Major General Wassef Erekat: The effects of a possible Israeli strike will be determined based on its size and the damage it will inflict on Iranian targets

Yasser Manaa: The decisive factor in determining the future of the next stage is related to the type of Iranian targets that Israel will strike

Antoine Shalhat: Netanyahu is betting on Trump’s victory and may not be interested in postponing the Iran strike until after the US elections

Talal Okal: Netanyahu is trying to bypass American restrictions regarding the nature of the potential targets of the strike, which may not be delayed much

Fayez Abbas: Netanyahu seeks to achieve his dream of destroying Iranian nuclear reactors and will choose the timing of the strike carefully to serve Trump's campaign

Ahmed Zakarneh: The possibility of striking Iran before the US presidential elections will be weak according to the natural logic of the course of events

The world is awaiting the possibility of Israel launching a military strike against Iran before the upcoming US elections, and the possibility of that strike reshaping the political landscape in the Middle East or not.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts, specialists and experts believe that the effects of any Israeli strike on Iran will depend on the size of the operation and the damage it will inflict on Iranian targets, amid fears of the possibility of a comprehensive regional war breaking out as a result of the Iranian response.

They point out that targeting Iranian nuclear facilities directly remains a weak option, although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to bypass American restrictions on targeting Iranian strategic sites, taking advantage of the United States’ preoccupation with the elections to carry out the strike.

Writers, political analysts, specialists and experts indicate that the Israeli strike could include assassinations of prominent Iranian leaders or bombing sensitive industrial and military targets.

Controversy over Israeli Air Force readiness to strike Iran

Military and security expert, retired Major General Wassef Erekat, explains that there is an ongoing debate about the readiness of the Israeli Air Force to carry out a military strike against Iran, as many Israeli leaders, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are seeking to accelerate this strike before the upcoming US presidential elections, for reasons related to influencing those elections and avoiding internal criticism from the opposition, which fears that postponing the strike will lead to its complete cancellation.

However, Erekat confirms that there are several indicators that indicate the possibility of postponing this strike until after the US elections, the first of which is the continuous change in the target bank, which highlights the Israeli leadership’s hesitation in making the final decision regarding executing the strike despite announcing its readiness.

Erekat points out that the second of these indicators is the statements of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, which confirmed the difficulty of predicting the form that the Israeli strike against Iran will take, indicating that the vision is not yet clear.

A third indicator, according to Erekat, is the leaks related to the Israeli plans for the strike, which prompted the American side to open an investigation into them. The fourth is the faltering of military operations on the northern Israeli front, especially with the delay in the ground invasion in this axis. The fifth is obtaining guarantees of military and political support from the United States, which is essential, as Israel relies heavily on the support of its American ally in such operations.

Deployment of the THAAD system within the framework of the US commitment to protect Israel

Regarding the US sending the THAAD missile defense system to Israel, Erekat explains that the goal of this step is that it comes within the framework of the US commitment to protect Israel and ensure its military superiority over its neighbors in the region. Providing Israel with this system also aims to enhance its deterrence capability and reassure the Israeli leadership in the event that Iran responds to any Israeli attack. This step also aims to influence the Israeli target bank and avoid striking nuclear facilities and vital energy sources in Iran.

As for the possible scenarios for an Israeli attack on Iran, Erekat points out that if there is an Israeli commitment not to target Iranian nuclear reactors and oil facilities, this opens the door to several scenarios, the most important of which are: carrying out assassinations against prominent Iranian leaders using agents or aircraft, or targeting industrial facilities with missiles. The strike may also include bombing military and civilian airports, and perhaps targeting sensitive camps and facilities belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or the army, in addition to striking communications centers, bridges, and other vital targets.

Regarding the size of the potential Israeli strike, Erekat explains that this depends on the specific target. If the target includes striking several Iranian sites, the operation will require the use of a large number of aircraft and missiles, in addition to refueling aircraft and others for early warning and control. However, the question remains as to whether Israel will carry out the strike in the form of a single comprehensive attack or in multiple stages.

The repercussions of the strike are determined based on its size.

