Dissolving the "Hamas" government... an attempt to find safe exits from the entrenched crisis

Dr. Omar Rahal: "Hamas" seeks to separate its responsibility for managing the affairs of the population from its role as a major political actor and partner without exiting the Palestinian scene.Akram Attallah: The movement has begun to move towards finding exits from the crisis in an attempt to show that it has exhausted what it can, thereby transferring part of the responsibility to other parties.Mohammed Joudeh: The future of Gaza will not be decided by an administrative decision, but by what the facts impose and by the extent of the Palestinians' success, with the support of mediators, in reaching a stable governance formula.Dr. Reham Odeh: Hamas's decision represents a tactical step and a political maneuver aimed at blocking a potential scenario related to the start of a technocrat committee's work in the "Yellow Zone."Mohammed Hawash: Hamas's decision to dissolve the governmental committee comes within the framework of dialogue between Palestinian factions and mediators regarding the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the Trump initiative.Suleiman Bisharat: The movement wanted to withdraw Israeli justifications and turn the step into a pressure card in the hands of mediators and the United States to prevent a return to escalation.Ramallah – Exclusive to "Al-Quds" – The announcement by the Hamas movement to dissolve its government or its administrative committee in the Gaza Strip constitutes a political development that opens the door to broad questions about the future of the Strip's administration after the war, and questions about the motives of the step and whether it paves the way for a real transition in civil affairs management or falls within the rearrangement of roles in light of escalating political, military, and humanitarian pressures.Writers and political analysts, in separate interviews with "Al-Quds," believe that the decision reflects an attempt to alleviate the burdens associated with managing the Gaza Strip and to withdraw the pretexts used by Israel to obstruct reconstruction, while maintaining Hamas's presence in the political scene. Meanwhile, the issues of weapons, employees, and security and political authority remain the most prominent obstacles to any transitional arrangements or future understandings.The proposed scenarios range from the success of a technocrat committee or a national committee in taking over the administration with Palestinian, regional, and international support, to the failure of the transition due to internal disagreements and Israeli positions, which would prolong the humanitarian crisis and delay reconstruction. The future of Gaza remains dependent on the results of negotiations, the consolidation of the ceasefire, and the extent of reaching a governance formula that enjoys local and international acceptance.A Significant Political ShiftPolitical writer and analyst Dr. Omar Rahal explains that the announcement by the Hamas movement to dissolve its government or its administrative committee in the Gaza Strip cannot be dealt with as merely an administrative or organizational measure, but rather represents a political shift with broad Palestinian and regional implications, reflecting the movement's understanding of the nature of the phase the Strip is undergoing after the war and the destruction and humanitarian catastrophe it left behind.Rahal points out that Hamas's continued presence at the forefront of governance has become, from its point of view, a political and humanitarian burden, and also provides Israel with additional pretexts to say that the Gaza Strip is still managed by the movement, which it uses to justify obstructing reconstruction and rejecting any new political arrangements.He notes that the movement seeks to separate its responsibility for managing the affairs of the population from its role as a major political actor, allowing it to transition from the position of the ruling authority to the position of a political partner, without that meaning its exit from the Palestinian scene.Rahal believes that this step relieves the movement of direct responsibility for humanitarian and relief files, and opens the way for a technocrat committee or other parties to assume the responsibilities of daily administration, noting that a number of international and regional parties are unwilling to deal with Gaza as long as Hamas remains at the forefront of governance, which may increase popular pressure on it if it continues to manage the Strip.Rahal believes that Israel will not consider this step sufficient, but will continue to promote its narrative that what happened is merely a formal transition, and that the movement will remain the actual influential force through its military wing and through employees working in government institutions.Weapons and Employees are the Main ObstaclesRahal explains that the issues of weapons and employees will remain the main obstacles to any future arrangements, expecting that Israel, the United States, and some Western countries will continue to condition the resolution of these two issues before allowing any progress in reconstruction or the implementation of political understandings.He points out that the issue of weapons will be the most complex, and may take years of negotiations, noting the possibility of proposing different formulas, including handing over part of the weapons or placing them under the supervision of a third party, but this will not end Israeli demands, which will continue to raise the bar of their conditions.Regarding employees, Rahal explains that Israel may demand auditing and security screening for all employees in public institutions to ensure that they are not affiliated with Hamas, considering that this mechanism has been in place in international funding programs for years, and that it may turn into a tool