ARAB AND WORLD
Thu 14 Nov 2024 8:38 am - Jerusalem Time
A golden Trump era to achieve expansionist dreams.. The return of the prodigal son
Dr. Hassan Ayoub: Trump learned the lessons from his previous presidency and chose an administrative team that gives him greater flexibility to move freely
Dr. Hussein Al-Deek: The nature of the personalities of the new American administration indicates that the second golden age of Trump and Netanyahu has begun
Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyya: Trump’s selection of his administration team reflects an approach consistent with his previous policy and more extremism towards the Middle East
Dr. Saad Nimr: Trump's vision is consistent with the Israeli approach to reordering the Middle East, and his team tends to support the Zionist movement
Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: Trump's new term will not be similar to his previous term, especially with the significant change in global and regional circumstances
The world is awaiting the upcoming US administration of Donald Trump, which has clearly shown a continuation of his previous policies with a tendency towards extremism, especially on issues related to the Middle East and Israel, at a time when the golden age of Trump and Netanyahu has returned.
In separate interviews with “I,” writers, political analysts, academics, and specialists in American affairs believe that Trump’s new appointments reflect a desire to strengthen presidential powers, especially in foreign policy. He has chosen a team that allows him to implement his vision with broad flexibility, and highlights his tendency toward unconditional support for Israel, with the possibility of paving the way for implementing more extreme policies such as promoting annexation projects in the West Bank.
They assert that the new Trump administration, backed by a Republican majority in the Senate, reflects the beginning of the “second golden age” of Trump and Netanyahu, and that the appointments in that administration include hardline figures, especially in their positions on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with a tendency to undermine the two-state solution and blatantly support annexation projects, and even consider military steps regarding the Gaza Strip, in an effort to impose final solutions in line with Trump’s vision of consolidating Israeli control, which poses a serious threat to the Palestinian national project.
A large share for capital owners
Dr. Hassan Ayoub, a professor of political science at An-Najah University and a specialist in American affairs, believes that the appointments in the Donald Trump administration reflect the extent of the broad powers that the political system in the United States grants to the president, especially in the areas of foreign policy.
Ayoub points out that Trump, who seems to have learned the lessons of his previous presidency, has chosen an administrative team that gives him greater flexibility to move freely, allowing him to implement his vision extensively and without major internal restrictions.
Regarding the economic direction of the Trump administration, Ayoub points out that this time the Trump administration has given a large share to capitalists, which opens the way for technology companies to benefit from economic policies.
Ayoub explains that this trend reflects Trump's ideological dimension, especially with the selection of a Treasury Secretary who agrees with his economic thinking.
Ayoub asserts that the Trump administration’s orientations show hardline policies against international organizations, citing the appointment of an ambassador to the United Nations who holds tough positions towards international bodies, which portends hostile positions towards those institutions.
Trump's policies may have a clear impact on Arab and Palestinian issues
On the international and regional levels, Ayoub expects Trump's policies to have a clear impact on Arab and Palestinian issues.
Ayoub points out that appointing a Middle East peace envoy with close ties to Israel means that the Trump administration will adopt a biased approach in favor of Tel Aviv, which reinforces expectations about the major role of these appointments in passing the “deal of the century,” and perhaps more dangerous than it.
As for the policy of the expected Trump administration towards the Gaza Strip, Ayoub indicates that it will most likely depend on deals and mutual interests, while American support for Israel in the West Bank is expected to continue unconditionally and with a large area of freedom of action.
Regarding the Iranian file, Ayoub believes that the Trump administration will continue its policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran through sanctions, and he does not rule out that Israel will receive a green light to launch strikes on sensitive Iranian sites, which will increase regional tensions.
But Ayoub points out that all American administrations, despite their apparent changes, follow similar policies, with only the details differing according to current circumstances and data, without a fundamental change in approach.
Noticeable rush in preparing Trump's team
The writer, political analyst and specialist in American affairs, Dr. Hussein Al-Deek, believes that the selection of the members of the next administration by President-elect Donald Trump carries a remarkable momentum, as he shows a noticeable rush in preparing his political and governmental staff, which reflects a clear agreement between the White House and the US Congress.
