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ARAB AND WORLD

Thu 27 Apr 2023 4:46 pm - Jerusalem Time

Can China bring peace to Ukraine?

From Ukraine to the Middle East, Beijing presents itself as a mediator with a leading role in resolving world crises.


The phone conversation that Xi Jinping had with Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday was the first contact between the Chinese and Ukrainian presidents since Russia, Beijing's strategic ally, invaded Ukraine in early 2022.


Below are answers to some key questions about China's diplomatic ambitions and plans for Ukraine:


Xi told Zelensky that China's "fundamental position is to promote peace talks" and pledged to send a delegation to Ukraine to help find a "political settlement".


The delegation will be led by Li Hui, Chinese Ambassador to Russia from 2009 to 2019.


But Lee's choice raised questions: Just before he left Moscow, President Vladimir Putin awarded him the Order of Friendship.


Chinese state media said at the time that the medal "is not only a tribute to his person, but also represents the friendship between the Russian and Chinese people."


The phone call between Xi and Zelensky took place after Beijing published in February a 12-point paper on Ukraine that called for dialogue and respect for the territorial sovereignty of all countries.


The West criticized that proposal for its vague wording, although it prompted Zelensky to say he would be open to talks with Xi.


Ja Ian Chung, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, said Wednesday's phone call was "a positive step forward that reconnected at the highest levels, but it remains a first step".


"Any tangible progress requires (China's) ability to get Russia to exercise restraint," he told AFP.


Wednesday's call follows Chinese diplomatic efforts aimed at reconfiguring strained relations with Europe after three years of Covid isolation.


French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited China earlier this month.


Macron caused a stir before the end of the trip when he told reporters that Europe should not get involved in a battle between Beijing and Washington over democratic, Western-backed Taiwan.


Analyst Bill Bishop wrote in his newsletter Senocism, which specializes in China, that Beijing may signal that it is willing to work with Ukraine "with the aim of wooing the most vocal voices opposed to China in the European Union."


He added that it may also seek to "put a distance between the European Union and the United States."


Likewise, the Chinese government presented itself as a mediator in other international crises, and last month it was surprisingly able to bring the two rivals in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran, closer together.


In another ambitious bid, Beijing has shown its willingness to help facilitate talks between Israel and the Palestinians.
China presents itself as a neutral party in the Ukraine war.


But in recent years, China and Russia have strengthened their economic cooperation and diplomatic contacts, with their partnership getting closer and closer since the invasion.


Beijing has refused to condemn Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine in what it refers to the conflict as a "crisis", with Xi and Putin declaring during a meeting in Moscow in March that bilateral relations had entered a "new era".


Analysts say that China is the strongest partner in the relationship with Russia, and that its influence is increasing as Moscow's international isolation deepens.
Zelensky said that this phone call and the appointment of a Ukrainian ambassador to China give "a strong impetus to the development" of relations between the two countries.


Western powers greeted the call with cautious optimism, with the European Union deeming it an "important and long overdue first step" asking China to exert influence over Russia.


In turn, an official in the French presidency said that Paris "encourages any dialogue" that may "contribute to resolving the conflict" and is in line with "the fundamental interests of Kiev" and international law.


For its part, the United States welcomed the phone call, and White House national security spokesman John Kirby described it as "a good thing."


In Moscow, the Kremlin welcomed any attempt to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine. "We welcome everything that would end the conflict in Ukraine and achieve Russia's goals," Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Xi's "boundless friendship" with Putin raises questions about the Chinese leader's impartiality.


"I don't think we know yet if that will lead to some kind of meaningful peace action, plan or proposal," the White House said.


Han Yang, a former Chinese diplomat based in Sydney, wrote in a tweet that by Xi's comment Wednesday that "there are no winners in a nuclear war" the Chinese president was "essentially pressuring Zelensky to acquiesce to Putin's territorial demands: if negotiations do not start, there is a possibility that Russia drops the bomb and it will be on you."


Zhong said that if China's efforts to broker a settlement contribute, it "will demonstrate Beijing's ability to play a constructive international role and may confirm Xi's role as an international leader."

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