Three scenarios: the best is bitter... but

After the sweeping victory of former (and future) US President Donald Trump, especially after his "seizure of the three powers", opinions have multiplied about the future of US/Israeli relations and the position on the Arab-Zionist conflict. In this context, it was possible - mainly from solid Israeli and Western political literature - to limit three major scenarios:

The first: is based on what Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister (also currently the sole ruler) is planning. What is meant here is: repeating the process of "milking the cow" (the American Trumpian one) with the beginning of the new presidential term of the president-elect. In this context, and at the minimum level, Netanyahu is pushing - with an open appetite - towards enlarging "very small Israel" (according to Trump). Accordingly, the "King of Israel" is planning to obtain the approval and support of "King Trump" to annex large parts of the West Bank, recognize the legitimacy of additional "settlements" there, and also confirm Israeli control over the northern Gaza Strip, and perhaps unleash the "settlement monster" there, in addition to establishing a security buffer zone in Lebanon up to the borders of the Litani River! Perhaps the pinnacle of Netanyahu's aspirations: succeeding in convincing the next American president to launch a war to strike the Iranian regime, its institutions and foundations, and especially the "nuclear facilities." In this context, the researcher finds many balanced Israeli, Western and Arab opinions and quotes that support this scenario, especially after the general picture of the team that will assume power alongside President Trump became clear. This team includes a group of extremists and hard-line Zionists who are “loyal” to Israel (perhaps sometimes more loyal than they are to the United States itself), and some of them are also the fiercest opponents of China and Iran.

The second scenario is very different, as a growing number of Israeli observers (and others) expect that the next US president will not respond to everything Netanyahu and his ruling coalition wish for. The narcissistic/dictatorial Trump (especially since this is his last term) is striving hard to go down in history as the “builder of great America” and the “fire-extinguisher” of wars around the world, in addition to expanding the Abraham Accords (which may qualify him for the Nobel Peace Prize, thus ending the multiple criminal records that have stuck to his name over the years). Therefore, President Trump is likely to take Saudi Arabia and its role into consideration, especially after confirming its image as the leader of the Islamic camp (mainly Sunni, but not clashing with, and perhaps cooperating with, the Shiite Islamic camp). In addition to this, Netanyahu’s “success” in “burning” his political reputation has made him a burden on his allies, as his “maintenance has become… expensive,” which has led one to expect that Trump will overthrow Netanyahu!! However, you will not find a serious researcher or observer who hopes that President Trump will back down from the essence of his previous policies, which are mainly included in what he previously called the infamous and notorious “Deal of the Century”!

Regarding the third scenario, a growing number of politicians, researchers, media professionals, and military personnel believe that the outcome of Trump’s policy in his new era will be a mixture (with no precise percentages specified) that includes within its folds a mixture of the elements and components of the policy and positions described in the two previous scenarios.

So, we are faced with the contents of three harsh scenarios, the sweetest of which are bitter in taste and results, and they are likely to last with us for four lean years! However, this conclusion should not make us forget the fact that Trump’s first term passed without him being able to impose his policy and vision on the patient, struggling and resisting Palestinian people for a “century” of time, and he - along with the honorable and free people of the world - is capable of overcoming Trump’s “deal of the century” in its expected new version!