Suleiman Basharat: Whoever will succeed Nasrallah in leading the party needs to create a delicate balance between political and field challenges

Dr. Ashraf Badr: The strikes that Hezbollah was subjected to require it to re-evaluate and address the gaps in its security system

Samah Khalifa: Hezbollah has ready scenarios to deal with the loss of its leaders and may reconsider its relations with Iran

Mohammad Jaradat: Hezbollah will not be shaken by the assassination of Nasrallah and many of its leaders and will remain cohesive on the battlefields

Daoud Kuttab: Despite the successive strikes, Hezbollah has leaders, cadres, and a solid doctrine capable of filling the void

Samir Anabtawi: The assassination of Nasrallah, with its great symbolism, will lead to an escalation in the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel

The Lebanese Hezbollah party is facing major challenges after a series of blows it has received recently, which may be linked to security breaches, raising questions about the party’s ability to maintain its internal security and organizational future, and the possibility of its recovery and continued confrontation in light of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon, and Israel’s attempt to deter Hezbollah and force it to give up being a support front for Gaza.

Writers and political analysts said in separate interviews with “I” that these breaches indicate the existence of a technological and intelligence breach on the part of Israel, which succeeded in targeting the party in unconventional ways such as blowing up the “pager” communications devices, then the series of assassinations that targeted its leaders, reaching the top of the pyramid, its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

These writers and analysts expressed their belief that Hezbollah may recover from these blows in the long run, but the impact of Nasrallah’s absence may leave a temporary psychological and moral void, as he had a great charismatic presence and the ability to communicate with his audience.

Writers and analysts pointed out that the new Secretary-General of Hezbollah will have to face dual challenges, namely rearranging the party’s cards internally to confront security breaches, and at the same time preserving its role in the resistance and ensuring the continuity of the party’s cohesion.

Fundamental questions about the nature of the security breach

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat said: “There are fundamental questions about the nature of the security breach that led to the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and the assassinations and bombings of Hezbollah’s pager communications devices that preceded it.”

Basharat pointed out that there is a "missing link" in explaining these operations, especially in light of Hezbollah's ability to maintain its security for decades.

Basharat stressed that this breach reveals several basic dimensions, the first of which relates to the advanced technology used by Israel, especially with regard to the pager device explosions. These devices may have been used as observation points to collect information about Hezbollah’s movements, which enabled Israel to create a comprehensive database about the party and its leaders.

He added: The second dimension of the penetration is related to the open social and economic structure of Lebanon since the 2006 war.

This openness allowed Israel, in cooperation with international intelligence agencies - led by the United States - to collect extensive information about the party's activities.

As for the third dimension, according to Basharat, with Hezbollah’s expansion into political and social life in Lebanon, its movements and communications have become more vulnerable to penetration.

The party's participation in supporting the Syrian state

Basharat pointed to another dimension, which is Hezbollah’s entry into the Syrian war since 2011 and the resulting exposure to more surveillance by international intelligence agencies, as Israel benefited from this involvement to expand its information about the party’s structure and tactics. Basharat wondered whether the party would be able to address this breach in the future?

Basharat pointed to the growing relations between Hezbollah and Iran, as another security dimension, which may have opened more channels for penetration, especially in light of the targeting of prominent Iranian figures before October 7.

Basharat stressed that the Israeli Mossad has extensive relations with global intelligence agencies, which makes the process of gathering information about Hezbollah more effective and comprehensive since 2006 until now.

Despite the severe blows Hezbollah has received, Basharat believes that the party has an inherent ability to recover, pointing out that resistance forces are naturally capable of regaining their health, and he cited the experiences of Palestinian factions that were subjected to numerous assassinations of their leaders, but were able to rise again.

But Basharat pointed out that the absence of a figure of the stature and presence of Hassan Nasrallah may affect morale within the party for a period of time, as Nasrallah is a charismatic figure close to his popular base, which makes his loss a blow not only military but also psychological.

Goals and ideology transcend people.

He stressed that the party will remain based on its goals and ideology that transcend individuals.