As for the potential repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran, Erekat explains that the effects of the strike will be determined based on its size and the damage it will inflict on Iranian targets.

Erekat points out that Iran had threatened that any Israeli attack would be met with a strong response from its side, which could lead to things getting out of control and dragging the region into a comprehensive war, according to Erekat's estimates.

Timing and nature of the strike

Writer and expert on Israeli affairs Yasser Manna points out that Israel has already made a decision to launch a military strike against Iran, but the main question remains about the timing and nature of this strike.

Manaa explains that the United States is seeking to postpone any Israeli attack on Iran so that it does not coincide with the upcoming presidential elections, as a military strike before or during the elections could negatively affect their results. The ruling Democratic Party currently fears that escalation would alienate Arab and Muslim voters in the United States, which would enhance the chances of Republican candidate Donald Trump returning to the White House.

Regarding the potential Iranian targets of the Israeli strike, Manaa believes that targeting Iranian military sites or government facilities is the most likely scenario.

But Manaa believes that targeting Iran's nuclear facilities directly remains a weak option in the absence of full American participation, as a partial strike may not succeed in destroying the Iranian nuclear project completely, which may push Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program at an increasing pace in response to the attack.

Manna discusses the potential economic impacts of any strike targeting Iranian oil facilities, stressing that this type of strike would lead to a global rise in fuel prices, which would affect not only the global economy, but also the Israeli and American economies, as both are greatly affected by fluctuations in energy prices.

Important messages behind the deployment of the THAAD system

In the context of air defenses, Manna points to the deployment of the American THAAD system in Israel, explaining that this move sends important messages, the first of which is that the deployment of this system indicates that Israeli air defenses are not completely immune as was previously promoted, and that their defensive capabilities may be exaggerated.

The second message, according to Manaa, is that the deployment of THAAD shows that the United States is actually participating in the conflict, not just providing financial or intelligence support. This confirms that the Iranian attacks against Israel were painful and caused great damage, but were not officially announced, perhaps for political reasons or to avoid showing Israeli weakness.

Unprecedented conflict in the region

Regarding the nature of the ongoing conflict in the region, Manaa points out that it is unprecedented in terms of its nature and multiple arenas, stressing that the coming transformations may be surprising and unexpected.

Manaa stresses that the decisive factor in determining the future of the next stage is related to the type of targets that Israel will choose to strike in Iran. Will the strikes be limited and focused, or will they target broader strategic sites?

Manaa believes that Iran has been able to establish a deterrence equation in the region, which means that any Israeli attack will be met with an immediate and appropriate response.

This balance, according to Manaa, forces Israel to deal with extreme caution, especially since the Iranian response has become a fixed policy through which Tehran seeks to confirm its ability to protect its interests and deter threats. As a result, Israel was forced to modify its military strategy, especially with regard to separating the fronts.

In the media context, Manna points out that Israel is trying to portray the integration of the various fronts as serving its interests in gathering international support against Iran.

Manaa explains that targeting the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was part of a media campaign aimed at portraying Iran as an international threat that requires a collective response.

The "Hidden Wars" Between Israel and Iran

Manna deals with the "hidden wars" between Israel and Iran, which include unconventional confrontations that extend to other areas, such as water warfare, mutual attacks on oil tankers and commercial ships, and cyber warfare.

Manaa points out that these ongoing confrontations, away from the media spotlight, play an important role in escalating tensions between the two countries and shaping the future conflict.

Netanyahu not interested in postponing strike until after elections

Israeli writer and political analyst Antoine Shalhat points out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is betting heavily on former US President Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election, and therefore he may be interested in not postponing a strike on Iran until after the election.

However, Shalhat explains that Netanyahu needs a full green light from the United States before embarking on any military action, because Israel will be in dire need of American support in the event of a strong Iranian response, and the situation is very complex and requires complete agreement between the two sides.

Sending THAAD reflects Israel's inability to fully protect itself

Regarding the US sending the THAAD missile defense system to Israel, Shalhat believes that this step clearly reflects the fact that Israel is unable to fully protect itself in the event of a large-scale Iranian attack.

