Israeli opinion: Biden's plan for the "day after the war" in Gaza: without both Sinwar and Netanyahu

Eitan Gilboa

The two conflicting statements issued by President Biden's office and by Netanyahu regarding their phone conversation indicate the growing disagreement between the United States and Israel regarding the "day after the war." Biden has said that Netanyahu has not rejected the establishment of a Palestinian state, and there is still a chance to reach an agreement on this matter. Netanyahu responded: “In any agreement in the foreseeable future, Israel must control all the lands west of Jordan. This contradicts the idea of [Palestinian] sovereignty, and I say this to the Americans.”

When Netanyahu rejected Biden's vision of a Palestinian state, he struck a nerve, especially for the Democratic Party, and after that, angry voices from Congress were not long in coming. 

Recently, the two sides have exchanged criticism and spoken privately to their bases. Netanyahu challenged Biden when he said that he is the only one who can say “no” to the President of the United States and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. It seems that this will be the main slogan that he will use in his next electoral battle. While the White House leaked that it was working on preparing a new Marshall Plan in Gaza “the next day.” 

The Biden administration assumes that elections will be held in Israel soon, and Netanyahu will not win them. But when Biden compares Hamas's rejection with the Israeli government's rejection, he specifically strengthens Netanyahu.

The United States believes that the war in Gaza could create the “Egyptian model” for a radical solution to the entire Israeli-Arab conflict, with the participation of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. In the Yom Kippur War, Egypt and Syria surprised Israel, inflicted severe losses on it, and were a reason for relying on American military assistance, and for a revolutionary change in the Israeli government and new strategic thinking. 

The American assumption is that the “massacre in the Gaza envelope,” the ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and absolute military dependence on the United States, will all lead to a similar process.

This superficial thinking ignores the significant differences between the two situations, especially the fact that Sinai, geographically, constitutes a wide barrier between the two states, and that a Palestinian state in the West Bank would be close to the city centers in Israel. President Sadat initiated the war in order to move the political process forward, and fought the Israeli army in the desert, while Hamas, which rejects any settlement with Israel and aspires to eliminate it, committed a “massacre” against Israeli citizens, and its spokesmen confirmed that they would repeat this in the future.

Since the beginning of the war, the Biden administration has been pressuring Netanyahu to determine who will have civilian control in Gaza, after expelling Hamas from there. This is also the position of the Israeli army, because the answer is very necessary for the continuation of military operations. Netanyahu not only did not respond, but he refuses to even discuss this issue in the government. Biden believes that the main reason for this is Netanyahu’s desire to maintain his government coalition with Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Therefore, he submitted to their extremist positions that call for the occupation of the entire Gaza Strip, the voluntary migration of residents, and the return of Jewish settlement there.

Biden is also forced to think about the presidential elections. Trump appears to be the Republican Party's sure candidate for the presidency, and he is leading in all opinion polls, even in the "swing states" that decide the outcome. 

The American public is also not satisfied with his performance. Netanyahu's statements against the vision of a Palestinian state have led to dangerous responses from Congress, which could affect not only the "day after", but also the continuation of the war.

The progressive wing of the Democratic Party is pressuring Biden to condition American military assistance to Israel on the Israeli government’s willingness to accept the two-state solution in principle. Progressives exploit the law that requires the use of American weapons to comply with American law and the humanitarian and international laws of war. Because of Netanyahu’s rejection of a Palestinian state, the number of senators who want to condition American military aid to Israel increased from 12 to 18 members, and even the 15 Jewish members of the US House of Representatives strongly criticized Netanyahu, and declared, “We strongly oppose the prime minister, and the two-state solution is the way forward.” 

Without congressional approval, the US President cannot send weapons to Israel.

Netanyahu's concern for his government coalition more than his concern for Israel's security and relations with the Americans endangers the war's achievements and the common goal of eliminating Hamas' authority in the Gaza Strip.