Regarding Nasrallah’s successor, Basharat said: The biggest challenge that the new Secretary-General will face is the ability to rearrange the party’s cards under these difficult circumstances, and his mission will be dual: maintaining the party’s internal cohesion, while ensuring decisive and courageous decisions are made in the face of upcoming challenges.

Basharat pointed out that any figure who assumes the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah will need to strike a delicate balance between political and field challenges, and maintaining the party’s popular standing and its ability to continue the resistance.

Basharat stressed that Hezbollah is currently standing at an important crossroads, as the coming weeks and months will determine whether the party is able to fully recover and restore its organizational capacity as it was before, or whether the assassination of Nasrallah will leave a void that cannot be easily filled.

According to Basharat, the next successor may be more hardline and ready to make decisive decisions about the party's future directions.

Gaps due to technology or human element

As for the writer and political analyst Dr. Ashraf Badr, he believes that the recent attacks on Hezbollah, including the assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, require the party to carefully re-evaluate and address the gaps that have appeared in its security system.

Badr pointed out that these loopholes may be related to either technology or the human element, explaining that Hezbollah has not been subjected to a real test of the strength of its security system since the 2006 war, and it seems that there is a state of security relaxation within the party, which contributed to the occurrence of these breaches.

Badr expected Hezbollah to be able to recover after the severe blows it received, based on previous experiences.

Badr stressed that resistance movements, in general, are not based on individual figures, but rather have a large human reserve that can be relied upon to recover from any losses in leadership and cadres.

Badr believes that resistance movements are able to effectively reorganize their ranks even if the symbolism of the leadership figures is high.

Strong charisma and leadership potential

Badr explained that Nasrallah had strong charisma, leadership capabilities, experience, and the ability to address the masses. It is difficult to find a replacement for him easily, but the circumstances that the party is experiencing after his assassination may lead to the rise of a new, more “hawkish” figure to assume leadership.

Badr pointed out that armed organizations tend to highlight strong-willed, resolute figures in times of war to assume leadership positions. An example of this is the experience of the Hamas movement after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, where the movement chose Yahya Sinwar, known for his firmness and strong will, as head of its political bureau.

Badr expected that Hezbollah might take a similar step in the near future, as a new leader would emerge with leadership capabilities that match the requirements of the current stage.

Netanyahu's Dreams of a 'Sweeping Victory'

Writer and political analyst Samah Khalifa considered that Hezbollah received a painful blow, as Israel targeted the party’s leadership arms, leading to the assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, in a move through which the occupying state, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, seeks to achieve what he described as a “sweeping victory.”

Khalifa pointed out that Netanyahu seeks, through this strike, to show great progress to the Israeli people by eliminating the major leaders of the movements hostile to Israel, whether in Hamas or Hezbollah.

However, Khalifa stressed that what the Israelis may overlook is that these organizations do not rely on individuals as much as they are based on a firm belief and a fixed idea that does not die with the death of the leaders, referring to previous statements by both the head of the Hamas political bureau, Yahya Sinwar, and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah: “Every leader or member of the party is a potential martyr.”

Khalifa considered that the assassination of Nasrallah indicates the existence of a major security breach within the ranks of Hezbollah, and this breach may be the result of international intelligence cooperation, as Israel supports its information through a global network of intelligence agencies, in addition to its use of advanced espionage technologies and satellites that provide it with accurate information.

Breakthroughs and international investigations into the Hariri assassination

Khalifa linked this breach to previous international investigations, specifically into the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, where the intervention of external parties led to the disclosure of huge amounts of information about various communications systems, which Israel may have taken advantage of to obtain information about Hezbollah leaders and cadres.

Khalifa believes that Hezbollah's participation in the Syrian war in 2011 also contributed to exposing the party's movements and communications, which made it easy for Israel to track the activities of the party's members during that period.

Khalifa pointed to the recent "pager" incident as further evidence of the extent of Israel's close monitoring of Hezbollah's movements.

"Despite this severe blow, Hezbollah will be able to recover, as it did in the aftermath of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, when the United States supported Israel under the slogan 'Towards a New Middle East,'" she said.

That war, which witnessed a naval and air blockade of Lebanon, and the displacement of half a million Lebanese, ended with the party returning to its strength after reorganizing its ranks and learning lessons from the confrontation.