Shalhat points out that this system is evidence that the United States remains Israel's primary protector, and that Israeli defenses are not as strong as they claim.

As for the potential targets of an Israeli strike on Iran, Shalhat believes that what is being circulated indicates the possibility of targeting Iranian military facilities or high-level leaders, or perhaps both.

Shalhat believes that what is being circulated is that there are directives from the United States and some Arab countries to avoid targeting Iranian nuclear facilities or oil facilities, and that Israel has responded to those directives so far, but despite what is being circulated, Israel may not respond.

However, Shalhat believes that there is a possibility that Israel will ignore these directives, especially after Netanyahu directly accused Iran of trying to assassinate him. This accusation came after his private home in Caesarea was targeted by a drone launched from Lebanon earlier this week. This development may push Netanyahu to act more aggressively, perhaps including expanding the range of potential targets.

Escalating friction between Israel and Iran

As for the repercussions of this potential strike, Shalhat believes that the escalation of friction between Israel and Iran will be the immediate result of the strike.

However, Shalhat explains that the next stage will depend largely on the size and impact of the Israeli strike on Iran, as well as on Iran's response.

According to Shalhat, if Tehran chooses to respond forcefully, the conflict could develop into a large-scale war involving several arenas.

Shalhat points out that Iran currently seems uninterested in entering into a comprehensive war, and neither does the United States, while Netanyahu appears not to fear this scenario and does not take it seriously.

Green light from Biden

Writer and political analyst Talal Okal believes that the Israeli strike against Iran may not be delayed much, especially after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received the green light from US President Joe Biden.

This green light, according to Awkal, was not limited to political approval only, but extended to American military preparations in the region, where the THAAD missile defense systems were deployed, designed to counter ballistic missiles, which confirms the existence of an American-Israeli military partnership in this context.

Awkal believes that Netanyahu is trying to bypass American restrictions regarding the nature of the potential targets of the strike, as he seeks to target Iranian facilities of strategic importance.

Okal points out that Netanyahu believes that such goals will force Iran to respond, which will open the door to a wider regional escalation, which he seeks to do to drag the region into an ongoing war.

According to Okal, although Netanyahu appears on the surface to be giving American diplomatic efforts a chance, his conditions make it difficult to make progress in those efforts, which means that those efforts are likely to fail, but indirectly.

Okal expects that Netanyahu is planning to launch the strike before the upcoming US presidential elections, as he believes that the lack of impact of the US decision due to preoccupation with the elections provides a suitable opportunity to carry out the attack while ensuring that US objections are reduced.

The moment may be right for Netanyahu to realize an "old dream."

Awkal points out that Netanyahu believes that this moment may be an opportunity to realize an “old dream” of striking Iran’s nuclear reactors, which will present his Western allies with a fait accompli. If he succeeds, Netanyahu will appear as a brave leader who has achieved what Western countries have failed to achieve through diplomacy, making him a hero in the eyes of some, especially in Arab countries that fear Iran’s nuclear program.

According to Okal, what Netanyahu is planning goes beyond a mere tactical strike, as he seeks to drag Iran and the entire region into a large-scale war.

Awkal believes that Netanyahu believes that launching a strategic strike against Iran will force Tehran to respond, which will lead to broad repercussions that may include the involvement of other regional and international parties in the vortex of war. In this sense, Netanyahu seems to be setting his sights not only on confronting Iran, but also on bringing the entire region into the circle of conflict, which could radically change the shape of the political and military map of the Middle East.

Washington will be a partner to Israel in the event of a strike on Iran

Israeli affairs expert Fayez Abbas explains that the timing of a potential Israeli strike on Iran remains uncertain, but it is certain that the attack will happen, and perhaps soon.

Abbas points out that the US Department of Defense has completed the deployment of the air defense system in Israel, which will completely cover Israeli airspace, and that Israel has also completed its contacts with countries in the region to ensure regional support in the event of an attack.

Regarding partnership with the United States, Abbas stresses that Washington will be a partner to Israel if it strikes Iran, as it was in its wars against Gaza and Lebanon.

