The Sudanese army, led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan , and the Rapid Support Forces, led by Lieutenant General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as "Hemedti", have been fighting bloody battles in Khartoum and other cities since April 15th.

The clashes killed more than 400 people and injured more than 3,500, in a toll that is expected to rise.

Who are the two conflicting parties, and what are the goals of each?

According to the "Military Balance Plus" base for military data and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the number of the army is estimated at 100,000, while the support forces include 40,000.

However, some experts estimate the support forces to be around 100,000, but they maintain the numerical superiority in favor of the army.

After nearly a week of fierce battles, it does not seem that any side has achieved significant field progress at the expense of the other.

Alex de Val, a researcher on African affairs, believes that the two sides have "the same size and the same fighting ability."

The fighting erupted against a background of a discrepancy between the two military commanders over the method of integrating the Rapid Support Forces into the armed forces, knowing that thousands of "support" members were among groups accused of committing abuses known as the "Janjaweed" formed by former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who was overthrown by a military coup in 2019. .

Al-Burhan wanted the merger process to take place within two years, and the criteria for recruitment into the army would be adopted. For his part, Daglo pushed for a ten-year extension, with the dead keeping their ranks after the merger.

While the army and support forces used to be "comrades in arms" against rebel groups in the governorates of Sudan, the current battles pit them not only against each other, but also in a field they do not fully know: Khartoum.

Ali Faraji, a researcher at the Rift Valley Institute, believes that both sides of the current confrontation "seem unwilling to back down."

He considers that the Rapid Support Forces "wants to prolong the conflict" in order to deplete the limited capabilities of the army's air force and thus disarm a basic weapon from the hands of the opposing side, which is control of the skies.

On the other hand, the army - according to the researcher - wants to "weaken the Rapid Support Forces as soon as possible," considering that "if the army relieves pressure, the support forces can hold out for a longer period."

Jihan Henry, an American lawyer defending human rights and following up on the Sudan file, warns of more than one "catastrophic scenario".

Among these scenarios is "the army's victory and Al-Burhan and his comrades reinstalling the Islamists of the previous regime," and international pressure ignored them, as the military had previously done during the years of siege during the era of Al-Bashir, who established an Islamic-military regime until his overthrow.

And Henry believes that they can resort to "flimsy appearances, such as appointing some civilians allied with them."

As for the other possible scenario, it is that the Rapid Support Forces will not be handed over "easily, and they will be able to prolong the conflict by allying with other armed groups in provinces far from Khartoum."

Many regional and international roles have intersected in the decades-old crises that Sudan has witnessed, and diplomatic missions and international organizations have organized discussions, sometimes between Khartoum and southern Sudanese fighters to divide the country, and at other times between civilians and the military to share power after the overthrow of Bashir.
The current crisis is no exception.

The northern neighbor, Egypt, which has a strong influence, "supports the army and has interests in Sudan, especially with regard to the Nile waters and the agricultural sector," according to Henry.

As for the southern neighbor, Ethiopia, "it has its own interests, including confronting Egypt," and may therefore choose to side with the Rapid Support Forces, according to the same analyst.

Henry also notes that the UAE, "which supports Daglo because he participated in the military coalition led by Saudi Arabia (and which included Abu Dhabi) in Yemen, may have provided the RSF with weapons."

To the west, the deserts of Chad and Libya, which border the stronghold of Dagalo, the Darfur region, are potential passages for ammunition and mercenaries.

And the research "International Crisis Group" warned that "even if the army eventually regains control of the capital and Dagolo withdraws to Darfur, a civil war may break out," and with it "the possibility of destabilization in neighboring countries: Chad, the Central African Republic, Libya and South Sudan, which are already affected at various levels." of violence."