As leaked from the news, the goal of the shuttle visit that began yesterday, Tuesday, by the American envoy Amos Hochstein to Beirut and Tel Aviv, is not to reach an agreement for a ceasefire based on the literal, balanced and mutual implementation of UN Resolution 1701, but rather to introduce unannounced amendments to it, in a way that ensures its transformation into a Lebanese version of the Oslo Accords.
He wants to remove Hezbollah forces from the border beyond the Litani, deploy the Lebanese army on the border with a functional role to serve Israeli security, establish a buffer zone 5-8 kilometers deep, impose Israeli and NATO control mechanisms on Beirut airport and port and on the border crossings with Syria to prevent Hezbollah from rearming, and also guarantee the freedom of the Israeli Air Force to operate in Lebanese airspace whenever it deems appropriate.
Before all of that, it is to enable Israel to achieve its most important goal from the recent military operation in Lebanon, which is to separate the Lebanese front from the Gaza front, and to destroy the concept of the unity of the arenas.
I believe that such an agreement will not see the light of day, because first, it would destroy all the sacrifices that the party has made to support Gaza, second, because it would enable Israel to achieve what it failed to achieve through war through politics and diplomacy, and third, because it would hold the party, in front of its audience in particular, and the Lebanese people in general, responsible for all the destruction and devastation that has befallen Lebanon, as it has involved Lebanon in a futile war with no benefit behind it, which will lead to weakening its role in Lebanese political life, and giving a strong push to those demanding its disarmament.
Based on the above, I can assert that the Hochstein round will fail to impose a ceasefire, while the military confrontation will remain the master of the situation, until the conditions ripen either to a destructive regional war, or to a compromise settlement acceptable to both parties.
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Hochstein came up with a Lebanese version of the Oslo Accords!