The long truce and coexistence with division

The Egyptian capital is witnessing intense movements, starting with the visit of a ministerial delegation headed by Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh, who received a remarkable hospitality, which was reflected in the reception of Mustafa Madbouly, the Egyptian Prime Minister, for Shtayyeh at the airport, in addition to a meeting with Abbas Kamel, the Minister of Intelligence, and ending with the conclusion of a number of agreements in various fields.

It is remarkable that Cairo invited two delegations from the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements, each separately, and requested that the two delegations be formed at the highest level, in addition to inviting, in parallel and simultaneously, a government delegation representing the de facto authority in Gaza, and this is not to discuss reconciliation and achieving unity, as this matter - It seems - it is behind us, but rather to discuss strengthening the authority in the Strip, and reaching a relatively long temporary truce, which opens the way for the establishment of strategic projects in the context of developing relations, especially Egyptian trade, economic and security relations with the Gaza Strip; It amounted to 35%, according to some sources, and 50%, according to other sources, of the total exchange volume of the sector. The importance of this stems from the fact that the funds obtained from the clearing of goods will be fully returned to the Hamas authority, and this allows for greater imports without full Israeli control. The important thing is that the topics under discussion will strongly affect the future of the Palestinian case.

It is also remarkable that this momentum came after the battle of "Revenge of the Free", whose continuation threatened to expand the battle by entering the Al-Qassam Brigades and other battalions. Does this mean that things have become easier to pass the long truce and strategic projects, and the expected result in the event of the success of the above, and I stress if it succeeds To weaken the authority of Ramallah and strengthen the authority of Hamas and its government (especially with the Qatari grant and the entry of Gazan workers to work inside the Green Line) at the expense of the Qassam Brigades; Because improving the conditions of the blockade is not done as a charitable act, but rather it will have a Palestinian return.

The greater indication of what is happening is that the division is deepening, and that authority is required (as an analyst); Because some issues require its existence, such as: fulfilling remaining obligations towards the sector, international aid that passes in its name, and extracting gas from the Marin field; Where it is necessary for the legitimate authority to exist, and for Egypt to exist because it is a state, and such agreements are concluded with countries, and Israel because it is the occupying state.

And until the arrangements are completed, a truce is supposed to be reached, and since it is impossible to reach a permanent truce; Because it loses "Hamas" justification for its existence and legitimacy as a resistance movement, and therefore the search is underway for a long temporary truce for several years.

It is not desirable for all parties to continue the Israeli aggression on the Strip every several years, and in the last period every year, as this results in a variety of human and material losses for the Strip, as well as causing various losses to Israel, especially to the settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip.

What is being collected is achieved

First: As a result of the Israeli policy that adopted a strategy that does not occupy the Gaza Strip; Because: First, the losses you can incur as a result. Secondly, the lack of clarity about the party that can replace the authority of "Hamas". The authority is in Ramallah due to the continued incursions, assassinations and arrests, and Israel's long-time non-compliance with its obligations under the Oslo Accords, and its refusal to resume negotiations and the political process, in addition to the Fatah disputes and divisions, and the competition over the caliph and successors. ; It has become more weak, and it cannot return to Gaza, and it may not want to return, and if it returns, it cannot rule it, and if the occupation government occupies the Strip, it does not want to stay in it. And third, and most important, is the adoption of an Israeli strategy since the division, based on preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state. Therefore, the continuation, deepening and generalization of the division is a central approved Israeli goal, regardless of the ruling government in Israel.

Second: the failure of all attempts and initiatives aimed at ending the division, to the extent that there is a kind of acceptance of the division and an increasing coexistence with it.

Third: Some of the Arab and regional parties are biased towards one of the two sides of the division, others towards the second, and the third is indifferent and preoccupied with their own concerns. Which leads to division. As for the international parties, they are either unjust or oppressed with Israel, such as the United States and Britain, or they want a political process, achieving a “two-state solution” and ending the division, such as Europe, the United Nations and many international parties, but they found in the division an excuse for not doing what they had to do.

There remains a very important point: how can resistance factions whose people and land are under a settler, colonial, racist substitutionary, non-compliant settlement that achieves the minimum level of Palestinian rights, accept a temporary truce for years, that could lead to a long-term truce, under an Israeli government that adopts A plan to quickly resolve the conflict with the Palestinians, and what does that mean in terms of greater settlement and Judaization, assassinations, home demolitions, arrests, more crimes, and internal displacement to complete the conditions for annexing Areas (C) in preparation for a later stage in which numbers of Palestinians will be internally and externally voluntary and forcibly displaced?

It may be said that the Gaza Strip remains a support base for the rising resistance in the West Bank, which is more effective than rockets. This allows a limited margin for movement. Because the occupation will not allow the resistance in Gaza to support and escalate the resistance in the West Bank, and enjoy the advantages of improving the terms of the blockade and the long-term truce, so a truce for years in Gaza will lead sooner or later to a truce in the West Bank.

Someone might say that the battle on all fronts is coming, the battle of decisiveness and victory, and the unity of the arenas will be achieved, and this is just a scenario, and not the most likely scenario. Problems, to the point of resuming negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file.

Also, the Palestinian resistance, in spite of what unites it with Iran and Hezbollah, which is a lot, there is something that separates it. The Iranian priority is the interests of Iran, and it supports and uses the Palestinian cause as much as it serves the Iranian interests, and this is the prevailing in the world. Tehran will not go to war with Israel in support of the Palestinian cause unless this coincides with an Iranian interest, and if this is not the case, then why have we not witnessed an Iranian-Israeli war despite all that the occupation governments have done against the Palestinians, and the continued hostility and escalation of tension between them, and why have we not witnessed Since 2006, a war between Hezbollah and Israel?! Of course, we must not lose sight of the importance of power asymmetry in light of the organic relationship between Tel Aviv and Washington.

Iran realizes that it needs time to be able to win a war, but if war is imposed on it, there is no escape from it. Any will not initiate war until further notice.

It is also supposed to study the feasibility of Palestinian participation in an Iranian-Israeli war, and not to take this matter as a foregone conclusion in all cases, especially if it was not triggered by Palestine. Because there are Israeli plans in place in the event of a regional war to displace Palestinians from inside the Green Line and from the West Bank inside and outside, and the argument in this case will be security.

In addition to the above, reaching all these arrangements requires a democratic process. The de facto forces are participating in the Cairo talks in the two regions, and they are illegitimate in light of the lack of elections and without national consensus, and without participation or even consultation with civil movements, forces, institutions, return committees, Palestinians abroad, and legal personalities.

If, as it is said, the devil's work opens, and if there is Palestinian unity and will based on one vision and strategies, including combining forms of struggle, focusing on boycott and legal prosecution, demanding rights, and popular resistance as a main method; The opportunities that will be available would be much more than the challenges and risks, so why not take advantage of the wave of Arab and regional reconciliations to include the Palestinian arena? This requires will, awareness, initiative, and continuous popular, political, and accumulated public pressure.