Amid leaks to the Israeli media about difficulties hindering the conclusion of an agreement in the Gaza Strip, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about the existence of “partial progress,” without specifying a date for the expected deal, amid warnings from Hamas about the fate of the hostages.

The negotiating scene, according to experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, will remain “fluctuating between progress and the emergence of gaps,” attributing this to “obstinacy and maneuvers” that began with Netanyahu with the aim of achieving the greatest possible gains, even if it came to obstructing the agreement a little and expanding the front of response to the Houthis in Yemen. They added: “But in any case, the prime minister will not exceed Trump’s deadline to conclude the deal before his inauguration on January 20.”

The Qatari Foreign Ministry revealed on Tuesday that the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are “ongoing,” calling on everyone to “cooperate” with the mediation, according to what was reported by Qatari media, the day after the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Monday, citing an unnamed source, that “there is no real progress in the negotiations.”

The newspaper's estimates are in line with what Israeli Channel 13 reported on Sunday, quoting Israeli officials, that "the optimism that prevailed last week regarding the possibility of formulating a preliminary agreement has dissipated due to the escalation of differences and the lack of signs of an imminent breakthrough in the talks, especially with the continued disagreement over the lists of prisoners and the Philadelphi axis on the border with Egypt."

These differences come amid the announcement by the Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine movements, in a joint statement on Saturday, that they have made progress towards reaching a ceasefire agreement, and the factions confirmed that “the possibility of reaching an agreement is closer than ever before, if the enemy stops setting new conditions,” following talks held a day earlier in Cairo.

Netanyahu, however, confirmed that some progress had been made in the ongoing negotiations, but he spoke about not knowing when the results would emerge. This was during a speech he gave in the Knesset on Monday, about the “great achievements” he had made militarily, while the leader of the Israeli opposition, Yair Lapid, accused him of being “responsible for obstructing the completion of the hostage deal.”

In light of this conflict, Palestinian political analyst Abdul Mahdi Mutawa expects that the negotiations will continue to fluctuate between declarations of progress and the existence of gaps, as Netanyahu continues to maneuver until the last moment to obtain gains, and Israel insists on obtaining a list of the names of the living and dead hostages, even though it is “a demand that delays reaching an agreement.”

A Palestinian woman is rescued from an ambulance after being injured in an Israeli airstrike in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip (AFP)

The Egyptian expert in strategic and military affairs, Major General Samir Farag, believes that Netanyahu is continuing his previous habit, whenever any agreement is close to success, of adding new conditions and obstacles, suggesting that his talk about “the existence of some progress is likely to appease the families of the hostages amid the escalating criticism against him.”

Amid these expectations of a delay in announcing a new truce agreement, US President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, warned that the new administration will never tolerate the holding of American hostages, stressing that this is completely unacceptable, and “there will be a very heavy price,” according to what was reported by “The Times of Israel” on Monday.

The Qassam Brigades, affiliated with Hamas, stated that the fate of some prisoners depends on the behavior of the Israeli forces. The spokesman for the Brigades, Abu Obeida, said in a statement that “the fate of some of the enemy’s prisoners depends on the occupation army advancing hundreds of meters in some areas that are exposed to aggression.”

Motawa does not see any interest in Hamas’ threats regarding the fate of the hostages, stressing that “the repetition of this propaganda has made it lose its importance in light of the official Israeli habituation to it without the concern of the hostages’ families making a difference… Netanyahu will also not pay any attention to the hostages or their fate, and perhaps Trump’s deadline has encouraged him even more, that the matter will end in a not-too-distant time, and thus he will work before that to enhance his personal and political gains and pressure on the negotiations.”

Faraj believes that “Hamas’ threats regarding the hostages are natural in light of the possibility of them being targeted by Israel as the war on the Gaza Strip continues,” stressing that Netanyahu will not care about that, explaining that Washington’s warnings will have no effect in protecting the hostages except with a close agreement and pressure on the Israeli Prime Minister to stop his potential escalation in the region.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz publicly acknowledged for the first time that Israel was responsible for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran last July, and threatened to take similar action against the leadership of the Houthi rebel group in Yemen.

Netanyahu may exploit the issue of striking the Houthis to turn the Gaza negotiating table, shuffle the cards, and exert additional pressure to achieve greater gains, as Mutawa expects.

Therefore, the negotiations may continue to fluctuate up and down with Netanyahu’s obstacles, according to Mutawa, adding: “But a truce will be concluded a little or a lot before Trump’s inauguration, unlike what was expected for the truce to be concluded in the coming days and before the end of the year.”

Faraj expects Netanyahu to continue maneuvering, with the possibility that he will conclude the deal close to Trump's inauguration or the first week of his taking office, in order not to give gains to the Joe Biden administration, and to make it exclusive to his ally, the new American president.