Munther Al-Hayek: Whoever wants to end UNRWA’s work must implement Resolution 194, which returns Palestinian refugees to their homes

Sami Mshasha: What is being planned now is a second educational, health and social catastrophe and systematic impoverishment leading to displacement.

Tawfiq Taama: The establishment of UNRWA came by a decision of the General Assembly, and any attempt to abolish it must be done through a similar international framework.

Dr. Amani Al-Qarm: Halting UNRWA funding will create a lasting catastrophe that will cast a shadow over the security and stability of the entire Middle East

Osama Al-Sharif: Israel and America have two common goals in the next stage: ending the refugee file and closing the camps file

Hazem Al-Qawasmi: The Trump administration seems ready to make decisions that contribute to resolving major issues in favor of Israel, including closing UNRWA

The measures taken by the Israeli occupation state against the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the attacks on its headquarters, staff and schools, the accusations levelled against many of its employees of participating in the October 7 attack, and the law passed by the Israeli Knesset to ban its activities in areas under the Israeli occupation state, especially Jerusalem, did not come out of nowhere and were not the result of immediate reactions, but rather preludes to major decisions against this international organization whose existence is linked to the Palestinian refugee issue.

The occupying state would not have dared to carry out such practices or decisions without the American green light and the countries that follow its orbit, which doubles the fears of what the next stage will bring, as Donald Trump re-enters the White House, in light of the decisions associated with his name and his recognition of Jerusalem as the unified capital of Israel, the transfer of the American embassy to it, and the recognition of the annexation of the Syrian Golan, all the way to his plan for an unjust political settlement called the "Deal of the Century". Consequently, there is a real fear that Trump will end the existence of the Relief Agency entirely, in order to cancel the Palestinian refugee issue.

In light of these concerns, question marks arise about what could result from dissolving UNRWA and its consequences for millions of refugees to whom it provides social, health, educational and other services, especially in light of the catastrophic situation in the Gaza Strip, most of whose inhabitants are refugees, after fifteen months of killing, destruction, starvation, poverty and diseases that are ravaging the refugees and their loss of their homes, schools, hospitals and other educational and service institutions.

Writers and analysts who spoke to Al-Quds considered what is being planned now to be a second catastrophe, educational, health, and social, and systematic impoverishment leading to displacement, stressing that stopping funding for UNRWA will create a lasting catastrophe that will cast its shadow over the security and stability of the entire Middle East. They noted that the Trump administration seems ready to make decisions that will contribute to resolving major issues in Israel’s favor, including closing UNRWA.

UNRWA is the lifeline of Palestinian refugees

The spokesman for the Fatah movement in the Gaza Strip, Munther Al-Hayek, said that UNRWA has been historically linked to the Palestinian refugee since the displacement of the Palestinian people from their land in 1948.

Al-Hayek explained that UNRWA continues to support our Palestinian people, but the Netanyahu government seeks to eliminate the Palestinian state project and the right of return of refugees to their homes, in an attempt to end the Palestinian national project.

Al-Hayek stressed the need for countries that have refrained from supporting UNRWA to return to their commitment to the UN resolution by which this organization was established, which aims to provide support and relief to the Palestinian people.

He pointed out that UNRWA has complete records of the poor in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and refugee camps, and it is the body responsible for providing humanitarian aid to them.

He stressed the Fatah movement's rejection of Netanyahu's government's plans and its confrontation of them, calling on the countries supporting UNRWA to continue providing support, especially financial support, in a strong and sustainable manner.

He added: "Whoever wants to end UNRWA's work must implement UN Resolution 194, which guarantees the right of return of Palestinian refugees to their homes from which they were displaced in 1948. Only then can we say that we do not need UNRWA. However, as long as the Palestinians are displaced and homeless, UNRWA must remain in place in accordance with international legitimacy resolutions."

UNRWA is the body authorized to bring in and distribute aid.

Regarding the UNRWA budget, and what is said about its distribution to humanitarian organizations and civil society, Al-Hayek said that UNRWA is the body authorized to bring in funds and aid and distribute them to the Palestinian people according to the records it has.