Ready-made scenarios for dealing with the loss of senior leadership

Khalifa believes that the assassination of Nasrallah, although a strong blow, is only part of a series of previous attacks. The party has ready-made scenarios for dealing with the loss of its senior leaders, and has clear instructions for carrying out operations even in the absence of leaders.

Khalifa stressed that Hezbollah will continue its resistance against the Israeli occupation, and will support Hamas in Gaza, while defending Lebanon and its people.

Khalifa touched on an issue related to Hezbollah's orientations in the next phase, as the party may rethink the extent of its connection to Iran, which is its main source of strength.

She pointed out that despite Hezbollah possessing an advanced missile arsenal, the party has not yet used its full capabilities in confronting Israel, which may raise questions about its hesitation.

Khalifa added: "Hezbollah is subject to Iran's directives and cannot disobey them, which explains its caution in using its missile force."

Khalifa Nasrallah

Regarding Nasrallah’s successor, she said: “The next phase will be greatly affected by the personality who will assume leadership of the party. Previously, Hassan Nasrallah assumed leadership of the party after the assassination of Abbas al-Moussawi, and was subjected to four assassination attempts since assuming the position. After Nasrallah’s assassination, he must be succeeded by someone close to his personality. The most prominent candidate to succeed him is Hashem Safi al-Din, who enjoys great confidence within the party and is considered one of the closest figures to Nasrallah. Alongside him, there is Naim Qassem, the deputy secretary-general, who supervises the party’s parliamentary and governmental work. The event will continue to contain surprises that may not have been expected by observers of the event, in order to confuse the enemy.”

Obligatory questions about security breaches

In turn, writer and political analyst Muhammad Jaradat said that the region witnessed an unprecedented development in the course of the conflict with Israel, after the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, in a shocking and unexpected incident.

Jaradat explained that the assassination of Nasrallah raised necessary questions about the security breaches that the party, which is known for its security strength in the region, was exposed to, which makes this assassination, which came after a series of assassinations targeting the party’s military leaders, an exceptional event.

Jaradat raised several profound questions about this event, including: “Did a high-level security breach occur within Hezbollah’s structure? Or has Israel, with technological support from the United States, reached a tremendous technical development that enables it to target anyone it wants?”

"This mystery may remain unsolved for years, whether Hezbollah reveals it or Israel brags about it later," Jaradat added.

Jaradat stressed that the coming days may reveal more surprises regarding the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, pointing out that “the security conflict is no less important than the military and political conflict, as the events, including the (Al-Aqsa Flood) war, carry many security puzzles that cannot be easily deciphered, except through analyses and relative estimates.”

Significant impact on the party in the short and long term.

Jaradat believes that the blows Hezbollah received, including the bombings of its communications devices and the series of assassinations, up to the assassination of Nasrallah, shook the party’s organizational structure, as Nasrallah was a figure of great religious, political, and spiritual stature, and this assassination will have a major impact on the party in the short and long term.

Jaradat referred to a similar incident, when Israel assassinated the former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Abbas al-Moussawi, in 1992, and boasted about it, but later it became clear that the new leadership in the party was more developed and deeper, especially with the development of Iran’s capabilities in the region, which brought the idea of resistance into a new phase that changed the political and military scene in the region.

Despite all these challenges, Jaradat stressed that Hezbollah will remain cohesive, especially on the battlefields, where its fighters show great commitment under the party's leadership.

Jaradat believes that the party is facing major challenges, especially since these strikes may push it towards taking qualitative responses, and perhaps pushing the fighting towards a new, more complex phase.

Regarding Nasrallah’s succession, Jaradat explained that Hashem Safieddine is the most likely candidate to lead the party, as he is the leader of the executive authority in Hezbollah and a descendant of the Prophet’s family, which is an advantage that gives him preference, according to the Twelver Shiite doctrine, over his deputy, Naim Qassem.

Jaradat stressed that Hezbollah will not be shaken by the assassination of a person, as organizations are measured by their organizational structure and not by the presence of a specific individual.

Unprecedented challenges faced by Hezbollah

In turn, writer and political analyst Daoud Kuttab considered that Hezbollah is facing unprecedented challenges since the bombing of its communications devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, through a series of assassinations targeting its cadres, and up to the assassination of the party’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah.

