Israeli Newspaper: Rafah is a strategic trap, and also a last chance

By Ziv Yisrael

There are now more than 1,200,000 displaced people in Rafah, and more than 300,000 residents of Rafah. The place is like a boiling pot that threatens to explode at any moment. The infrastructure there is unable to contain the size of the community, the nutritional situation changes according to the pace of supply, and the level of health is disastrous. Under these circumstances, Hamas is trying to establish the last authority that is still under its control, after its failed attempt to revive as an organization in Al-Shifa Hospital, and the army’s “smart” campaign there.

Hamas, which had the majority of its organizational and military structures destroyed in the north and center of the Gaza Strip, has made a great effort to rebuild itself in the last three months. It turned Al-Shifa Hospital into its main camp, and rebuilt its command centers, and that of Islamic Jihad, in the large medical center. The Shin Bet and the Southern Command worked intelligently, allowing this structure to be built and developed, and they even gave them a feeling that the hospital was a safe place. In this way, the place attracted about 1,000 “saboteurs” and a large chain of command who settled there.

Weeks earlier, in a well-planned and controlled campaign, the forces surrounded the hospital, took control of central areas inside it, and besieged “saboteurs” inside the buildings, in a way that would not allow anyone to escape. Very few fought until the end, and about 100 were assassinated - and the forces fought there, face to face, and more than 500 “saboteurs” surrendered. What was found there were combat equipment, intelligence and people. Despite all this, no harm was caused to patients or medical staff. Al-Shifa Hospital has become a target of war, due to the serious operational achievement that has caused great damage to Hamas's ability to revive and rebuild itself in the northern Gaza Strip.

The dismantling of the last Hamas outpost in Rafah could take place in two ways: either military-tactical, as happened in Khan Yunis, or a military campaign that dismantles the four brigades there. If we put aside the extent of the complexity in implementing the operation, from a military perspective, this achievement did not change the reality that exists in most areas of the Gaza Strip - “Hamas” disintegrated, but it did not surrender. An uncoordinated military campaign, meaning a "strategic trap." At the same time, a coordinated military operation, part of a larger plan for the “day after the war,” would represent an evolution in the sector’s decisive ability, and could lead to the strategic achievement required to achieve the war objectives as set by the political echelon.

The “failure” that prompted the world to intervene

Rafah is not just a difficult problem of fighting in a densely populated location, home to a million and a half people; Rafah has also turned into a major international political problem - Israel is living in its own trap. The key is the humanitarian problem that Israel failed to manage, which distorted Israel's image in the world, and harmed relations with the United States. Today, two United Nations organizations and an Emirati force are operating in Rafah, and the Egyptians have shown a willingness to act. Therefore, any uncoordinated operation will immediately lead to a dangerous international clash.

Although this may seem like a mockery, the demonstration of a group of individuals who prevented trucks from entering Kerem Shalom, the government's disregard for the humanitarian issue, and the apparently intentional failure of the Ben Gvir police to do their part - all of these were the central reason for the international intervention in the sector. Today, because of Israel's perception that it is promoting famine among the residents of the Gaza Strip, countries around the world are launching food supplies there.

This is the failure that prompted the establishment of a temporary international port, which would return Qatar to the Gaza Strip, force the army to guarantee its security, and could very quickly turn into a target for operations. If we fail to manage the humanitarian situation and do not decide on civilian control, this will be an achievement for Hamas. Israel gave Hamas what it had not succeeded in doing alone: a terrible image of Israel, an international political crisis, and the construction of a port in Gaza with cover and funding from the main financier of Hamas - the Emirate of Qatar.

Occupying Rafah in the first way, and also the only international corridor, will lead to the recognition that Israel has completely occupied the Gaza Strip. Therefore, the standards of international law and full responsibility for the Strip and its residents will apply to it as an occupying power - which will push Israel to impose military rule and deal with two and a half million people in the occupied zone.

The "Sabra and Shatila" trap

Militarily, entering a densely populated area could bring Israel into the “Sabra and Shatila” trap, which the Lebanese capital witnessed in 1982, when the Phalange Party entered Palestinian refugee camps, under the cover of the Israeli army, and committed a massacre that claimed the lives of hundreds of people - and it was accused of Israel. In Rafah, Hamas will do the same, and Israel will be held responsible for any mass killing, despite its warning against entering. Needless to say, our already weak international position will disintegrate so completely that the United States will take important steps - a situation that will see Israel forced to withdraw from Gaza with its guilt at its feet.

Because Rafah is a border city with Egypt, there is great Egyptian sensitivity about what is happening there, to the point that Egypt threatened Israel that in the event of an uncoordinated entry and the start of the flow of refugees into Egyptian areas, Egypt will violate the peace agreement with Israel. Practically, every unilateral operation by Israel in Rafah will be a major failure.

Despite this, Israel can exploit Rafah to carry out a strategic change in all of Gaza. This will happen by proceeding with a joint plan with the Americans and friendly Arab countries (which have a desire no less than Israel’s desire to dismantle Hamas), by coordinating the first phase of evacuating the population to an organized tent city that will be under the control of friendly countries, with protection forces from one party. These countries. In return, a humanitarian corridor will be opened under the control of these countries to the Philadelphia axis. This will be done by isolating Hamas’ capabilities and not allowing it to control it in a way that makes the humanitarian situation outside the movement’s control.

All of this will represent the first phase of the plan that the Americans expect. As for the second phase, it will allow the army to take military control of Rafah for a coordinated time, up to a few weeks, with the aim of “cleansing” the remnants of the brigades there. The army will not remain there after that, in order to prevent the emergence of a situation in which it occupies the Gaza Strip. The third stage will allow international forces to establish a local police that is not affiliated with Hamas, and begin to gradually control Rafah, then Al-Mawasi, and after that, Khan Yunis, and in the end, the northern Gaza Strip. The coalition of friendly countries will train the police and provide them with equipment. In the fourth phase, this coalition will work to reconstruct the Strip, and ultimately, over a period of 5 years, Gaza’s political future will be decided.

This plan can be in line with the spirit of the words of the Minister of Defense who spoke with the Americans, and without a doubt, it will lead to a better solution that this government can afford. The advantage of this step is that it builds an alternative to Hamas, and exposes it to great new pressures that will, without a doubt, push the exchange deal. The international balance, as well as the presence of the “war cabinet” and the government in Israel, relate to that. The failure to return the hostages will be a disgrace to the government, and opens A painful wound in society as a whole - a wound that will never heal.

The government's margin of maneuver regarding decision-making has ended. If it is about achieving a breakthrough and returning the hostages, this is the way. If it is not concerned with decision-making, it seems that it is not fit to continue managing the war.