He added: "We trust UNRWA and want it to continue doing its work, especially in the relief situation in the Gaza Strip, which has worsened after the insane war waged by the occupation government against our people."

He pointed out that there are accusations and demonization against UNRWA by the Netanyahu government, which claims that UNRWA distributes aid through other humanitarian organizations.

Al-Hayek explained that there are humanitarian organizations that work independently, stressing that the legitimate framework that the Palestinians trust and that is present in the territories occupied in 1967 and in the refugee camps is UNRWA.

UNRWA's financial situation this year will be very difficult

For his part, Sami Mshasha, an expert on international organizations and media affairs, confirmed that UNRWA’s financial situation this year will be very difficult.

He said: For years, UNRWA's financial deficit has been accumulating, which has negatively affected the level of services provided to millions of Palestinian refugees, as UNRWA's regular budget amounts to more than $1.4 billion, and as in previous years, the pledges secured by donor countries did not exceed half of this amount. In fact, we will be below this level.

Mshasha touched on this year's emergency budgets, adding: Given the destruction that befell the camps in Gaza and Lebanon, and the needs of emergency services in Syria and the West Bank, they will be very large.

However, UNRWA will receive crumbs from it, which will greatly limit its ability to respond and assist.

He pointed out that the project budgets allocated to rebuild hundreds of UNRWA facilities that were completely destroyed will be very large, and UNRWA is expected to receive a small portion of them.

The United States will not resume its donations at all.

He stressed that the United States is no longer the largest donor to UNRWA, and will never resume its donations. Like Sweden (the fourth largest donor), it has shifted its support to international and local institutions.

He pointed out that other countries, such as Switzerland, are considering implementing the same approach. Countries such as Norway, Denmark, Spain, Britain, Japan, and France will continue to support UNRWA, but will not increase the level of donations to cover the American and Swedish losses.

Mish'sha' addressed Arab donations, saying: They are irregular and difficult to rely on, because the amounts allocated annually to UNRWA by Arab countries are small, and cover a small percentage of the total of UNRWA's various budgets.

He stressed that UNRWA's mandate is dedicated to serving Palestinian refugees, and that replacing UNRWA with other international institutions, such as the World Food Organization and local civil society organizations with limited budgets, will deprive large sectors of refugees of basic services, especially health and social services dedicated to the poorest of the poor, which will raise levels of extreme poverty and economic exposure to unprecedented levels.

A trend that will destroy the educational process for hundreds of thousands of students

On the educational level, he explained that this approach would destroy the educational process for hundreds of thousands of students in UNRWA schools, noting that alternative institutions to UNRWA have, at best, dozens of employees, while UNRWA in the Gaza Strip alone has 13,000 teachers, doctors, technicians, cleaners, engineers and others, which makes it very difficult to replace them.

Mish'sha' said: What is being planned now is a second catastrophe: an educational, health, and social catastrophe, and systematic impoverishment leading to displacement, leading to a second catastrophe with all its components.

Mshasha touched on the imminent arrival of Trump. He said: There is an impression that Trump's arrival to power will exacerbate UNRWA's existential and financial crisis. This is not accurate, stressing that his arrival will only reinforce the current measures and efforts to weaken and exhaust the agency, which have so far made great strides.

He pointed out that the demonization of UNRWA and the efforts to end it and eliminate the right of return are primarily Israeli efforts.

He added: Their efforts to incite the countries of the world against them aim to ensure the success of their own efforts to expel the agency and prepare international, regional, and local alternatives.

Mish'sha concluded his statement to Al-Quds by emphasizing that the goal is not only to replace the role of UNRWA and its humanitarian services, but also to end the Palestinian refugee file far from an actual translation of the right of return, and to come closer to establishing the concept of settlement, forced and voluntary displacement, and material compensation for refugees.

Israel's actions against UNRWA threaten humanitarian catastrophe

In turn, political analyst Tawfiq Taama said that the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) is considered one of the most prominent international institutions that plays a vital role in the lives of Palestinian refugees, as it provides them with basic humanitarian services in the areas of health, education, and nutrition.