to obstruct the work of any committee that takes over the administration of the Strip.Possibility of Gaza Entering an Unstable Transitional PhaseRegarding the expected scenarios, Rahal expects Gaza to enter an unstable transitional phase interspersed with political and perhaps security disputes over who will manage the Strip and the files of relief, reconstruction, civil services, and crossings.Rahal explains that the success of any technocrat committee will remain dependent on the availability of Palestinian, Arab, and international support, but political and security files will remain unresolved for a long time.Rahal suggests that Israel will continue its military operations, assassinations, and tightening of restrictions on the Strip, in addition to obstructing reconstruction, stressing that the absence of binding international mechanisms to compel Israel to implement any agreement, and the continued American bias towards Israel, will make Palestinians, especially the residents of the Gaza Strip, pay the price for the continuation of the crisis, with the possibility of limited progress only in humanitarian and relief aspects, while fundamental issues remain unresolved.A Highly Complex PhasePolitical writer and analyst Akram Attallah believes that the Hamas movement's announcement of the dissolution of its government in the Gaza Strip reflects a growing realization within the movement that the current phase is highly complex, and that the continuation of the status quo is no longer an easy option, in light of continuous political and military pressures. Attallah explains that this step indicates that the movement has begun to move towards finding exits from the crisis, in an attempt to show that it has exhausted what it can offer at the political level, and that it has done its part, thereby transferring part of the responsibility to other parties.Attallah stresses that the step cannot be understood as merely an initiative to shift responsibility to others, but also reflects an attempt by Hamas to find a way out of the crisis it faces, in light of a complex reality that the movement realizes is difficult to sustain.Regarding the next phase, Attallah confirms that the dissolution of the government or the administrative committee will not constitute a major turning point in the course of events in the Gaza Strip, noting that he does not expect different scenarios to emerge directly from this step, because the core of the issue is not related to the civil committee or its existence.The Weapon File is the Knot of KnotsAttallah stresses that the core of the crisis is linked to the rule of the Hamas movement itself, and to the power capabilities it possesses, especially weapons, pointing out that this file represents the "knot of knots" in any future arrangements concerning the Gaza Strip.Attallah indicates that the administrative committee is merely an administrative apparatus that operates under the power of Hamas and is protected by it, and therefore, changing this administrative framework does not alter the basic existing equation.Attallah notes that as long as Hamas's basic elements of power, primarily weapons, remain unchanged, the scene will remain the same, and the dissolution of the government will not lead to fundamental transformations or a different political reality, because the issue goes beyond the administrative structure to the nature of the authority and the actual power existing in the Gaza Strip.The Current Political Environment is Radically DifferentPolitical writer and analyst Mohammed Joudeh believes that the Hamas movement's announcement of the resignation of its government in the Gaza Strip and the handover of the Strip's administration to the National Committee for Gaza Administration could, if implemented effectively and not formally, constitute one of the most prominent political transformations since the movement's control of the Strip in 2007.Joudeh stresses that the importance of the step lies not in changing the entity that manages ministries and civil institutions, but in whether it represents the beginning of a real political transition that reshapes the governance system, and not merely an administrative rearrangement that gives parties more time to manage the crisis.Joudeh explains that the current political environment differs radically from previous stages, as the recent war's effects were not limited to changing the reality on the ground, but also reshaped regional and international positions towards the future of the Gaza Strip, so that the discussion shifted from merely a ceasefire to searching for the identity of the entity that will manage the Strip after the war, and how to establish an executive authority that enjoys Palestinian, regional, and international acceptance, allowing for the launch of reconstruction and the restoration of a minimum level of stability.Under Practical TestJoudeh points out that any announcement of handing over the administration of Gaza to the National Committee will be subject to a practical test related to Hamas's readiness to transition from managing authority to participating in new political arrangements.Joudeh explains that mediators will measure the success of the step by the extent of transferring actual powers and enabling the new administration to carry out its tasks away from dual decision-making or conflicting authorities.Joudeh indicates that Hamas's options have become narrower, in light of an increasing convergence among regional and international parties on the necessity of finding a new governance formula in Gaza as an entry point for reconstruction and achieving stability, even if there is no complete agreement on the details of the next phase, noting that a return to the previous governance model has become more difficult.Four Possible ScenariosJoudeh outlines four possible scenarios; the first is the success of a gradual and organized transition of