Adnan Al-Sabah: The resistance axis has two options: either turn Nasrallah’s assassination into a tragedy or into a victory

Hani Abu Al-Sabaa: Targeting Nasrallah indicates Israeli insistence on changing the political reality in Lebanon

Firas Yaghi: Israel seeks to undermine Hezbollah from within by targeting its leaders, destroying its weapons depots, and striking its popular base

Dr. Saad Nimr: Israel sought to demonstrate its deterrent power and involve America in a regional war to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program

Fayez Abbas: The question now is how Israel was able in a short period of time to annihilate the military and political leadership of Hezbollah?

Hezbollah had barely absorbed the Israeli strikes that targeted many of its military leaders, such as: Wissam Hassan Tawil, Sami Taleb Abdullah, Fouad Shukr, Ibrahim Aqil, Muhammad Surur and others, when the assassination of its Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, occurred on Friday afternoon in a planned bombing operation with F-35 aircraft and the latest American missiles designed to penetrate fortifications, which targeted Hezbollah’s headquarters, during a meeting of its leadership staff in the southern suburb of the capital, Beirut.

Despite Hezbollah's extreme secrecy after the unprecedentedly severe attack took place after six o'clock in the afternoon on Friday, the occupation army confirmed yesterday morning, Saturday, that it had succeeded in assassinating Nasrallah, while Hezbollah mourned its Secretary-General, the martyred leader Hassan Nasrallah, in an official statement in the afternoon without revealing the identity of the martyrs who were also targeted in the assassinations.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts and specialists believe that Israel seeks, through this successive attack on Lebanon, especially the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the assassination of Nasrallah, to deal a strong moral blow to Hezbollah, its supporters and its popular base, and to exploit the first anniversary of the events of October 7 as an opportunity to confirm its control in the region and break the symbols of the resistance.

Writers, analysts and specialists explained that these attacks come as part of an Israeli strategy aimed at changing the equation in the region and striking the resistance movements, especially in Lebanon, Syria and Palestine. Israel is also interested in dragging the United States into a war that could expand into a regional war.

The sensitivity and danger of the northern front

Writer and political analyst Adnan Al-Sabah said: Expectations indicated that the Israeli occupation would escalate in Lebanon, and whoever thought otherwise had his calculations wrong.

Al-Sabah pointed out that Israel is fully aware of the danger of the northern front, and that its focus on confronting Gaza only is not useful, because the continued strength of Hezbollah poses an increasing threat to Israel from the north.

He added: Israel targeted the southern suburb of Beirut intensively and continuously because it is a stronghold of Hezbollah, in an attempt to strike the party's leadership and its popular base.

Al-Sabah pointed out that the occupation cannot apply the same methods it used in Gaza to Lebanon, because Lebanon is a sovereign state and has relations with influential countries, which makes the escalation there completely different, and therefore it is not possible to reach the heart of Beirut except through strikes of this type.

Al-Sabah explained that the Israeli escalation in Lebanon came with the aim of restoring the Israeli deterrent force that was affected, as Israel seeks to achieve accomplishments before the first anniversary of October, as it wants to turn that anniversary into a victory for it and suffering for the axis of resistance.

Al-Sabah considered that Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, has become a global symbol of resistance, and the world is awaiting his words with interest, and for this reason Israel sought to target him not only in person, but also in his symbolism and ideas.

In this context, Al-Sabah believes that Nasrallah's martyrdom is a great loss, as he was viewed as one of the wise men of the nation and the resistance, and it was necessary to analyze his speeches in depth.

Hezbollah will stand firm and grow stronger after Nasrallah

He added: "Despite Nasrallah's assassination, Hezbollah will continue to stand firm and grow stronger, as ideological resistance movements are not greatly affected by the loss of their leaders, and adherence to the organization's approach may even appear stronger."

Al-Sabah expected a greater escalation by Israel against Lebanon and Hezbollah in the coming period after the assassination of Nasrallah, stressing that the axis of resistance has two options: either to turn Nasrallah’s martyrdom into a tragedy, or to turn it into a victory and greater escalation with the occupation.

