Antoine Shalhat: Israeli protests are witnessing a noticeable escalation and also reflect the position of the security establishment calling for an end to the war

Hani Abu Al-Sabaa: Whenever Netanyahu faces an internal crisis, he resorts to directing major strikes or assassinating prominent figures.

Fayez Abbas: Chances of concluding a deal to return the detainees remain slim as long as Netanyahu is in power

Muhammad Abu Allan Daraghmeh: The impact of the Histadrut’s intervention is limited because it came late and the strike lasted only 24 hours

The killing of six Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip has sparked widespread Israeli resentment, prompting the Histadrut, the Israeli trade union federation, to join the protests and demonstrations filling the streets of Israel by calling for a one-day general strike yesterday, Monday, as part of pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu's government to complete the exchange deal.

Israeli analysts, in separate interviews with “Y,” said that Netanyahu is facing severe criticism from the media and public opinion, as he is being held responsible for the killing of Israeli detainees, after he failed the prisoner exchange deal negotiations.

Despite the strength of these movements and protests, specialist analysts doubt the extent of their influence on Netanyahu, who seems determined to continue his current policies and insist on not concluding the deal.

According to these analysts, the Histadrut strike reflects growing popular discontent over the failure to conclude a deal to return the Israeli detainees, but its impact on Netanyahu’s policy remains questionable, especially in light of the criticism facing the Histadrut due to its delay in joining the protests, which weakened its role and effectiveness in influencing the Israeli government, in conjunction with Netanyahu and his government coalition’s accusations that the Histadrut’s strike is political and not union-related, and that it serves the head of the Hamas political bureau, Yahya Sinwar.

Israelis hold Netanyahu responsible for killing of six detainees

The writer, political analyst and specialist in Israeli affairs, Antoine Shalhat, said: The protests in Israel are witnessing a noticeable escalation after the killing of the six Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip.

Shalhat explained that the prevailing narrative in the Israeli media and public opinion holds Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responsible for this failure, as they consider his sabotage of the prisoner exchange negotiations to be the main reason for not reaching an agreement, which led to the killing of the Israeli detainees, and some go so far as to consider Netanyahu to have deliberately sacrificed them.

He stressed that "the Histadrut strike clearly reflects this escalation in protests, and that its main goal is to pressure the Israeli government to move forward with a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire."

Histadrut joins the protest

Shalhat pointed out that the Histadrut had been subjected to pressure in the past to declare such a strike, but responding to this pressure at the present time reflects a shift that reveals the developments of the war on Gaza, as the protesters seek to pressure the government, which, from their point of view, has not done what is necessary to reach an exchange agreement and end the war.

He pointed out that "the broad participation in the demonstrations that we are witnessing now is the largest since the beginning of the war on October 7, which indicates growing popular discontent with the position of the Israeli government and its president towards the continuation of the war."

According to Shalhat, these demonstrations and protests also reflect the position of the Israeli security establishment, which in turn began calling for a halt to the war to avoid it turning into a multi-front and regional war.

Shalhat believes that the possibility of stopping the war has become greater thanks to these developments, but this possibility depends largely on the political and field developments that the coming period will witness, as well as developments at the level of the Israeli interior.

The strike comes at a very sensitive stage.

Writer and political analyst Hani Abu Al-Sabaa believes that the Histadrut strike is a very big step in the context of the ongoing protests against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, noting that this strike comes at a very sensitive stage, and reflects the deepening internal division in Israel, and the increasing pressure on the government.

Abu Al-Sabaa pointed out that finding the bodies of six Israelis held in Gaza, including three who were included in the first batch of the proposed exchange deal, has further complicated matters, explaining that one of the dead was an American citizen, and the American president had personally intervened in this matter.

Abu Al-Sabaa pointed out that the recent strike and protests come in conjunction with a large turnout in the demonstrations, which extended to 80 locations in Israel, recording the largest crowd in more than ten months.

According to Abu Al-Sabaa, these demonstrations come amid Israeli security assessments that the internal situation is extremely sensitive, and that the continuation of the war could lead to major events.

Strike despite government threats of deduction

He added: The Israeli demonstrators and strikers insisted on carrying out the strike, despite the government's threats to deduct wages for every day of absence, which caused a major paralysis in the Israeli economy, especially in sectors such as restaurants, airports and public services.

Abu Al-Sabaa explained that the wide participation in the demonstrations witnessed the participation of prominent figures who appeared for the first time in these protests, including former prime ministers such as: Ehud Barak, Ehud Olmert, and Yair Lapid.

He pointed out that the scope of the demonstrations expanded geographically, moving from the south to the center and north, despite security warnings against large gatherings.

He said: "The opposition believes that Netanyahu's policies are leading Israel towards destruction, and are putting the project of a democratic and secular state in danger, which has led to a significant deepening of the division within Israeli society."

Abu Al-Sabaa stressed that Netanyahu now has three main options: the first is to agree to the exchange deal, which would be considered a loss and a defeat for him personally, which would make him tend to procrastinate. The second option is to call for early elections, which is a strong possibility. The third option is to maintain the current situation and continue the war, as a long-term war of attrition.

