ARAB AND WORLD
Fri 20 Sep 2024 8:26 am - Jerusalem Time
US officials admit Gaza ceasefire is out of reach for Biden
After months of saying a ceasefire and hostage release were within reach, senior U.S. officials are now privately admitting they do not expect Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement before the end of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Thursday in response to a question from a Jerusalem correspondent that the Biden administration will not stop its pursuit of an agreement, seeing it as the only way to end the war in Gaza and halt the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. The White House said earlier that the warring parties had already agreed to “90 percent” of the text of the agreement, so there was still hope for progress. But a number of senior officials in the White House, State Department and Pentagon claim that the warring parties will not agree to the current framework.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Wednesday that the ceasefire agreement in Gaza "is the best opportunity to address the humanitarian crisis and achieve regional stability."
During a joint press conference with his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdel Aati in Cairo, Blinken called on all parties to work to reduce escalation in the region, adding that "reaching a ceasefire in Gaza will lead to de-escalation."
Blinken pointed out that "15 of the 18 items in the proposed ceasefire agreement have been agreed upon, but the remaining issues need to be resolved," stressing that "resolving the remaining issues in the proposed ceasefire agreement in Gaza is a matter of political will more than anything else."
Biden proposed a three-stage ceasefire on May 31, and said at the time that Israel had agreed to it. With talks stalled, officials have been saying for weeks that a new proposal will be forthcoming.
The Wall Street Journal quotes an American official as saying: “No deal is imminent. I’m not sure it will ever be done.”
The officials cited two main reasons for the pessimism: The percentage of Palestinian prisoners Israel would have to release to return Hamas hostages home was a major sticking point — even before the U.S.-designated terrorist group killed six hostages, including an American citizen. Second, a two-day attack on Hezbollah with explosive pagers and walkie-talkies — followed by Israeli airstrikes — made the prospect of an all-out war more likely, complicating diplomacy with Hamas.
Another problem is that, according to Biden administration officials, “Hamas is demanding and then refusing to say ‘yes’ to its demands being accepted by the United States and Israel. This intransigence has deeply frustrated negotiators, who increasingly feel that the militant group is not serious about closing the deal. Critics have also accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of sabotaging the process, in part in an attempt to appease the hard-line right wing of his ruling coalition.”
As a result, the mood within the administration and in the Middle East is very gloomy.
An official from an Arab country added shortly after the operation against Hezbollah: “There is no chance now for that to happen. Everyone is in a wait-and-see mode until after the (US) elections, and the results of the elections will determine what can happen in the next administration.”
“Failure to reach an agreement could damage the legacy of Biden, who has been slow to embrace Israel and all that it has done in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 attack, and has been unable to convince Netanyahu that he should prioritize the return of some 250 hostages, a blow to Israeli families who have been waiting nearly a year to embrace their loved ones again, as well as Palestinians in Gaza seeking relief from a war that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry,” experts told the newspaper.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met Wednesday with relatives of the seven remaining American hostages held in Gaza, telling them that securing their release was Biden’s top priority. But a statement from the families said they “expressed frustration with the lack of tangible progress” to Sullivan and urged the administration to reach a deal as soon as possible.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that the prospects for a full-fledged agreement were “slippery.” Although the administration has signaled for months that a deal was close, Kirby said, “We’re no closer to that now than we were a week ago.” He reiterated, however, that the administration would continue to work toward an elusive diplomatic breakthrough.
The stakes are higher now than they have been in weeks.
In a televised address on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the deadly pager and walkie-talkie attack a “declaration of war” as Israeli fighter jets broke the sound barrier over the Lebanese capital Beirut — and said attacks on Israel would continue until the war in Gaza ended. Israel’s defense minister, meanwhile, vowed to continue striking Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the aim of halting the group’s rocket and missile attacks so that 70,000 Israelis can return to their homes in the northern border area.
For his part, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who spoke on Thursday in France after a visit to Egypt, warned all parties to show restraint and avoid actions that could make the deal "more difficult."
CIA Director William Burns, a top administration negotiator, has no immediate plans to return to the region, highlighting the stalled negotiations.
A ceasefire remains the centerpiece of the Biden administration’s regional strategy, which it believes will calm tensions and pave the way for formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Thursday that the kingdom will not recognize Israel without a Palestinian state.
Some U.S. officials have stressed that there are still months left to achieve a breakthrough between Israel and Hamas, and that much could change between now and Inauguration Day, when Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump inherits a Middle East in flames. The United States is still in talks with mediators Egypt and Qatar about how to break the deadlock — or whether it can be broken at all.
“It would be irresponsible” for the administration to abandon the pursuit of an agreement that would bring at least temporary relief to the region, one official said. But the official also noted his frustration with the Israelis and Hamas.
"As we have said from the beginning, it will take leadership and compromise, and we urge all parties to demonstrate that," the official said.
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US officials admit Gaza ceasefire is out of reach for Biden