Al-Sabah addressed the speech of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the United Nations General Assembly, considering it a declaration of war on Lebanon from the heart of the United Nations, including what was included in the speech.

Al-Sabah pointed out that Iran, despite its close relationship with Hezbollah, may not intervene directly in this war, despite its support and reserve for the resistance, basing his belief on previous statements by the martyr Hassan Nasrallah, who indicated that he did not want Iran to intervene, because this intervention might require American intervention, which would complicate the situation, and Iran has been facing an economic blockade for many years, and has major economic problems that affect its capabilities.

Al-Sabah expected that Israel would move towards carrying out a ground attack on southern Lebanon, but it might not reach Beirut, so the strikes were on the southern suburb.

Al-Sabah pointed out that Israel seeks, through the ground attack on southern Lebanon, to remove Hezbollah from the northern borders of occupied Palestine and provide security for the settlements established in the north.

Harming Hezbollah's popular base

In turn, the writer and political analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, Hani Abu Al-Sabaa, said: The Israeli air raids on the southern suburb, in which bunker-busting missiles were used and which led to the martyrdom and injury of hundreds, aim to send a bloody message to Hezbollah’s popular base, as Israel believes that this base, which felt safe in the suburb, helped provide a suitable environment for the work of the party’s cadres.

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that these violent strikes aim to dismantle this popular incubator and make it feel that its support for Hezbollah carries dire consequences.

Abu Al-Sabaa pointed out that Israel is trying, through its media, to convey the idea that the world will be better after eliminating Hezbollah.

Abu Al-Sabaa expressed his belief that Hezbollah's delay in announcing the fate of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah may be linked to internal security arrangements, as the party must quickly fill this void and send a clear message confirming the continuation of the resistance line.

He believes that targeting Nasrallah indicates an Israeli insistence on changing the political reality in Lebanon, in line with Israel's goals of creating an environment capable of coexisting with it.

Abu Al-Sabaa referred to the statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government ministers, who repeatedly stressed that Israel will continue targeting Iran's arms in the region until it cuts all ties with Tehran.

Disabling control towers at Beirut airport

Abu Al-Sabaa pointed to the recent step taken by Israel to disable the control towers at Beirut International Airport to prevent Iranian flights, stressing that this step comes within the framework of its vision to change the situation in Lebanon, a vision that Israel says it has obtained implicit approval from the US administration, despite the latter’s opposition to any ground invasion.

Despite Washington's failure to de-escalate, Abu al-Sabaa said the UN Secretary-General called on the international community to pressure Israel through channels other than the United States.

On the Hezbollah side, Abu Al-Sabaa predicted that after targeting the southern suburb, Hezbollah would wage an unrestricted war, which would herald a long phase of war of attrition.

Regarding Iran, he pointed out that Tehran is focusing on its current interest, which is to remove sanctions and return to the political track regarding its nuclear program.

Abu Al-Sabaa pointed out that the new Iranian president sent calming messages when he stated that possessing nuclear weapons is not part of Iran's military doctrine, stressing the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.

Iran will not enter into a direct confrontation with Israel

Accordingly, Abu Al-Sabaa believes that Iran will not enter into a direct confrontation with Israel, and will remain an indirect supporter of the resistance fronts, realizing that its direct intervention will drag it into a confrontation with the United States and NATO.

Regarding military escalation on the ground, Abu Al-Sabaa indicated that Israel may be forced to resort to ground intervention, despite the high cost that this option may impose, especially in light of the declared goal of pushing Hezbollah back beyond the Litani River.

However, according to Abu Al-Sabaa, Israel is not prepared to pay this price now, and therefore prefers to rely on its air superiority to establish or restore the image of deterrence, an image that has been severely damaged since the events of October 7.

Preventing Hezbollah from reorganizing its ranks

In turn, writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi said that Israel's continued bombing and targeting of the southern suburbs of Beirut, in particular, and other areas of Lebanon, aims to prevent Hezbollah from reorganizing its ranks.

