Is Netanyahu's wall of power cracking?

The main reasons for believing that this wall of power is cracking are: First, the picture regarding Trump is not yet completely clear, although there are numerous hints that there is no blank check for Israel allowing it to do whatever it wants.

Antoine Shalhat

There is a recent belief in Israel that the wall of power surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is cracking. This wall appeared to be solid following what was considered the success of the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which ended with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and senior party officials, preceded by the "pager attack."

The cohesion of his government coalition is another consolidating factor, compounded by two other factors: the resumption of the war on Gaza and the assumption of the presidency of Donald Trump. Prevailing assessments indicate that Washington's relations with Israel will be closer and better than they were during the Joe Biden administration, increasing the coalition's chances of survival and cohesion, free from American pressure related to the course of the war. Meanwhile, there are significant expectations and hopes from the Trump administration regarding issues such as Iran, Syria, the annexation of the West Bank, and the stance on Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

It is well known that one of the motivations for resuming the war is Netanyahu's desire to do so in order to preserve the survival of his coalition, given two developments related to the fate of this coalition resulting from the prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas last January: First, the resignation of the "Jewish Power" party from the coalition in protest against the deal; second, the threat by Religious Zionism Party leader and Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who refused to join the "Jewish Power" move, to bring down the government if the second phase of the deal is implemented and the war is ended. Smotrich emphasized the necessity of not ending the war before achieving all of its goals. According to Smotrich, he expects the Israeli army, after the end of the first phase of the prisoner exchange deal, to "return to a completely different kind of fighting," and to "occupy the entire Gaza Strip, destroy Hamas militarily and civilian, and return all the abducted soldiers." As for Ben-Gvir, immediately after the resumption of the war, the announcement of the dismissal of the Shin Bet chief, and the imminent dismissal of the attorney general, he announced his return to the coalition government and to the ministries previously held by his party's representatives, most notably the Ministry of National Security.

The most important reasons for believing that this wall of power is beginning to crack are: First, the picture regarding Trump is not yet completely clear, although there are numerous hints that there is no blank check for Israel to do as it pleases. Trump apparently wants to restore American greatness above all else. Although he has floated ideas regarding the Panama Canal and Greenland, he has made it clear that wars are not on his agenda, and that he seeks to normalize Israel's relations with Saudi Arabia and establish a new order in the Middle East. Some assert that Netanyahu has recently received several slaps in the face from the US president, whether regarding Iran, tariffs, or even Turkey.

Second, Trump's slaps coincided with an internal blow from the Israeli Supreme Court, which decided to freeze the dismissal of Shin Bet (General Security Service) Director Ronen Bar. This decision sets a clear line for Netanyahu regarding the limits of his authority.

The letter submitted by the Shin Bet director to the Supreme Court, as well as the testimony submitted by his predecessor, Yoram Cohen, detailed how Netanyahu has been systematically trying for years to harness the Shin Bet's capabilities for his own personal gain, whether to deal with political opponents, silence protests, or help him evade justice. According to one analysis, the letter clearly demonstrates Netanyahu's goal of achieving a one-man rule that eliminates anyone who threatens him.

Perhaps what enables Netanyahu to advance this goal is the presence of a weak opposition to him, and a public sector that has succeeded in instilling fear among its senior officials, just as it has succeeded in instilling fear among the ranks of the security establishment, as was evident last week in the hysterical reaction of the Chief of Staff and the Commander of the Air Force to the letter from the Pilots Forum, which expressed a position on the paramount importance of freeing those held by Hamas in Gaza at the expense of continuing the war.