As January 1, 2025 approaches, 20 days before US President Joe Biden leaves office, ceasefire talks between Hamas and the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu appear to have reached a dead end, making any agreement unlikely before the end of the Biden administration on the 20th of this month.

Hamas, which is holding dozens of Israelis, both military and civilian, in the Gaza Strip, which it seized in its bold attack that surprised Israel and the world on October 7, 2023, insists on Israel’s commitment to a permanent truce, something that the Israeli occupation authorities are currently ruling out.

The lack of progress toward a ceasefire and prisoner swap for Palestinians and Israelis is a blow to President Biden’s team, which has invested significant time and political capital in a futile push for an agreement, U.S. officials say. It is also a disappointment to Palestinians in Gaza, who have been subjected to nearly 15 months of bombing, massacres, starvation and destruction. They have been calling on social media for Hamas to accept a deal that would help end the war, even if it falls short of other goals such as freeing thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, something experts say is unlikely.

In Israel, the families of the detainees are putting intense pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike a deal that would secure their release, arguing that every day of captivity puts their lives in danger.

Hopes for a deal in Gaza rose after the Lebanese Hezbollah militia agreed to a cease-fire with Israel on that front in late November. The deal left Hamas’s exhausted ranks isolated in its fight against the Israeli occupation army, and mediators hoped the cease-fire on the Lebanese front would create momentum for another deal.

Hamas told mediators at the time that it was willing to postpone discussion of a permanent end to the fighting in Gaza until later rounds of negotiations, raising hopes that at least some of the hostages could be released in exchange for a cessation of hostilities.

According to the mediators, the two sides were considering a 60-day ceasefire that would see the release of up to 30 hostages held in Gaza. In return, Israel would release Palestinian prisoners and allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said after a mid-December meeting with Netanyahu in Israel that he believed the release of the hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza were close.

But the talks stalled as they got deeper into details, and both sides hardened their positions. Mediators said Israel insisted on accepting only live hostages in any exchange and refused to agree to the release of some Palestinian prisoners sought by Hamas, while Hamas revived its demand for a way to end the war. Netanyahu’s office declined a request for comment but has publicly accused Hamas of reneging on its commitments.

Hamas has accused Israel of changing the terms of its demands but said the negotiations, though delayed, had not yet failed. “We are continuing to work on this as hard as we can to try to reach a ceasefire agreement before we leave office,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday. “Hamas is putting up obstacles or refusing to move on any of these details, and that is why we have not reached a conclusion yet.”

A US official, who asked not to be named, said the structure of the potential deal had not changed since the spring, but the most important issue dividing the two sides now concerns Israeli detainees and Palestinian prisoners.

The collapse highlights the continuing mistrust and gaps between the two sides despite more than a year of heavy fighting and months of efforts by the United States, Egypt and Qatar to persuade the sides to reach an agreement. More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, most of them women and children, since the October 7 attacks, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel continues its brutal war on the Gaza Strip, which has been particularly brutal recently in the northern Gaza Strip.

Arab mediators have been quoted in several US media outlets as saying they expect the two sides to return to the negotiating table after the Trump administration takes office on January 20. President-elect Trump said on Truth Social that there would be “hell to pay” in the Middle East if the hostages were not released before he takes office. Israel says there are 96 hostages remaining in Gaza, most of them Israelis. They include dual nationals and at least 30 hostages Israel has concluded are no longer alive. With four additional hostages taken before October 7, 2023, the total number rises to 100.

But Hamas has so far refused to provide a full list of the hostages to the mediators, saying it needs more time and a cessation of hostilities to confirm their locations and conditions. In October, Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who had insisted that a deal must include a complete end to the war and the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza.

There is speculation that Hamas is now being led by a collective leadership, including officials from the Palestinian diaspora, until a successor to Sinwar is chosen. The mediators said Hamas is now demanding guarantees from the United States, Qatar and Egypt that negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza will continue after the initial deal is completed.

Most of Gaza's 2.2 million people (before the Israeli war began) have been displaced by the war, with many living in makeshift tent camps near the beach in southern Gaza. As temperatures drop and storms hit the enclave, Gazans say conditions in the camps have become increasingly harsh, with a number of children dying from freezing to death.