These strikes, according to the writers, revealed the existence of high-level breaches within Hezbollah, which will require time for Hezbollah to rearrange its internal papers.

Writers pointed out that Hezbollah, despite the successive blows it has received, has leaders, cadres, and a solid doctrine capable of filling the void left by these losses. However, the nature of these blows was harsh and requires the party to reconsider the organization’s structure and objectives.

Writers said that when the new leadership of Hezbollah takes over, it will need to plan on two levels: the first is to reorganize the party from within in terms of organization and equipment, and the second is to re-evaluate its relations with the Lebanese state and the international community.

It is not easy to choose a new Secretary General.

On the leadership front, writers stressed that choosing a new Secretary-General for the party would not be an easy task, especially since Hassan Nasrallah had charisma, wisdom, and the ability to manage matters with firmness and rationality that are rarely found in a single leader.

Writers pointed out that this absence of Nasrallah will put the new leadership in front of great challenges, as it will not be able to make decisions with the same freedom and comfort that Nasrallah enjoyed.

Writers believe that the new leadership must make decisive decisions regarding the conflict with Israel, the resistance’s relationship with Gaza, in addition to relations with the Lebanese state and its Syrian neighbors.

He stressed the need to reconsider the relationship with Iran, the main supporter of Hezbollah, which prefers to stay away from engaging in a direct war with Israel, which is an additional factor that increases the pressure on the next leadership.

Writers expected that Hezbollah would resort to a temporary collective leadership in the immediate period following Nasrallah’s assassination, with this leadership working to regain support and endorsement from the party’s cadres and the local and international community, especially countries related to Hezbollah.

More radical and radical changes in the coming period

Writer and political analyst Samer Anabtawi said: The Israeli occupation, since the 2006 war until now, has not entered into a direct confrontation with Hezbollah, but the occupation has focused its efforts on gathering intelligence information about the Lebanese resistance at all levels. In contrast, Hezbollah has been acting as if it were a state in itself, as its movements and work in its institutions and offices were largely normal. This state of "routine" has allowed Israel to carry out a series of attacks and assassinations, including blowing up the party's communications devices, and carrying out a series of assassinations, leading to the assassination of its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah.

Anabtawi suggested that these attacks were carried out with intelligence assistance from other countries, such as the United States, and that Hezbollah did not take sufficient security precautions to protect its leaders and members.

Anbatawi said: "Although these strikes were painful and influential, the party possesses enormous capabilities, whether in terms of human cadres, weapons, or revolutionary mobilization, which will enable it to overcome these losses and regain its strength."

On the other hand, Anabtawi pointed out that the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, who was considered a charismatic symbol and an influential leader at the regional level, will undoubtedly lead to an escalation in the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel.

Party school with strict organizational rules

He added: Despite Hezbollah losing this influential figure, Nasrallah had established a school within the party based on strong organizational rules and strict party education, which means that the party will remain able to rearrange its papers and regain its health, even if that will require time and continuous efforts.

Anbatawi believes that Hassan Nasrallah’s absence will leave a huge void in the party, especially since Nasrallah was known for his wisdom, modesty, and ability to control balances locally and regionally, and his speeches were awaited and anticipated by everyone.

However, Anbatawi pointed out that Hezbollah may move towards more radical and extremist transformations in the coming period, as there were reports that Nasrallah might be succeeded by Hashem Safieddine, who is known for his extremism and desire to confront Israel.

Anbatawi pointed out that Safi al-Din is starting his term strongly by organizing the party’s ranks and conducting comprehensive reviews of the organizational structure. These changes may push the party toward further escalation with Israel, benefiting from its long experience in dealing with crises and restoring its strength after the assassination of its leaders.

He pointed out that the assassination of Nasrallah may give Hezbollah a new impetus to continue the confrontation, and that the party is capable of restoration and renewal, which may make it stronger in the long run.

Anbatawi pointed out that experiences have proven the ability of resistance movements to constantly review themselves and restore themselves when one of their leaders is assassinated, and therefore I believe that Hezbollah will recover.