ARAB AND WORLD
Wed 24 Jan 2024 10:51 am - Jerusalem Time
With increasing military losses...the Gaza war puts Netanyahu before a complex “dilemma.”
As Israeli military losses in Gaza increase, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself in a dilemma, The Guardian reported. His popularity has declined, and opinion polls indicate that the right-wing Likud Party led by Netanyahu will lose half of its seats in immediate elections to a renewed centrist opposition.
The newspaper points out that voters have not forgotten the blatant failures that allowed Hamas to attack southern Israel from Gaza on October 7, killing 1,200 people, including 311 soldiers, according to Israeli reports, and kidnapping about 240. But the lack of tangible results from the Israeli attack On Gaza, which was supposed to lead to “complete victory” over Hamas, has now also become important.
The declared Israeli military losses rose to 221 soldiers killed and thousands wounded, and no strategic breakthrough occurred. “Although Hamas has lost seriously, its senior leadership remains intact, and rockets were fired at Israel from Gaza again last week,” according to the newspaper.
The newspaper notes that "political differences", which froze in Israel following the October 7 attacks, have now begun to return to the forefront again, and the Israeli media have begun to talk about "renewed opposition" to Netanyahu. Seasoned observers caution against exaggerating any appeasement, noting the lack of any mass mobilization and how most Israelis remain immersed in their personal grief, or fears about their relatives in uniform.
But there are signs of change. Relatives of hostages still in Gaza have become more vocal. In recent days, they closed a highway and disrupted a committee hearing in Parliament.
Last week, Gadi Eisenkot, the former army chief of staff and a member of the small war cabinet that Netanyahu formed after the October attack, accused the prime minister of misleading the public into believing a quick victory in Gaza was possible. The criticism has resonated, not least because Eisenkot's son, a soldier, was killed there in December.
The newspaper quotes Professor Gideon Rahat, from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, as saying: “In the long term, the human toll becomes great because people begin to wonder what return they are getting for this high price.” "Politicians have declared that victories will come too quickly and this is problematic."
Analysts point out that Netanyahu could get a boost in the polls - albeit in the short term - if he agrees to a deal with Hamas to release the hostages. But even agreeing to a short halt to the offensive in Gaza could cause Netanyahu to lose the support of far-right politicians who are important to his coalition government. This will not end his rule, but it will seriously undermine it.
There are multiple scenarios for what will happen over the coming months. Many of which saw Netanyahu leave office.
Some analysts believe that early elections are possible. Others say that no politician would risk an election in wartime, but admit that the parliamentary calculations for a successful vote of no confidence do not currently correspond to reality. Netanyahu's opposition is also hopelessly divided.
Netanyahu has been in power longer than Israel's founding father, David Ben-Gurion, and faces possible imprisonment on corruption charges. He has been in difficult situations before, and survived, and even if elections were called tomorrow, it could take six months before a new government is formed.
There are estimates that the overthrow of Netanyahu is not inevitable and certainly not immediate. “He (Netanyahu) is in a different class than anyone else in the current political landscape and he thrives under pressure,” one political insider told the newspaper, but Israeli public opinion is divided. Protesters in recent days, including veterans discharged from combat in Gaza, with a tougher commitment to the attack that killed 25,000 Palestinians in the Strip, most of them women and children. The families of the hostages also have different views.
“Netanyahu’s decision is not to make a decision and to stall in the hope that something will happen,” Merav Zonszin, an Israeli analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the newspaper. He added: "There is still a consensus that war is justified, but people increasingly want someone else to take over the leadership and believe that Netanyahu should go, not at an unclear later date but now."
Supporters and relatives of hostages detained in Gaza stormed a meeting in the Israeli parliament, on Monday, to demand that lawmakers take greater measures to secure the release of their relatives from Gaza.
The protest reflects the “growing frustration” of the hostage families, who have become “increasingly concerned about the fate of their family members as the war, which has already entered its fourth month, continues,” according to the New York Times.
“You will not sit here while they die there,” he wrote on banners raised by some demonstrators who boycotted the Finance Committee meeting in the Knesset.
Last week, current and former Israeli security officials indicated that a deal with Hamas would be the only way to return the hostages to Israel safely.
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With increasing military losses...the Gaza war puts Netanyahu before a complex “dilemma.”