ARAB AND WORLD
Fri 01 Dec 2023 2:09 pm - Jerusalem Time
Newspaper: Israel is studying the “Beirut 1982 scenario” to shorten the Gaza war
In a report published by the Wall Street Journal, the newspaper notes that “as Israeli forces prepare for a renewed attack targeting senior Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip, Israeli military and political leaders face the challenge of what to do about the thousands of fighters who represent the group’s power base.” .
To meet this challenge, according to the report, “some Israeli and American officials are discussing the idea of expelling thousands of low-level militants from the Palestinian enclave as a way to shorten the war. This idea is reminiscent of the US-brokered agreement that allowed Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and thousands of fighters to flee Beirut during the siege.” Israeli forces invaded the Lebanese capital in 1982.
It points out that the idea of getting rid of Hamas militants comes as part of the Israeli and American talks regarding who will administer Gaza when the war ends and what can be done to ensure that the region is not used as a launching pad for another attack similar to the October 7 attack.
“One proposal for how to govern post-Hamas Gaza, drawn up by the Israeli Military Research Center and seen by the Wall Street Journal, would begin with the creation of so-called ‘Hamas-free safe zones’ to be governed by a new authority in Gaza backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”
According to the newspaper, "The American-Israeli discussions about expelling Hamas militants and their families from the Gaza Strip aim to give them an exit strategy and facilitate the rebuilding of Gaza once the fighting ends."
Before the war began, Israel estimated that Hamas had about 30,000 militants in the Gaza Strip, and subsequently vowed to kill its senior leaders and any members who participated in the October 7 attacks.
The newspaper notes that this huge number of Hamas militants in Gaza prompted Israeli officials to apply the Beirut model to deal with them and their families.
It is noteworthy that in 1982, Israeli occupation forces besieged Beirut in an attempt to weaken the power of the Palestine Liberation Organization in Lebanon. “The two-month siege and intense Israeli bombing of Beirut led to disagreements between Israel and the United States, which brokered an agreement to end the fighting by allowing Yasser Arafat and About 11,000 Palestinian fighters to leave Lebanon and head to Tunisia.
But the newspaper confirms that it has not yet been discussed whether senior Hamas leaders, such as the movement's leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and military commander Muhammad Deif, will be allowed to leave because of their role in planning the October 7 attacks.
It adds: "Leaving Gaza will be fundamentally different for Palestinian militants today than leaving Lebanon in 1982, given that they were 'visitors' in Beirut, compared to the Gaza Strip, which is considered their home."
The newspaper quotes a senior Israeli official as saying that it is not clear whether Hamas militants would choose the option of exile, if offered to them, adding: “I do not think they are as rational as the Palestine Liberation Organization. It (Hamas) is a more religious jihadist organization linked to the ideas of Iran.” .
The official confirmed to the newspaper that there is currently no "practical discussion" to remove Hamas militants, but he said that if Israel leaves Hamas no other option, this option may become possible.
The newspaper attributes Randa Slim, director of the Conflict Resolution and Track Two Dialogues Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, as saying, “Some Hamas militants may be willing to consider the idea if their leaders are killed.” However, she pointed out that the idea in general faces many obstacles that may make it "Impractical."
Moving forward with the proposal requires obtaining the support of countries willing to accept hosting Hamas militants, whose senior leaders are located in places such as Turkey, Qatar, Iran, Russia and Lebanon, according to the newspaper.
The newspaper also points out that “the issue of whether the militants will be able to leave with their families must also be dealt with, and this also requires that Hamas trust Israel’s ability to respect any commitments it makes in the deal, such as agreeing not to target the militants once they leave Gaza.”
Saleem says: “I think this is unrealistic today given the current state of conflict... but things may develop in the future.”
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Newspaper: Israel is studying the “Beirut 1982 scenario” to shorten the Gaza war