As soon as the extent of the Israeli losses among the military and civilian ranks became clear, and the various forms of the Netanyahu government’s negligence became apparent, specialized analysts, especially senior retired military officers, on the main Israeli television channels and in other media outlets, came forward to criticize the government and Netanyahu.

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As the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip continues, the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds itself facing many internal challenges, the most prominent of which is the lack of confidence in it among a large segment of the Israeli public. The position of Israeli public opinion towards the government and its president is determined by two basic factors: the judicial coup that Netanyahu’s government has begun to implement since its formation on December 29, 2022, and the Al-Aqsa Flood operation that, on October 7, 2023, shook Israeli society and threw its leaders off balance.

First: Questions about failure

ince the beginning of the year 2023, Israeli society has witnessed a long and bitter conflict and severe political and social polarization that it had never seen before, following the Netanyahu government’s initiation of the judicial coup, which aimed to weaken the judiciary and subject it to the executive authority. To rule without checks and balances; This is despite the opposition of the majority of Israeli society and its various elites, especially the military establishment, to the judicial coup. The intense conflict between the Netanyahu government, the protest movement, and the entire anti-government camp led to a decline in the popularity of Netanyahu and his government coalition.

The Al-Aqsa Flood operation, which occurred when the conflict within Israeli society was at its most intense, did not only lead to the collapse of the Netanyahu government’s strategy and its overall perceptions and assumptions regarding the Gaza Strip, but it also led to an increase in the Israelis’ loss of confidence in the government and its president, and to a decline in its popularity and his popularity, reaching rock bottom. 

The majority of Israeli society held it responsible for the negligence and failure that occurred on October 7, and then its failure to deal with the results of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in various areas: such as delaying access to the dead and wounded Israelis, inability to recognize their names, and confusion in identifying The number of Israeli prisoners and missing persons, and the delay in providing aid, especially economic aid, to the kibbutzim and towns that were attacked and located adjacent to Gaza.

As soon as the extent of the Israeli losses among the military and civilian ranks became clear, and the various forms of negligence of the Netanyahu government became apparent, specialized analysts, especially senior retired military officers, rose up on the main Israeli television channels and in other media outlets to criticize the government and Netanyahu, and held him responsible for the negligence and failure in confronting the Al-Aqsa flood operation, and in dealing with its consequences. 

Many specialized analysts, especially senior retired military officers, have linked the judicial coup led by the Netanyahu government to the major failure on October 7. These analysts focused on the warnings directed by the leaders of the military and security establishment to Netanyahu about the dangers of a judicial coup against the military and security establishments, and on his rejection of these warnings. They held him and his government responsible, and some of them called on him to resign immediately, before the end of the war. 

In this atmosphere, and at a time when the discourse of critics of the government remained dominant in the media, from specialized analysts or from the families of the dead and missing, and residents of kibbutzim and towns that were subjected to attacks and losses, the appearance of ministers in the central Israeli media decreased. Netanyahu or his ministers did not dare to visit these kibbutzim and towns, or participate in the funerals of the dead Israelis, or visit their families to condole them, or visit the wounded in hospitals.

Second: Public opinion trends

The first public opinion poll, conducted by Maariv newspaper after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, showed the extent to which the operation and its results affected the popularity of Netanyahu and his government. It is clear from this poll, which was conducted five days after the operation and published on October 13, that the parties of the government coalition led by Netanyahu, which has 64 seats in the current Knesset, will obtain only 42 seats if the Knesset elections are held. As for the parties The opposition will obtain 78 seats, including 10 seats for the Arab parties, noting that the government coalition parties obtained 55 seats in the previous Maariv poll, which it conducted several days before the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, compared to 65 seats for the opposition parties[1].

This poll also showed that the Official (National) Camp Party, led by Benny Gantz, won 41 seats in the Knesset (it had obtained 29 seats in the previous poll conducted several days before the Al-Aqsa Flood operation), and 19 seats for the Likud Party (28 seats). In the previous poll), 15 seats for the Yesh Atid Party (16 seats in the previous poll), 7 seats for the Shas Party (10 seats in the previous poll), 7 seats for the United Torah Judaism Party (7 seats in the previous poll), and 6 seats for the Meretz Party (4 seats In the previous poll), 10 seats were given to Arab parties (10 seats in the previous poll). It is noted in this poll that Gantz’s party, which is supported by the military establishment, is the biggest winner after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. In just a week, its number of seats increased by 12 seats, while the biggest loser was the Likud Party, which declined by 9 seats. The number of seats for the Jewish Power and Religious Zionist parties also declined.