Yaghi pointed out that Hezbollah, despite these attacks on the suburb and the assassination of its Secretary-General, has several sectors, each of which operates independently, which explains the continued firing of rockets towards Israel.

Yaghi explained that Israel, according to its vision, seeks to achieve three main steps: the first is to undermine Hezbollah from within by targeting its leaders, and the second focuses on destroying the weapons and missile stores that Israel believes exist, claiming that it has destroyed 50% of Hezbollah’s capabilities. However, Yaghi doubts the veracity of this claim, pointing out that if the number is accurate, the party still possesses about 75,000 missiles, according to what the occupation estimates.

The third step, according to Yaghi, is to strike Hezbollah’s popular base, and fourth, to target specific locations in the southern suburb based on intelligence information.

Divide the suburb into squares and collect accurate data.

Yaghi pointed out that Israel targeted the southern suburb of Beirut after dividing it into small squares not exceeding 400 square meters, as part of a plan that took 15 years, during which accurate data was collected on everyone who lives in or visits these areas. In this operation, Israel relied on modern technology (tracking cameras, voice identification features, drones, and internet hacking), in addition to the human element (local and foreign spies). The social needs of the residents and their digital fingerprints were determined, which allows Israel the ability to monitor and accurately identify people.

According to Yaghi, every residential block in the southern suburb is under the surveillance of a special group of Mossad, Shin Bet and the Israeli army (Unit 8200) tasked with monitoring and carrying out assassinations. In addition, Israel has penetrated Lebanese ports and airports and daily records of passenger movement, as well as landline and cellular communications networks, making all of Lebanon exposed to it.

Regarding Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Yaghi says: Israel aimed to create a “shock” within Hezbollah after a series of assassinations targeting its leaders and the bombing of its communications devices, with the aim of weakening the party’s morale and convincing its popular base that it had been infiltrated. However, Hezbollah, contrary to what Israel wanted, maintained its cohesion and continued its qualitative strikes and support for the Gaza front.

As for future scenarios, Yaghi believes that things may head towards a comprehensive escalation following the assassination of Nasrallah, and the escalation may reach a regional war targeting Iran, which is what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks.

Although Hezbollah was trying to avoid sliding into a comprehensive war, Israel had made a prior decision to go to war to ensure its security in the north, indicating that Hezbollah was wrong about its precautions to prevent a regional war because Israel wanted it.

Iran's entry into the battle alongside Hezbollah is unlikely

Yaghi considered that Iran entering the battle alongside Hezbollah is currently unlikely, but Israel may try to provoke Iran and lure it into war even if it strikes deep inside Lebanese territory, and it sees this as an opportunity to strike its nuclear and oil facilities and drag the United States into this battle.

Yaghi pointed out that Israel considers this battle important for it in order to change all the geopolitical features in the region, and it changed the name of the battle from "Arrows of the North" to "Regime Change", which means that it wants to put an end to the Iranian role in the region by striking all the resistance movements, specifically the resistance movements in Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, as Israel is trying to impose new conditions on the region.

Regarding the possible Israeli ground attack on Lebanon, Yaghi said: Israel currently tends to exaggerate more than actually implement it, and Hezbollah is still strongly present in the areas of southern Lebanon and its capabilities are present, as it has launched short-range artillery shells from areas close to the border, and it has not only fired missiles.

Yaghi cited Israel's experience in Gaza, where it bombed the Strip for three weeks before gradually beginning a ground invasion, and he expected that it would try to repeat this in Lebanon, but he doubts Israel's ability to succeed in this scenario in the first stage due to the difference in field conditions in Lebanon from Gaza.

Hizbullah lured into a response that would lead to a comprehensive war

Dr. Saad Nimr, Professor of Political Science at Birzeit University, believes that the continued Israeli strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut come within the framework of a systematic escalation by Israel, with the aim of pushing Hezbollah to respond more strongly, leading to a comprehensive confrontation and perhaps a regional war.

Nimr said that Israel seeks, through this increasing escalation, to drag the United States into direct involvement in the conflict, which would allow Israel to achieve its primary goal in the region, which is to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program or at least destroy it to a large extent.

