State Department officials have told the Trump administration’s transition team that a humanitarian “catastrophe” could occur in Gaza when a new Israeli law banning contact with the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees goes into effect at the end of the month, three US officials told Axios.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) is the primary aid agency operating in Gaza. U.S. officials say there is no serious backup plan to provide humanitarian supplies and services to the Palestinians.

More than 15 months into Israel’s war of extermination, the United Nations and other aid organizations have warned that Gaza is close to being uninhabitable. The vast majority of Gaza’s housing has been destroyed, and nearly two million Palestinians who depend on aid for food, water and medical services have been displaced.

The Israeli law will go into effect just days after President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated, as his new administration inherits mounting global crises.

The website says: “Biden administration officials told Axios that they initiated the briefing on UNRWA because they wanted the new administration to be aware of the impending crisis.”

It is noteworthy that last October, the Israeli Knesset approved two bills that would significantly limit UNRWA's ability to continue operating in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

The first bill bans UNRWA from operating in Israeli territory, and is most relevant to UNRWA’s activities in East Jerusalem. But it also affects the relief agency’s operations in the West Bank, which are run from Jerusalem. The second bill bans any Israeli government official from contacting UNRWA, and strips all UNRWA workers of their diplomatic privileges and immunity.

“Israel has long been hostile to UNRWA – and has been since the start of the war in Gaza, alleging that some of the agency’s employees were involved in the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The agency expelled nine employees following a UN investigation, but has repeatedly denied allegations that the agency has extensive ties to Hamas.

It is noteworthy that during Trump’s first term (2017-2021), his administration gradually cut all US aid to UNRWA. The Biden administration later resumed US aid to the agency and supported its budget with hundreds of millions of dollars. But Congress passed a law last March prohibiting the United States from funding UNRWA until at least 2025.

UN officials said they were concerned that once the laws came into effect, UNRWA staff would not be able to travel between Gaza and Israel, and the agency would not be able to implement deconfliction arrangements with the IDF. It was also not clear whether the IDF would treat the agency’s facilities as part of the UN, which under international law cannot be targeted by Israeli forces.

UN officials said this would jeopardize UNRWA's ability to continue operating in Gaza, while a senior UNRWA emergency official told the Guardian that the social system in the Strip was likely to collapse, according to Axios.

Last week, State Department officials briefed Joel Rayburn of Trump's transition team on UNRWA's situation and raised "deep concerns" about the impact of the new laws on the humanitarian situation in Gaza, US officials said.

Axios says that Rayburn, a seasoned Middle East expert and former US envoy to Syria, is expected to be named assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the next administration, replacing Barbara Leaf.

“We wanted them to know what would happen 10 days after Trump took office,” a US official told Axios. “We thought that was the responsible thing to do. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.”

US officials told the site that Israel and the United Nations have not made any serious plans for what will happen next.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has refused for the past two months to engage in discussions with Israel about alternative U.N. agencies that could take over some of UNRWA’s roles, U.S. and Israeli officials said. A spokesman for Guterres declined to comment.

The Israeli government has held several consultations on the UNRWA issue, but has not made any decisions on what to do in Gaza after the laws go into effect, a senior Israeli official told Axios.

“Both sides are playing a dangerous game, waiting for a magic bullet — and they think that if they don’t do something, it will resolve itself, but it won’t,” a US official said.

In a letter to members of the UN General Assembly last December, Guterres wrote that halting or restricting UNRWA’s activities in Gaza and the West Bank would have “devastating consequences” for Palestinian refugees.

“There is currently no realistic alternative to UNRWA that can adequately provide the services and assistance required,” he wrote.

UNRWA communications director Juliette Touma told Axios that the agency will not close its operations on January 31, when the law goes into effect. “We plan to stay in Gaza and work as long as we can until the very last moment; it will be catastrophic if the bill is implemented,” Touma said.