Israel's next military option

Among the results of the battles and wars that Israel fought on the fronts of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the October 7, 2023 war, clearly stated that Israel used all its surplus military, armament and destructive power, and the unprecedented “savagery” and “aggression” that accompanied it, as it sought in Lebanon to destroy the popular incubator of the resistance, “the doctrine of the suburbs”, while in the Gaza Strip, it used the “Jabalia doctrine”, to annihilate the popular incubator. These are the two doctrines that Israel is working to implement in its aggressive war on the cities and towns of the northern West Bank and its camps.

The results of these two battles clearly stated that Israel, despite all its possession of weapons of mass destruction, advanced technology, artificial intelligence, advanced intelligence and espionage network, and American and Western European military, security, intelligence and financial support, was unable to achieve what Netanyahu called a crushing victory, nor achieve the strategic objectives of the war on the two fronts, although Israel succeeded in directing painful and major blows to Hezbollah and the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip and at its heart Hamas, but the strategic objectives of the major war, which were extremist and directed at the Israeli interior, were not achieved, and the scenes transmitted from the Gaza Strip, in the prisoner exchange operations in its four batches of the first stage, caused a state of shock and confusion inside Israel, a shock that exposed Netanyahu’s government to the risk of falling from within, as Ben Gvir resigned from the government and the coalition, he and his party’s ministers, and said that what happened in the prisoner handover operations, and the scenes and pictures transmitted, clearly stated who is the victor and who is the loser, and that we did not achieve an absolute victory in Netanyahu’s language, but rather what was achieved was a major failure. It is a devastating and comprehensive failure, and it does not only pose a threat to Israel's national security, but it is a national disgrace to all citizens of the state, as well as the media, analysts, media commentators, military and security personnel. They said, "What absolute victory was achieved? What was our army doing for 15 months, in light of the appearance, presence and heavy military and civilian presence of the Palestinian resistance, with its various battalions, and in light of the highly precise and organized arrangement, organization and deployment that only a developed country can do?" Therefore, what happened is a major failure, added to the military and security failure on October 7, 2023. In the end, we were forced to accept a prisoner exchange agreement that would lead to a permanent ceasefire, a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from the Strip, and a return to coexistence with the resistance forces on the borders of the Gaza Strip. An agreement that could have been achieved nine months ago, avoiding further losses in soldiers, officers, military equipment, the economy and morale.

The scenes and images transmitted in the prisoner exchange operations, which speak of the resistance’s victory in the image war and superiority in the moral aspect, confirm that the Hamas movement has not disappeared from the scene, neither militarily nor civilly, but rather it is present militarily, popularly, and politically, and with the recognition of Israeli military and security leaders, it is the only party capable of ruling the Gaza Strip.

On the Lebanese front, despite the heavy losses suffered by Hezbollah, which included its Secretary-General Nasrallah and his deputy Hashem Safieddine, it did not succeed in dismantling the party politically, militarily or in the field. It did not lose control over the command and control system, and its military apparatus operating in the field under its leadership dealt harsh blows to Israel, including targeting the Golani Brigade base "elite" with a suicide drone near Haifa, which resulted in dozens of dead and wounded soldiers and officers, as well as another suicide drone that targeted Netanyahu's home in the city of Caesarea, hitting the window of his bedroom.

Israel accepted a forced ceasefire in Lebanon, and was unable to impose its conditions for a ceasefire, and accepted Resolution 1701, achieving privileges in this resolution, as the committee formed and supervising the implementation of the resolution is of one political color, America, France, Israel, and the international UNIFIL, in addition to the Lebanese state, and this resolution is international, and is supposed to be presented to the UN Security Council that issued it, so that a new committee can be formed to supervise its implementation, and other countries can participate in it.

The war on both fronts struck the colonial project in two of its pillars of strength: the ability to continue the occupation and the ability to displace. This war also destroyed the hopes of extremists, Talmudists and Torahists in achieving their dream of establishing what is known as “Greater Israel” or “Greater Israel.”

Israel is now facing two strategic facts, the first of which is the inability to return to a comprehensive war, in light of the conflicts, divisions and crises that the occupying state is experiencing, which are escalating and portend the collapse of Netanyahu’s government from within, and the danger of the disintegration of the military establishment, in light of the “massacre” of resignations it is witnessing against the backdrop of the military and security failure on October 7. Therefore, we find that America is seeking to conclude a comprehensive deal, the main basis of which is normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, so that it can become a “legitimate” geographic component of the region’s geography, and move towards a political solution that saves Israel from itself and its crises, based on the establishment of a Palestinian state on part of the land of historical Palestine, within the borders of June 4, 1967, with Jerusalem as its capital, and the right of return for refugees according to UN Resolution 194. However, this solution will clash with the control of the right-wing and extremist forces over the government, government and political decision-making, as the occupying state, with all its secular and religious components, is becoming increasingly extremist, and there is an identification between Israeli society and the ruling establishment, and it has begun to hold the “neck” of political decision-making, from They assassinated Rabin in 1995, and Ben Gvir and Smotrich are the offshoots of that.

Therefore, in light of the blocked horizon of any political solution, and the lack of any Israeli readiness to meet this political project, and also the inability to return to a comprehensive war on the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon fronts, and Netanyahu’s fear and obsession that stopping the war on the Gaza Strip and his comprehensive withdrawal from it may push him towards gambling with his political and personal future, in light of Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s hold on the “neck” of his political decision, and the ongoing threat to blow up his government from within, and therefore he will seek to continue his aggressive wars on the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, within what is known as the “battle between two wars” theory, and impose new deterrent equations, will Netanyahu succeed in achieving this, in light of American support and participation in this project?