Nimr explained that Israel is well aware that it cannot fight a regional war alone, and seeks to ensure direct American participation in the event that such a war breaks out, especially if the threat reaches a level that poses an existential threat to Israel. Therefore, the current Israeli escalation can be interpreted as an attempt to prepare the ground for greater American participation, and not to leave Israel alone in a potential regional confrontation.

accurate intelligence

Regarding the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Nimr believes that Israel likely had accurate intelligence information that enabled it to carry out this operation quickly at the beginning of the recent escalation.

Nimr pointed out that Israel had previously used this approach with prominent Palestinian figures, such as Ismail Haniyeh and other leaders, as it had resorted to organized assassinations for decades as part of its policy to weaken the resistance movements, but it had not succeeded in weakening the organizations or ideologies associated with them.

Nimr stressed that the assassination of Nasrallah, for Israel, is not just targeting a leading figure, but rather an attempt to show that its deterrent power still exists and that it is capable of controlling the region. Through this operation, Israel seeks to send a clear message that it still has control over the region and that it is capable of carrying out effective assassinations and targeting major leaders when it deems it necessary, even though it has not yet achieved any tangible victory on the ground, whether in Gaza or Lebanon.

As for the expected scenario after Nasrallah’s assassination, Nimr believes that Hezbollah will significantly escalate its attacks, and may begin targeting Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv and vital sites inside Israel.

Nasrallah's assassination is a turning point in the war

Nimr stressed that the assassination of Nasrallah could be a turning point in the war, as there are no longer any red lines in the confrontation, which portends an unprecedented escalation.

He pointed out that Israel is not willing to enter into a ground war with Hezbollah, because it knows very well that this would be very costly for it, and despite the assassination of Nasrallah, Hezbollah remains a cohesive military force capable of launching harsh attacks, which makes Israel avoid the ground option.

Instead, according to Nimr, Israel is seeking a political solution or an agreement that may include a truce in Gaza as well, to achieve gains without entering into ground confrontations that could weaken its position.

In the Israeli domestic context, Nimr said: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has benefited greatly from this escalation on the political level, as opinion polls have confirmed that his popularity has increased after his decision to escalate against Lebanon, and this puts him in a stronger position before Israeli society, especially the Israeli opposition, as he can end the war without major losses. On the contrary, it may enhance his political chances and ensure his continued presence in power.

As for Iran, Nimr believes that it is not interested in entering into a regional war at this stage, because it realizes that such a conflict would make it vulnerable to devastating strikes by Israel and the United States.

Therefore, Nimr believes that Iran will maintain its support for Hezbollah through military supplies without getting involved in a direct confrontation, for reasons related to the Iranian internal situation and regional balances in the region.

Ending Hezbollah's ability to fire rockets at Israel

In turn, the expert on Israeli affairs, Fayez Abbas, believes that the destruction of the southern suburb of Beirut, for Israel, means the elimination of Hezbollah’s basic base, including its military and political leadership.

He said: In addition, these strikes aim to end Hezbollah's ability to bombard Israel with long-range, accurate missiles, as Israeli intelligence believes that the key to these missiles and their launch sites are located in the southern suburb, which makes strikes on them a crucial part of Israel's strategy to paralyze the party's military capabilities.

Abbas stressed that the recent strikes launched by Israel against Hezbollah represent a military and moral achievement that Israel was unable to achieve in previous wars, such as the fighting in Gaza that lasted for about a year without similar results.

He pointed out that the Israeli achievement against Hezbollah was achieved in a relatively short time, which is considered an important shift in the military equation between the two parties.

I know that he believes that the message that Israel wanted to convey through the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah is clear: no one who opposes Israel has immunity, and Israel can reach any place in the Middle East.

According to Abbas, Hassan Nasrallah was a very dangerous figure for Israel, and he had been fighting Israel for many years. Israel failed to reach him and succeeded this time in dropping 80 tons of explosives on his location. But the question now is not how Nasrallah was killed, but how did Israel succeed in a short period of time in annihilating the military and political leadership of Hezbollah?