Gaza's civil administration in parallel with political and security understandings, which opens the door for the flow of aid, reconstruction, and improved services.Joudeh indicates that the second scenario is a limited administrative transition where security and sovereign files remain a point of contention, achieving partial humanitarian improvement without ending the state of uncertainty.The third, according to Joudeh, is the failure of the transition process due to Palestinian disagreements or the failure of understandings with mediators, which prolongs the humanitarian and economic crisis and delays reconstruction.According to Joudeh, the fourth scenario is the continuation of a transitional administration or local committees with major files, primarily security and reconstruction, remaining pending until a more comprehensive political agreement is reached.Hamas and the Shift Towards the Role of "Political and Resistance Actor"Joudeh believes that Hamas may move from the role of "administrative ruler" to the role of "political and resistance actor," while keen to maintain its presence in any future Palestinian arrangements and not accept its exclusion from the political system. Joudeh stresses that the future of Gaza will not be decided by an administrative decision, but by what the facts on the ground impose, and by the extent of the Palestinians' success, with the support of mediators, in reaching a stable governance formula.Joudeh emphasizes that the dissolution of the Hamas government does not necessarily mean the movement's exit from the political scene, and that the future of the Strip will remain linked to the consolidation of the ceasefire, the results of negotiations, internal Palestinian consensus, and the positions of regional and international parties.A Tactical Step and Political ManeuverPolitical writer and analyst Dr. Reham Odeh believes that the Hamas movement's decision to dissolve its government in the Gaza Strip does not reflect an actual relinquishment of power, but rather represents a tactical step and a political maneuver aimed at blocking a potential scenario related to the start of the work of the National Committee for Gaza "Technocrat Committee" in what is known as the "Yellow Zone" under the control of the Israeli army, and under the supervision of international forces.Odeh explains that this scenario is based on encouraging residents of areas under Hamas control to gradually move to the "Yellow Zone," which over time would lead to separating the population from the movement and isolating it popularly and politically. She believes that Hamas seeks to prevent this by formally announcing the dissolution of its government, while maintaining a governmental committee to manage affairs.Hamas's Attempt to Convince Mediators of its SeriousnessOdeh believes that the movement is simultaneously trying to convince mediators that it is serious about relinquishing governance, while continuing to cling to managing the security file in the Strip under the pretext of preventing a security vacuum, thereby putting the ball in the "Peace Council's" court to take the next steps.The Peace Council Appears UnconvincedIn her reading of the potential scenarios, Odeh indicates that the first scenario is based on the position of the "Peace Council," which appears unconvinced of Hamas's seriousness in handing over power, due to its continued adherence to weapons and managing the security file.Odeh believes that this may lead to continued Israeli targeting of the movement's elements and leaders, in parallel with the start of international forces' work within the "Yellow Zone" in cooperation with the Gaza committee, in addition to initiating the training of a new Palestinian police force, and introducing temporary housing in the form of caravans to establish humanitarian areas that encourage residents to move to them, thereby gradually contributing to isolating Hamas from the population and stripping it of its influence, with the possibility of Israel expanding the scope of the "Yellow Line" to include up to about 90% of the Gaza Strip's area, with the aim of imposing a fait accompli and pushing the movement to surrender its weapons voluntarily or by force.Attempt to Convince Hamas to Give Up its WeaponsAs for the second scenario, according to Odeh, it involves the continuation of negotiations with Hamas to convince it to give up its weapons, while its security control over the Strip remains and Israel continues to expand the "Yellow Line" to militarily isolate it.Odeh believes that this scenario also assumes that large numbers of residents will not move to the "Yellow Zone," if Hamas works to prevent this through incitement and treason campaigns against anyone who considers moving there, which may cause many residents to hesitate to take such a step, and affect the chances of success of this path.Within the Framework of Dialogue Between Factions and MediatorsPolitical writer and analyst Mohammed Hawash explains that the Hamas movement's decision to dissolve the emergency committee or the governmental committee that manages government institutions in the Gaza Strip comes within the framework of dialogue between Palestinian factions and mediators regarding the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and US President Donald Trump's initiative, noting that the step came under increasing pressure on the movement to present goodwill initiatives.Israel and the Reduction of the Trump Initiative to the Disarmament FileHawash indicates that Israel seeks to reduce the Trump initiative to the file of disarming the Gaza Strip and the Hamas movement in particular, and sets conditions related to dismantling weapons, at a time when mediators are pressuring the movement to take reciprocal steps, in exchange for unfulfilled Israeli commitments, especially regarding the entry of humanitarian and medical aid and the opening of crossings in a