According to Al-Deek, these appointments, which include ministers, ambassadors, and key advisors, will be presented for Senate hearings for approval, and these appointments will pass easily in light of the comfortable Republican majority in the Senate, which will help the new administration implement its policies smoothly.
Al-Deek explains that the names proposed for government positions indicate Trump's intention to form a strong and effective administration, as they include figures with prominent political, economic and media weight, including members of Congress and the Senate, in addition to media figures from major media platforms such as Fox News, as well as influential economic figures such as Elon Musk, which highlights the political and economic strength and media direction of this expected American administration.
Al-Deek points out that one of the most prominent features of these appointments is Trump’s choice of figures from the evangelical far-right, as the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, and the US representative to the United Nations are figures known for their hardline positions.
Al-Deek confirms that this trend by Trump reflects a clear policy on foreign issues, especially in the Middle East.
“I don’t want to rush to judgment on this administration,” says Deek, “but the staff that is being appointed with President Trump, whether they are advisors, or in the United Nations, or ministers in the government, indicates that the second golden age of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu has begun.”
Al-Deek believes that these trends are evident in the positions of these figures on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as they absolutely support Israel, including annexation projects in the West Bank, which they consider to be “Judea and Samaria” and part of the land of Israel.
Al-Deek points out that it is clear that the next US administration will continue the policies of military and economic support for Israel, similar to Trump’s first term, while strengthening these positions and increasing support absolutely, as the statements of many of the candidate figures regarding annexation and Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank reinforce this perception.
Al-Deek asserts that these positions are in line with the vision of the extremist Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, which sees Trump’s return as a historic opportunity to achieve additional gains that it was unable to achieve during previous American administrations.
Expect more measures to undermine the Palestinian national project
The next phase is expected to witness more measures to undermine the Palestinian national project, as this administration, as is likely, will seek to strengthen Israel’s control over the occupied Palestinian territories and narrow the political space for the Palestinians, including working to eliminate the right of return and reduce Palestinian influence in Jerusalem, while essential issues such as water and land will witness additional pressure on the Palestinians.
Al-Deek points out that these measures aim to liquidate the two-state solution and achieve the aspirations of the extreme Israeli right to impose full sovereignty over the West Bank.
On the international level, Al-Deek believes that the Trump administration will focus on important files such as Ukraine and Southeast Asia, and some issues, such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, may witness new initiatives to launch political paths. As for the Iranian file, the administration will seek to exert more economic pressure, and there may be an effort to renegotiate a new nuclear agreement, unless Israel imposes the option of a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Great interest in economic and military relations
Regarding relations with the Arab world, Al-Deek stresses that this administration will pay great attention to economic and military relations, given that the Arab world represents a large market for American weapons and a source of wealth, as the military industries exported to Arab countries are estimated at billions annually, which reflects the strategic direction of the administration in strengthening American economic interests in the region.
Al-Deek expects that Trump's second term will be a continuation of his previous approach, but will witness an escalation in support for Israel. The first administration witnessed Israel being granted important political and economic gifts, including recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moving the US embassy there.
The new administration, according to Al-Deek, may move forward in supporting expansionist Israeli policies, at the expense of legitimate Palestinian rights.
Al-Deek explains that the US-Israeli relationship, which is governed by geopolitical alliances and strategic interests, will remain strong under Trump’s second term, with more support for Israel at the expense of the Palestinians, which will enhance new challenges for the Palestinians and their national project in the face of these policies.
Trump's team members have strong positions.
Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyya, Professor of International Law and International Relations at the Arab American University, believes that the features of the orientations of the expected administration of US President-elect Donald Trump have appeared clearly since the beginning of his election campaign, especially when he chose his vice president and some other figures.
Abu Badawiya believes that the choices announced by Trump from the beginning, such as his ambassador to the United Nations and the Secretary of State, reflected his well-known philosophy on pivotal issues such as Ukraine and American support for it.
Abu Badawiya says: “Trump’s orientations were clear from day one, and we noticed their consistency with his vision of international and regional politics, including Middle East policies, specifically towards Iran and Israel.”
Abu Badawiya explains that members of Trump's team have strong positions, as they strongly oppose Iran and support Israel without reservation.
