Dr. Ali Al Jarbawi: The two-state solution now means dividing the West Bank, not dividing Palestine

Dr. Ali Jarbawi: It is clear that Netanyahu and his government used October 7, 2023, as a pretext to achieve goals that had, in reality, become dreams for the Zionist movement...

Political science researcher Dr. Ali Jarbawi warned of the dangers of the post-war period on Gaza, which portends the demise of the Palestinian national project. This is due to the convergence of a number of negative external factors, the Palestinians' loss of any effective source of external support, and their exposure to the challenge of imposing a "minimal" settlement on them, which would lead to the liquidation of their cause.

In an article titled "Palestinians at a Crossroads," published in the Journal of Palestine Studies, Dr. Al-Jarbawi pointed to the extremely complex and difficult reality facing Palestinians today, which imposes an exceptional challenge on them that is far more important than any they have previously experienced during their long history of struggle against the British Mandate and the colonial Israeli occupation. He pointed out that Palestinians today face an Israel that is completely different from what they experienced in the past, after the far right, followers of religious Zionism, whose biblical doctrine is centered around the necessity of fulfilling the prophecy of "Greater Israel," gained power. The political weight in Israel is no longer solely right-wing, but rather is rooted in a fanatical, extremist, and ferocious tendency toward the Palestinians. On the regional level, the author notes, we are witnessing a decline in the traditional supportive status the Palestinian cause previously enjoyed within official Arab circles. The successive conflicts plaguing the Arab world have not only led to the withdrawal of the Qatari state in pursuit of self-preservation and the pursuit of private interests, but also to the fragmentation of collective Arab solidarity and the loss of the Arab system's standing and influence in the region, to the benefit of non-Arab powers: Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Furthermore, he points out, Israel's interventions in the region following Operation Protective Edge, in addition to undermining the authoritarian Hamas movement and exhausting its military capabilities, have also led to the dismantling of the axis of resistance, upon which the movement relied to support its existence and confrontation with Israel. With the resulting shift in the regional balance of power, it has become easier to forge a new order in the region and to close the file on the Palestinian issue, in order to remove a "chronic obstacle" to this restructuring. Trump's return to the US presidency, in the author's opinion, is the most significant change on the international scene at present, and will have far-reaching implications for reshaping the region and permanently closing the Palestinian issue. 

In this regard, Arab48 interviewed Dr. Ali Al-Jarbawi to shed further light on this topic.

Arabs 48: You warned of what you called the fading of the Palestinian national project in light of the convergence of international, regional, and Israeli factors that have conspired against the Palestinians, and in light of the lack of national immunity resulting from calcification and division. How far do these dangers extend?

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: There are very serious dangers threatening the existence and future of the Palestinian national project in light of the challenges facing the Palestinian reality and the Palestinian cause. This is in light of the convergence of three main factors: the international factor represented by Trump's rise to power in America and its accompanying repercussions; the regional factor, primarily represented by the Arab world and its declining support for the Palestinians to its lowest level; and Israel and the internal changes occurring within it, which intensified after October 7, 2023.

These three external factors are accompanied by an internal factor, namely the Palestinian internal factor, which lacks the innate immunity that would enable it to confront these external factors affecting it. If we combine the external factors with the Palestinian internal factor, we find a very dangerous situation for the Palestinian future.

Arabs 48: The danger you speak of to the survival of the national project affects the Palestinian entity, which was formed through struggle. The Palestinian national liberation movement, which has endured for decades, and which, even if it was unable to liberate the land and build a state, its only major achievement has been the establishment of a Palestinian entity?

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: True. We were unable to bring this entity through the Oslo process to its desired end, which was the establishment of a state. In my opinion, continuing to talk about a two-state solution 30 years after Oslo is merely throwing sand in the eyes, because it is clear that the two-state solution, which in the traditional Palestinian concept meant dividing Palestine into two states and obtaining a small state comprising 20% of its area, today, as a result of the ongoing facts on the ground, means dividing the West Bank, not dividing Palestine. Hence, continuing to talk about a two-state solution is a self-defeating fallacy. In a sense, we are laughing at ourselves, because the most the two-state solution can offer today—if it ever does, especially after October 7, 2023—is a "remnant state." This remnant state will not be fully sovereign, but rather partially sovereign, and its center, in my opinion, will be in the Gaza Strip, joined by the remnants of the West Bank at best. Therefore, we must examine ourselves and stop clinging to slogans that are losing their meaning and validity on the ground day by day.

"Arabs 48": Perhaps you also mean the remnants of the Gaza Strip, from which they are seeking to extract whatever they can?

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: It is clear that Netanyahu and his government used October 7, 2023, as a pretext to achieve goals that had, in reality, become dreams for the Zionist movement. As is well known, attempts were made to empty the Gaza Strip of its Palestinian population, especially the refugees of 1952, 1956, and 1967, and resettle them in Sinai, the West Bank, or other Arab countries, but they failed.

