Saudi-Iranian relations and international variables

Written by: Dr. Youssef Makki
On the tenth of this month, March 2023, a statement was issued on the restoration of relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the People's Republic of China, which played the role of mediator between the two countries. The statement indicated that the discussions to achieve this step lasted for nearly two years, and took place in Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman. .

The announcement of the return of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran was described as an earthquake, and as a major shift in the course of events in the Middle East. Observers and political analysts scrambled to explain what happened, based on the available facts and data.

The event in itself was not surprising. For more than a year, there have been reports of meetings taking place between representatives of the leadership of the two neighboring countries, and of serious attempts to narrow the differences between the Kingdom and the Islamic Republic. Despite the depth of the distance, and the apparent intractability of practical solutions to the differences between the two countries, since they directly affect the private interests and national security of both, reaching common consensus on these issues was not impossible.

It is true that the relationship between the Kingdom and Iran has been characterized mostly by tension, since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, but this did not prevent the establishment of normal relations between them, which reached their climax during Hashemi Rafsanjani's presidency, and also during the presidency of Ahmadinejad and Hassan Rouhani. During that period, a relationship prevailed between the two countries that was described as good, to say the least. Even when the rivalry between the two countries seemed clear, due to the delinquency of the Iranian policy of expansion, north and south of the Kingdom, Saudi policy did not abandon its hopes for water to return to its normal course, for everyone to respect the principle of good neighborliness, and for mutual recognition of the national interests of the various parties.

So, there is no surprise in the return of the relationship between the two countries. This conclusion seems natural and self-evident, when one does not take into account the stage in which it took place, the method of announcing it, and the active international element in it.

The announcement of the return of this relationship came amid tension in the relationship between America and Iran, and an Israeli threat to launch war on Tehran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear technology. The Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, openly expressed their fear of Iran's possession of weapons of mass destruction and the production of nuclear weapons. It is unlikely that these concerns would be far from the atmosphere of the talks between the two countries.

The timing of announcing the return of relations between the two countries is a courageous position that is calculated for the Saudi leadership, as it has taken a decision that is within its full sovereign right as a free and independent country, but the West, led by successive American administrations, does not deal with these matters from the perspective of respect for independence and sovereignty and operative. international law; Rather, through its position in the conflict between adults; Therefore, the Saudi step, in this context, is tantamount to an explicit assertion of the right to sovereignty and the independence of decision-making.

What doubles the importance of this step is that it comes amid the intensification of the conflict between the People's Republic of China and the United States over the issue of Taiwan. The announcement of the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran came on the day Xi Jinping was crowned President of China for a third presidential term, and also amid escalating US accusations against China of supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine and providing it with lethal weapons. America is aware of the meaning of Chinese mediation for the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

China is not satisfied with affirming that Taiwan is a red line, and that it is an integral part of its territory and national security, and declares its readiness to confront any possible American threat to its security. It goes much further than that. It is deepening its relationship with the warm waters of the Gulf, specifically with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the country that occupies a leading position in the export of oil energy. Where the Chinese president came and met with Arab leaders, in the capital, Riyadh, and the relations between the two countries took a strategic direction, and mediated the return of relations between Riyadh and Tehran, at a time when the cold war was escalating, between China and Russia on the one hand, and the West led by the United States on the other.

The return of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a natural matter, when it is placed in the category of relations between states, but it is not like that, when it is placed in the balance of the major transformations that are taking place in the international arena, which indicate the imminent emergence of a new international order, on the ruins of the system that emerged after the war The second cosmic, and according to the realities of the new power. In agreement with the Gulf