Abu Badawiya asserts that Trump’s choice of his team reflects an approach consistent with his previous policy, whether that which he implemented during his first term or that which he expressed during his current election campaign, which means the continuation of these trends, and perhaps their extremism, especially with regard to the Middle East.
Abu Badawiya points out that Trump strongly supports Israel and its interests, and he does not expect any change in this position, but rather he is likely to become more extreme in supporting the occupying state.
Absolute support for Israel
Abu Badawiya points out that Trump's positions towards Israel are characterised by absolute support, citing his election statements in which he criticised the Biden administration despite its unlimited support for Israel during and after the events of October 7, considering this support insufficient, and calling for no pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Abu Badawiya explains that Trump's statements have always been aimed at strengthening Israel's control, whether on the security or settlement levels.
Abu Badawiya believes that there is a possibility that Trump will return with more supportive tendencies towards Israeli annexation policies, which previously emerged in the "Deal of the Century", where he granted Israel the ability to control 40% of the West Bank.
“Trump may go beyond the deal of the century, by supporting the annexation of additional areas in the West Bank, and even considering unprecedented steps regarding the Gaza Strip, especially the northern part of the Strip,” Abu Badawiya said, noting that Trump may support Israel in achieving military gains that translate into political gains, which may include annexation or full security control over the northern Gaza Strip.
Abu Badawiya believes that Trump's approach to dealing with Israeli issues is based on "recognizing the facts on the ground," as he did previously when he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Abu Badawiya says: “Trump may use the same approach again, by imposing new facts on the international community, such as recognizing the expected annexation in the West Bank, in order to consolidate Israeli control.”
Abu Badawiya points out that this policy is in line with Trump's vision of resolving conflicts by imposing solutions, something he emphasized during his first term and his efforts to legitimize Israeli settlements.
Possibility of "political deals" related to the Gaza Strip
In this context, Abu Badawiya points to the possibility of "political deals" related to the Gaza Strip, which may include an Israeli withdrawal in exchange for international recognition of Israeli sovereignty over large parts of the West Bank.
Abu Badawiya says: “Trump may be inclined to conclude such deals, which balance withdrawal from Gaza in exchange for strategic gains in the West Bank,” stressing that Trump’s policies in the Middle East are characterized by making concessions to Israel at the expense of the Palestinians.
As for managing international policies, Abu Badawiya believes that Trump has a decisive and central personality, as he does not allow any member of his team to make unilateral decisions on major global issues.
Abu Badawiya explains that “Trump is the one who makes the final decision, whether in his relations with Europe, his policies towards China and Russia, or even his dealings with Israel. All members of his administration, from the vice president to the lowest levels, will follow his directions and revolve around his decisions.”
Abu Badawiya asserts that Trump is an unconventional president whose moves are difficult to predict, which makes his policies pivotal in shaping the features of American foreign policy.
Abu Badawiya stresses that Trump has learned lessons from his first term in office, especially regarding trade wars and tensions with European allies.
"Trump may be more flexible with Europe and China on some issues, but he will remain very tough on Middle East issues, especially in his support for Israel and his hostility to Iran," he says.
Abu Badawiya believes that this extremism may lead to a new escalation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, especially in light of Trump's unlimited support for Israel's interests, which may exacerbate the already tense situation in the region.
Trump continues his previous approach, perhaps more extreme
Dr. Saad Nimr, Professor of Political Science at Birzeit University, explains that the nature of the personalities chosen by US President Donald Trump to form his electoral and administrative team in his new presidential campaign clearly reflects the expected trends of the policies of the next administration.
Nimr explains that these figures largely belong to the same close circle that surrounded Trump during his previous term, a circle that tends to support Israel and the Zionist movement.
Nimr explains that some of these people openly boast about their Zionist positions, which indicates that the same approach is continuing, perhaps even more extreme.
Nimr asserts that these appointments will play a pivotal role in drawing up and formulating future American policies, noting that the team surrounding Trump will influence the important decisions taken by the administration, and will have an advisory role on strategic issues.
Nimr points out that the general direction of the expected Trump administration will be largely supportive of Israel, with a special focus on strengthening the interests of the United States of America in the Middle East region, which is in line with clear Zionist agendas.
Nimr points out that the Republican Party had prepared a comprehensive study, reflecting the party’s future visions and orientations, consisting of about 700 pages prepared by 38 experts and political thinkers.