Netanyahu and the policy of diverting public attention

Abu Al-Sabaa explained that Netanyahu relies on a recurring strategy when facing internal crises, as his political experience shows that whenever he faces a major internal dilemma, he resorts to carrying out a qualitative military operation, such as assassinating a prominent figure, to divert public opinion and distract attention from the escalating protests against him.

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that the goal of these operations is to convince the Israelis that there is an external threat that requires unity behind the leadership, which helps Netanyahu reduce internal pressures and strengthen his political position.

Abu Al-Sabaa explained that this strategy is based on exploiting the security concerns of the Israeli public, a tactic that Netanyahu has used on several previous occasions when his popularity was threatened or he was facing major political crises.

He pointed out that these protests put great pressure on Netanyahu, putting him in a difficult position that might force him to seriously consider stopping the war.

However, Abu Al-Sabaa did not rule out the possibility that Netanyahu might resort to evasion or use other methods to maintain the continuation of the war.

Abu Al-Sabaa pointed out that the increasing protests in Israel may force the government to reach a certain formula to conclude an agreement or deal, but achieving this goal may not be possible in the near future.

Netanyahu hurls accusations at all who oppose him

In turn, the expert on Israeli affairs, Fayez Abbas, said that the Histadrut's joining of the protests came primarily to demand a deal to restore the detainees, but he ruled out that this would affect the positions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Abbas pointed out that Netanyahu is still insisting on his position on this issue, to the point that he criticized the Histadrut, and considered that its positions provide support to the leader of the Hamas movement, Yahya Sinwar, noting that Netanyahu accuses everyone who opposes him in the issue of the deal.

He pointed out that the Israeli Labor Court issued a decision to stop the strike that the Histadrut began at 2:30 pm yesterday, Monday, and the court considered the strike to be political in nature and not union-related, which is considered an achievement for Netanyahu's government.

Regarding the demonstrations, Abbas indicated that they “are not related to politics in general, but rather aim to pressure Netanyahu to conclude a deal to restore the detainees,” but he stressed that “Netanyahu is not affected by anything as long as his government coalition remains in place.”

Israeli concerns for the lives of the remaining detainees

Abbas expressed his belief that the chances of concluding a deal to return the detainees remain slim as long as Netanyahu is in power, and he will do everything in his power to thwart any possible deal.

Abbas pointed out that there is an Israeli media consensus that Netanyahu is responsible for the killing of the six detainees, because of his refusal to enter into negotiations to conclude the deal, and that the military pressure did not achieve its results, and that there is fear that this approach will lead to the killing of all the detainees, as their families believe.

Regarding the war on Gaza, Abbas explained that there is a consensus within Israel to continue the war, with a majority supporting the return of the detainees, but the main disagreement is centered around Netanyahu remaining in power, as opinion polls indicated that 50% of Israelis want Netanyahu to leave and hold early elections, yet Netanyahu insists on remaining in office until 2026.

The greatest influence is for the government coalition, not the Histadrut.

Blogger and writer specializing in Israeli affairs, Muhammad Abu Allan Daraghmeh, believes that the Histadrut strike may have a limited impact on the policy of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, especially with regard to the issue of Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip.

Draghmeh pointed to several reasons that weaken the impact of the strike, the first of which is the delay in the Histadrut’s intervention in the protests of the families of Israeli prisoners in Gaza, which reflects a weakness in its role and reduces its impact.

The second reason, according to Draghmeh, is that the greatest influence is on the government coalition itself, not the Histadrut, and the government has begun to launch a counterattack on the strike by describing it as politically motivated and aimed at serving Hamas and its political bureau chief Yahya Sinwar, which could weaken the Histadrut’s position as a labor union.

He added: "The Histadrut's announcement of a strike for less than 24 hours is considered a weak point, and this is what the families of the Israeli detainees pointed out and criticized," noting that the Histadrut announced its strike only to integrate into the demonstrations after the bodies of the Israelis were found, and it is not a policy.

The escalation of demonstrations is temporary.

Regarding the protests, Draghmeh confirmed that the escalation in the demonstrations began after the bodies of the six Israelis were found in the Gaza Strip, where there was a belief that they could be saved, which sparked angry reactions and expanded the scope of the demonstrations.

However, Draghmeh said that this escalation would be temporary, and that the demonstrations would soon return to their normal size within a few days.

Draghmeh noted that the main demands of the protesters are focused on the return of the Israeli detainees, and are not related to political matters, while political calls for Netanyahu's resignation have begun to decline significantly.

Draghmeh stressed that the current demonstrations do not have a major political character, as they focus mainly on the issue of detainees, and do not demand an end to the war on the Gaza Strip.

Draghmeh pointed out that there are voices calling for intensifying military operations against Hamas and destroying the Strip, expecting that the protests will stop completely if a truce is reached in the Gaza Strip.