way that allows for meeting the basic needs of the Strip's residents.The Agreement is Contingent on Israel's Commitment to Withdraw from the StripHawash notes that the future of the agreement also remains linked to the extent of Israel's commitment to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, pointing out that it has not yet spoken of clear withdrawals, while continuing to leak plans and scenarios related to re-occupying the Strip and imposing a new reality, in addition to plans for forced displacement, which pushes mediators to demand that Hamas withdraw Israeli pretexts through clearer positions.On the Symbolism of Hamas's StepHawash believes that Hamas's dissolution of its committee is still symbolic, and that a real transformation requires Hamas to link the handover of Gaza's administration to its transfer to an official Palestinian entity, so that the National Committee for the administration of the Strip is a transitional phase towards the return of the Palestinian Authority in its comprehensive sense, and not within the framework of a conflict between Hamas and Fatah, but within the concept of Palestinian national legitimacy and the unity of Palestinian territories.A Proactive Step in the Employee FileHawash stresses that there is another aspect related to the file of Gaza employees, considering that the movement's demand to consider all its employees as government employees and to hold any new authority or international bodies responsible for their salaries and rights may reflect an unclear intention to fully exit from governance, as this could be a proactive step by Hamas to impose its vision in a soft manner.Hawash indicates that the National Committee for the administration of Gaza needs an environment that enables it to exercise its powers, including the existence of one law, one weapon, and one political authority, and that Hamas transforms into a political faction that has the right to participate and express opinions within the Palestinian political system, without interfering in the daily management of the Strip.The Possibility of Paving the Way for a New PhaseRegarding the upcoming scenarios, Hawash explains that Hamas's step may be a prelude to a new phase, but it alone will not be enough to move the situation unless accompanied by clear political measures, calling for empowering the committee to take over the administration of the Strip in cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, Arab countries, mediators, and the parties participating in the Trump initiative, warning against Israel's continued use of the weapons file as a pretext to obstruct any political progress.The Culmination of a Long Process of ReviewsPolitical writer and analyst Suleiman Bisharat explains that the Hamas movement's decision to dissolve the administrative committee or the governmental emergency committee that manages the Gaza Strip did not come only at an immediate timing, but was the culmination of a long process of reviews and convictions within the movement, whose features began before the war and strengthened afterwards, in light of its realization that managing the Strip has become a major political, economic, and humanitarian burden on it.Bisharat explains that this step also came in the context of a series of meetings held in Cairo between Palestinian factions and the Hamas movement, along with Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish parties, considering that these contacts contributed to reaching a stage of maturity in understanding the future of the Gaza Strip and the nature of possible arrangements for the next phase.Blocking Netanyahu's Path Before the ElectionsBisharat indicates that the choice of this specific timing is linked to Hamas's belief that Israel, and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, view the Gaza file as a political card linked to internal calculations and Israeli elections, and that the probabilities of escalation in the Strip are still higher than others.Bisharat believes that the movement, by dissolving the committee, wanted to withdraw any justifications that Israel might use for escalation, and turn the step into a pressure card in the hands of mediators and the United States to prevent a return to a new Israeli military path.Bisharat clarifies that the current step lies between real need and political need, questioning the extent of Hamas's conviction that dissolving the committee will open the way for the entry of the National Committee for the administration of Gaza or the technocrat committee, noting that the movement still believes that Israel may work to obstruct the existence of any Palestinian body that takes over the administration of the Strip.Israel is the Most Influential Party in the Course of EventsRegarding the upcoming scenarios, Bisharat confirms that Israel remains the most influential party in the course of events, and that it is capable of redirecting any step to serve its goals.Bisharat indicates that one scenario is Israel not allowing the technocrat committee to enter Gaza, which may push Hamas to maintain an administrative body under any name to prevent a vacuum that could be exploited by groups formed by Israel, leading to a state of chaos.The Entry of the Technocrat Committee is an Opportunity for HamasAs for the second scenario, according to Bisharat, it involves the entry of the technocrat committee and its taking over the administration of the Strip, which may give Hamas an opportunity to catch its breath, but it raises questions about the extent of the movement's indirect influence through employees and the local environment in which it still has wide influence and capabilities.Bisharat notes that the third scenario, although less likely, is the failure of transitional arrangements as a result of the Israeli position, which may push Hamas to re-form a committee to administer Gaza and return to the previous governance formula.