What is striking about this paper, according to Nimr, is that 31 of these experts are either Zionists or have Jewish backgrounds, which clearly reflects the extent of the influence of pro-Israel ideas in shaping American policies. The study addresses three main issues related to the United States’ position on the Russian-Ukrainian war, its relations with China, and finally Middle East issues.
Nimr points to the Republican Party's vision for the Middle East, which is based on eliminating the axis of resistance, including Iran, which is accused of standing behind the axis of resistance, and re-strengthening Israel's deterrent power.
Nimr points out that this vision is completely consistent with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech before the United Nations, in which he spoke of a new Middle East in which Israel is the dominant power.
Nimr points out that, according to this strategy, the United States seeks to rearrange the situation in the Middle East region to ensure its interests, while highlighting Israel as a fundamental pillar of regional power.
Regarding Trump's positions and election speeches, Nimer points to statements made by Trump that reflect his strict vision on regional issues, including what he said about the necessity of Israel's expansion.
He explains that in the context of these statements, Trump raises questions about where Israel could expand, which raises fears that the West Bank or other areas in the regional environment, such as Lebanon, Syria, or the Jordan Valley, could be the target of this expansion.
Nimr explains that there are other statements from officials in the extreme Israeli right that confirm this trend, as they demand control of the Jordan Valley from the eastern side of the Jordan River.
Nimer points to Trump's previous statements to Netanyahu, which carried a clear tone of support, urging him to "get the job done," referring to the need to eliminate the resistance.
According to Dr. Nimr, this speech indicates that Trump’s vision is consistent with the Israeli approach to re-arranging the Middle East in a way that serves the Israeli vision.
Nimr asserts that the next Trump administration will move towards adopting more violent and repressive policies in the region, as Trump’s return to power will strengthen the American colonial policy in the Middle East, reflecting strict trends that threaten the Palestinian cause and consolidate Israeli hegemony.
Intersection with Israeli right-wing ideas on annexation
Writer and political analyst Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem believes that the choice of pro-Israel figures by US administrations is not new, but rather represents a long-standing American tradition that extends across all successive governments, and these trends are no exception, as Donald Trump has also followed the same path.
Suwailem asserts that the figures appointed to influential positions usually reflect American policies that support Israel, regardless of the ruling party, with slight differences between Republicans and Democrats in how these policies are implemented.
Suwailem explains that the hardline approach that characterizes Trump's potential team reflects the expected trends in what is known as the coming "Trumpism," a vision that intersects with the ideas of the Israeli right to annex the West Bank.
But Suwailem stresses that these American plans, despite their danger, are not an inevitable fate for the Palestinian people or the region.
Suwailem believes that what the next US administration is planning to do in terms of recognizing the annexation of the West Bank will constitute a major challenge that may embarrass Arab regimes.
Trump himself faces serious internal and external challenges.
However, Suwailem believes that Trump himself faces serious internal and external challenges, and it is not unlikely that he will seek to please the parties that funded his election campaign through decisions of a major media nature, which is expected to be the announcement of the annexation of the West Bank in the media context only.
Suwailem points out that the figures chosen by Trump will have an influential role, but the deep state in the United States, which is subject to strategic interests, will not allow any policies that may cause significant harm to American national security, the image of the United States of America, and its interests.
Suwailem warns that any proposal to annex the entire West Bank or expel the Palestinian population will ignite the situation in the region, or if there is annexation while the Palestinians remain in the West Bank, they will constitute a demographic burden on Israel, which makes these plans difficult to implement and full of complications.
Suwailem asserts that there is no fundamental difference between Trump and Biden’s policies towards Israel, as both are implementing specific plans, although Republicans openly and strongly support Israel as a racist Zionist state, while Democrats seek to strengthen its regional role.
Suwailem points out that Israel itself is going through multiple internal crises, most notably the leadership crisis and societal divisions, which is pushing it to search for ways to escape from these crises.
Suwailem believes that Trump's new term will not be similar to his previous term, especially with the significant change in global and regional circumstances. The game and its rules have changed, and the players, their role and status have changed.
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A golden Trump era to achieve expansionist dreams.. The return of the prodigal son