They wanted to dismantle the refugee issue, but they did not succeed. The issue was over, becoming seemingly unachievable. Then came this war, which restored hope to the Zionist movement, led by the right-wing Netanyahu government, about the possibility of achieving this, especially after Trump legitimized and covered this approach and revived ideas of displacement and expulsion.

"Arabs 48": The issue is not limited to the Gaza Strip. Operations to dismantle the refugee issue are also underway, through the displacement of the camps in the northern West Bank and emptying them of their residents.

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: True. The ongoing dismantling and persecution of UNRWA is also taking place, because the continued existence of the refugee issue is a disturbing obsession for the Zionist movement, which it has always sought to eliminate. It believes that its opportunity has arisen to accomplish what it failed to achieve previously on this issue and other issues related to the Palestinian cause. Its ultimate goal is to destroy the Palestinian national project.

"Arabs 48": In the question "What should be done?", you suggested ways to confront it.

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: From a historical perspective, we note that the Palestinian political system has been calcified for a long time, and as a result of this calcification, the division occurred, not the other way around. In other words, the calcification led to the division, not the division itself.

"Arabs 48": Do you mean that the division is a result, not a cause?

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: True. This system, which was supposed to be effective, has lost its effectiveness, calcified, and become incapable of confronting various challenges. Its primary concern, after the division, on both sides of the West Bank and Gaza, has become preserving its survival and continuity, not fulfilling its duties and carrying out its functions. This means that each party, whether Hamas in Gaza or Fatah in the West Bank, has become concerned with preserving its political authority and preserving those in power. We know that there have been numerous warnings from many over the past years that the situation is deteriorating to the point that we will be unable to confront the challenges that lie in wait for us or carry out the functions that a political system is supposed to perform.

"Arabs 48": Given the different methods of struggle that are disputed between the two groups, is it difficult to achieve our goals without national unity?

Dr. Jarbawi: If you notice, the two groups no longer differ on the goal, because both sides advocate establishing a Palestinian state, which implicitly includes the borders of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The difference is now about the method, not the goal.

"Arabs 48": You mean that this is not the difference that prevailed in the 1970s, 1980s, and even the early 1990s between those who wanted Palestine from the sea to the river, led by the Popular Front and the leftist factions, and later Hamas and Islamic Jihad?

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: The disagreement is no longer over the goal, but rather over the means, while both sides have forgotten that even the goal sought to be achieved by both means can no longer be achieved by either.

"Arabs 48": Do you mean that as long as the division persists, the goal cannot be achieved, or has the disagreement over the means undermined the goal?

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: The goal will not be achieved even if we combine both means. We must pay attention to the Palestinian reality, our goals, and the nature of this conflict. Is there an equivalence in the balance of power? Is there a possibility of that balance of power shifting in our favor in the near term? As long as external support no longer exists or has weakened dramatically with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc in 1989-1991 and with the decline of support from the Arab world due to internal and external shifts, all of this indicates that the balance of power will not change anytime soon. There is also a state of targeting by an enemy that is leaning toward the extreme right and seeking to uproot us. Meanwhile, the goal we claim to be achievable—the "two-state solution"—has not been achieved 30 years after Oslo. The entire year doesn't seek to resolve the conflict, but rather to manage it. Managing the conflict has always required raising the slogan of the two-state solution to maintain hope that we will achieve a state.

"Arabs 48": In other words, has the two-state solution become a misleading slogan and a facade under which the conflict is managed?

Dr. Jarbawi: Exactly. It is a means of managing the conflict. Therefore, we must stop continuing to disagree over the means—"negotiations" or "armed resistance"—and focus on the goal and define what we want at this stage. From my perspective, I believe we are facing a conflict that will continue for a long time, and that if it ends now, it will end with a "remnant state" stripped of its sovereignty and diminished. This is because the best that can be achieved, given the existing balance, is the reduced solution proposed by Trump during his first term in the framework of the "Deal of the Century," if he has not already been overthrown. Therefore, and in light of our awareness that the conflict is long-term, we must focus on the central Palestinian goal of remaining in our homeland and strengthening our steadfastness there.

"Arabs 48": In the article, you discussed the two options: accepting a deficient state or a one-state solution?

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: What I believe is that the political forces in the West Bank and Gaza—because both sides accept and speak of a Palestinian state—if they are satisfied with the two-state solution, they must be frank with the Palestinian people that the two-state solution will lead to a state diminished in geographic area and sovereignty.

They must be frank with the people so that they do not continue to hope that we will establish a state along the 1967 borders with Jerusalem or East Jerusalem as its capital. They must be frank with them that we want to achieve what we can, and that if they support the two-state solution, this is what they will achieve in the two-state solution.

"Arabs 48": Otherwise, we will return to the starting point, which is the one-state solution?

Dr. Al-Jarbawi: Otherwise, we must realize that we are facing a protracted conflict. In this context, I have no ideas or scenarios for a solution. Rather, I believe that we must establish our presence on this land. This means that the Palestinian entity based on it, instead of being preoccupied with negotiations or armed resistance, should be preoccupied with how to stabilize the people on their land and provide them with services to strengthen their presence and survival on this land. This is because the conflict will not be resolved now, nor will it happen in the next decade or two.