This means that the rising powers are the right-wing nationalist forces with a secular-military tendency, and are led by generals who have previously criticized Israeli governments, including Netanyahu’s governments, by hesitating in wars on Gaza, and not daring to eliminate the Islamic Resistance Movement “Hamas” and being content with a balance of deterrence with it.

As for Netanyahu's popularity, it has witnessed a severe decline. In answering the question: “Who is better and more suitable for the position of prime minister, Netanyahu or Gantz?”, 48 percent answered that Gantz is better, compared to 29 percent for Netanyahu. In answer to the question: “Who do you want to be prime minister after the war ends, Netanyahu or someone else?”, only 21 percent reported that they wanted Netanyahu, compared to 66 percent who wanted someone else. It is noteworthy that only 46 percent of those voting for the Likud Party said that they want Netanyahu, compared to 34 percent of them who preferred someone else[2].

Another public opinion poll published by Maariv, on October 20, one week after its previous poll, showed similar results for the government coalition parties, which obtained 43 seats, and the opposition parties, which obtained 77 seats (including 10 For Arab parties)[3]. This poll showed that 80 percent of Israelis believe that Netanyahu should bear responsibility for the failure and negligence on October 7. 

The same thing was done, in the days preceding the survey, by the leaders of the military and security establishment, including the Minister of Security, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, the Head of Military Intelligence (AMAN), and the Head of General Intelligence (Shin Bet). According to this poll, 48 percent saw Gantz as the most suitable for the position of prime minister, compared to only 28 percent for Netanyahu[4].

The results of the Maariv poll, published on October 27, 2023, were similar to its previous poll a week earlier, and its subsequent poll, published in November 2023[5].

A public opinion poll broadcast by Israeli Channel 13 on November 3 showed that 56 percent of Israelis do not trust Netanyahu in managing the war on Gaza, compared to 28 percent who trust him[6]. On October 7, 44 percent held Netanyahu responsible for the negligence and failure, while 33 percent held the Chief of Staff and senior army commanders responsible for this, and only 5 percent held it on Defense Minister Yoav Galant. 76 percent believed that Netanyahu should resign as prime minister, and 47 percent believed that this resignation should occur after the end of the war, while 29 percent believed that it should occur immediately, and only 18 percent believed that Netanyahu should continue to carry out his duties, 64 percent expressed the necessity of holding new elections for the Knesset when the war ends, compared to 26 percent who opposed holding elections before their date. 68 percent believed that the government’s handling of the economic situation after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation was not good, compared to 19 percent who said it was good. 74 percent supported the formation of an official, independent investigation committee with broad powers after the war to investigate the failure, compared to 12 percent who supported the formation of a government investigation committee with limited powers[7].

Conclusion

Israeli public opinion polls, conducted since Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the start of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, indicate that Netanyahu and his government coalition continue to lose the confidence of the Israelis, and a decline in his popularity and that of the Likud Party. 

The prevailing assumption in Israeli public opinion and its various elites has become that Netanyahu's political future is almost over. Netanyahu feels in grave danger (he is still on trial in three corruption cases); not only because of the decline in his popularity and the popularity of his party and government coalition, but also because of the decline in his popularity among Likud Party supporters and voters. Public opinion polls show that more than a third of the party's voters want someone else as prime minister instead of Netanyahu when the war ends. Add to this the noticeable increase in restlessness among many members of the Knesset from the Likud Party, and some of its ministers, who criticize it and demand that it bear responsibility for failure, through numerous leaks in the Israeli media. In light of the internal conflict that Netanyahu is waging with members of his party on the one hand, and with the leaders of the military establishment on the other hand, the war on Gaza may be prolonged. If Israel is forced to stop the war, Defense Minister Yoav Galant and the military establishment are likely to accuse Netanyahu of stopping the war before it achieved its goals of eliminating Hamas and its rule in Gaza. It is clear that the alternatives currently proposed combine extreme nationalist positions, secularism, and militarism.

[1] “The coalition is collapsing, Likud is only 19, and Gantz is on the rise,” Maariv, 10/13/2023. (in Hebrew)

[2] Ibid.

[3] “Unprecedented data: Gantz opens a gap over Netanyahu in his suitability to head the government,” Maariv, 10/20/2023. (in Hebrew)

[4] Ibid.

[5] Maariv Poll, 11/3/2023.

[6] “Channel 13 News Poll: Who is responsible for the negligence, and should Netanyahu resign?”, Channel 13, 11/3/2023, viewed on 11/7/2023, at: https://tinyurl.com/2bxmnxs2 ( in Hebrew)

[7] Ibid.