He points out that American soldiers will be the ones operating the air defense system that is now ready. This coordination shows the extent of the close alliance between the two sides, especially with regard to major military operations.

Regarding the timing of the strike, Abbas believes that the US presidential elections will be an influential factor, as Netanyahu, who supports Republican candidate Donald Trump, may choose the timing of the strike carefully to serve Trump’s election campaign, especially after Netanyahu informed Trump that he does not listen to President Joe Biden’s instructions, and therefore the strike is likely to be carried out before the US elections.

Regarding the nature of the strike, Abbas points out that Netanyahu is seeking to achieve his old dream of destroying Iran's nuclear reactors, stressing that he had previously promised that Iran would not be able to produce a nuclear bomb, and he sees this strike as a historic opportunity to fulfill this promise. The potential strike will be very painful for Iran, but the Iranian response will be no less severe for Israel.

However, Abbas believes that American and Western support for Israel will mitigate the impact of the Iranian response, as it is expected that Iran will be responded to through economic and political strikes, in addition to imposing strict international sanctions that may harm the Iranian economy and affect its regional influence.

Netanyahu was keen not to miss the opportunity to strike the Iranian nuclear project.

Writer and political analyst Ahmed Zakarneh explains that the possibility of Israel carrying out a military strike against Iran before the US presidential elections will be weak for logical reasons.

Zakarneh points out that the first reason is the Israeli need to ensure US partnership in the event that Iran responds to the Israeli strike, as US partnership is necessary to ensure military and political support in such a sensitive operation.

The second reason, according to Zakarneh, is related to the US presidential elections themselves, as Donald Trump’s victory and return to the White House will give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more support, even though Netanyahu has already agreed with the position of the administration of Democratic US President Joe Biden, and the sending of the THAAD missile defense system is the best evidence of this.

Zakarneh explains that the US sending the THAAD system to Israel reflects Netanyahu’s keenness not to miss the opportunity to strike the Iranian nuclear project, as the goal of this attack will be to deliver a major and direct blow, either to the nuclear reactor, without affecting any nuclear warheads “if any”, which requires high accuracy and effectiveness, or he will submit to American and European pressure to lower the ceiling of his aspirations from this strike, towards a painful strike on the Iranian state, without affecting its nuclear project, for fear of expanding the circle of conflict.

Zakarneh points out that the delivery of this system strengthens Israel's defenses against any possible Iranian response, and confirms the United States' commitment to providing full military support to Israel.

The Israeli attack will be major.

As for the size of the expected Israeli strike against Iran, Zakarneh believes that the attack will be large in any case, whether it includes targeting the nuclear reactor or not.

According to Zakarneh, the main goal of this strike will be to achieve two main things: the first is to harm Iran's non-nuclear capabilities, and the second is to prevent it from being able to respond more broadly than the last strike.

Regarding the repercussions of a possible Israeli strike on Iran, Zakarneh points out that the Iranian state, according to its statements and declarations, will respond regardless of the size of the strike it will receive, and that this response will play a fundamental role in shaping the features of the next stage.

Zakarna believes that the Iranian strike will ignite the region in an unprecedented way, and this war will not end until one of the parties is defeated, and the battlefield will become the main arbiter of dominance over the region, if the active and influential countries in the region do not move in a way that serves their interests away from the project of the two conflicting parties, and without giving up Palestinian national rights, which is what the recent Saudi and Egyptian moves are pushing for.

Zakarneh believes that Netanyahu made a mistake in managing the Israeli surplus of power, as the failure to optimally use this military superiority necessarily leads to a security deficit in the short and long term, which we can notice when we follow the successive strikes from the northern front, where Hezbollah is regaining the initiative, while the Israeli forces are finding it extremely difficult to reach their targets in the northern Gaza Strip, due to the fierce resistance they are facing despite a full year of targeting all aspects of life in the Strip. In other words, Israel’s military power was a valuable opportunity that was not properly exploited by this extreme right-wing government, and its arrogance has created and continues to create unprecedented security challenges since the establishment of the Israeli state after the Nakba in 1948.