al-Julani gave a speech in which he denied “affiliation with any external entity.” Many reporters and analysts interpreted this comment as a rejection of al-Qaeda. However, one of al-Qaeda’s most senior leaders had already approved al-Julani’s renaming.

Experts say al-Jolani has clashed with his al-Qaeda rivals and achieved effective autonomy as he carved out his fiefdom in northwestern Syria. But he remains committed to armed jihad and Islamic rule. To this day, several organizations within al-Qaeda’s orbit operate under the banner of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Biden administration officials are said to be discussing whether to remove Mr. Julani’s group from the list of foreign terrorist organizations. Doing so would be premature.

“The United States should not consider removing the terrorist designation and associated sanctions unless al-Julani publicly denounces al-Qaeda, rejects jihadism, and ensures that Syria does not become a haven for terrorists,” Levitt says.

Others believe this is unlikely to happen, because al-Julani is not a moderate. In 2016, during a speech in which he broke with al-Qaeda, al-Julani expressed gratitude to Ayman al-Zawahiri, who helped plan the 9/11 attacks and succeeded Osama bin Laden as leader of al-Qaeda after 2011. Al-Julani praised al-Zawahiri’s “blessed leadership” and praised him for implementing the principles taught by bin Laden.

At the time of his comments, al-Jolani was the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate. He declared "the complete abolition of all operations under the name of Jabhat al-Nusra" and announced its replacement with a short-lived alliance that merged with other rebel groups to become Hayat Tahrir al-Sham six months later.

Al-Julani (al-Sharaa) says he made the name change because the presence of an al-Qaeda branch in Syria was a pretext for the United States and Russia to bomb and displace Syrian Muslims. Hence the replacement of Jabhat al-Nusra with an alliance not affiliated with any external entity.

It is noteworthy that al-Julani has not yet disavowed his allegiance or pledge of loyalty to al-Zawahiri. Nor has he identified al-Qaeda as an external entity. At the time, al-Qaeda had a strong presence in Idlib, the Syrian province that was primarily under al-Julani’s control. In October 2016, a U.S. airstrike in Idlib killed a longtime al-Qaeda operative who the Pentagon said was planning attacks on Western targets. The following January, a precision U.S. airstrike killed more than 100 al-Qaeda members at their training camp in Idlib. In February, another airstrike in Idlib killed al-Zawahiri’s deputy, al-Qaeda’s second-in-command.

Levitt notes that it is no surprise that the US government does not buy the idea of a break between al-Julani and al-Qaeda. In May 2018, the State Department amended its terrorist blacklist to include Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as an alias for Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. “The United States is not fooled by this al-Qaeda affiliate’s attempt to rebrand itself,” the State Department’s top counterterrorism official said in a statement. “Whatever name al-Nusra chooses, we will continue to deny it the resources it needs to advance its violent cause.”

Since the Assad regime was toppled, al-Jolani has claimed that he would respect Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities. Yet as al-Jolani’s forces closed in on Damascus, CNN’s Jomana Karadsheh asked in an interview whether his plan for Syria was still to implement “strict Islamic rule.” Rather than say no, he insisted: “People who fear Islamic rule have either seen it implemented incorrectly or they don’t understand it properly.”

What has gone unnoticed are the jihadist groups, particularly fighters from Central Asia, that were part of al-Jolani’s coalition during the march from Idlib to Damascus. Among them is the Turkestan Islamic Party, whose leader sits on al-Qaeda’s main advisory council. Five other groups within the coalition are blacklisted as terrorists by the United States. Al-Jolani is already lobbying the United States and Europe to lift sanctions on Syria. So is the UN envoy to Damascus. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has canceled a $10 million bounty on al-Jolani’s head and sent a delegation to Syria to meet with the country’s interim government.

It is noteworthy that the official spokesman for the US State Department, Matthew Miller, said in response to a question from the Jerusalem correspondent that the administration will judge the new government in Syria "by actions, not just words." But experts in Washington fear that Washington will overlook many of al-Julani's actions in pursuit of the gains of the largest share of the United States in the future of Syria.