He pointed out that the establishment of UNRWA in 1949 came by a decision of the United Nations General Assembly, which means that any attempt to abolish it must also be done through a similar international framework.

Taama explained that UNRWA provides its vital services to Palestinian refugees in various areas, including Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Jordan, and Syria.

He pointed out that this institution represents an international witness to the Palestinian Nakba of 1948 and the displacement of Palestinians from their lands.

UNRWA's humanitarian function and political role

He added: UNRWA does not only provide humanitarian aid, but also affirms through its presence the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their lands, which makes it an obstacle to Israeli projects seeking to completely end this right.

Taama touched on the measures taken by Israel against UNRWA, referring to the Israeli Knesset’s decision last October, which prevents the agency from operating in areas controlled by Israel, including the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip.

He explained that this decision gives UNRWA only three months to operate before its offices are closed and its activities are completely banned.

He pointed out that this decision includes imposing restrictions on institutions that deal with UNRWA, and threatens sanctions on its employees who continue to work with it. Tohme described these steps as illegal, because they contradict the international resolutions that established UNRWA.

Tohme warned that banning UNRWA would lead to a major humanitarian disaster, as millions of Palestinian refugees depend on its basic services. He pointed out that the agency's budget, which amounts to about $1.4 billion annually, is used to provide services in the fields of education, health, social protection, and nutrition.

He added that the cessation of UNRWA services will leave millions of refugees without education, health care or social support, which will exacerbate the already deteriorating humanitarian conditions, especially in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli motives for canceling UNRWA

Taama considered that Israel is working to end the existence of UNRWA because it represents an obstacle to achieving its political goals.

He explained that UNRWA is a living witness to the Palestinian Nakba and the right of refugees to return to their lands.

He pointed out that Israel believes that the continued work of UNRWA hinders its plans to liquidate the Palestinian issue, as the existence of the agency represents an international guarantee for the rights of Palestinian refugees.

Taama discussed the options available to the international community to confront the Israeli decision, noting that there are fears that humanitarian organizations and civil society organizations (NGOs) will be resorted to as alternatives to UNRWA. However, he stressed that this step could be considered an implicit recognition of the Israeli decision, which is dangerous.

He stressed that these organizations' acceptance of the Israeli decision means approval of the cancellation of UNRWA and the right of return, which will have disastrous repercussions on Palestinian refugees and on the Palestinian cause in general.

He stressed the importance of the Arab and international role in pressuring Israel to reverse its decision, and called for preserving the work of UNRWA as one of the main pillars that support Palestinian refugees and preserve their rights.

Taama concluded his speech by stressing the need for the international community to assume its humanitarian and political responsibilities towards Palestinian refugees, considering that the continuation of UNRWA’s work is an urgent necessity to prevent a new humanitarian catastrophe that would be added to the already existing suffering.

Harming UNRWA will break the backbone of the Palestinian cause

The writer and researcher in American and Israeli affairs, Dr. Amani Al-Qarm, said that the hostility between UNRWA on the one hand and Israel and America/Trump on the other hand is not new, and is not a product of the current war, but rather goes back to the rise of the Zionist right-wing current inside Israel, where new ideas and trends have emerged in the Israeli political mind, the essence of which is to liquidate the Palestinian cause by getting rid of its manifestations and tools, especially those that enjoy international legitimacy.

Al-Qarm pointed out that the refugee issue is one of the constants of the Palestinian cause, and is a living witness to the existence of the Palestinian problem, and that the establishment of UNRWA was linked to the issue of the Palestinian refugee. As long as there are refugees, UNRWA will continue to exist.

She stressed that Israeli policy, despite the oppression, marginalization, and all the settlement projects that were proposed throughout the history of the conflict, whether inside or outside the drawers, and the attempts to resolve it, could not end the refugee issue.

Al-Qarm added: The extremist Israeli thought has turned into an attempt to end the existence of the only legitimate and international organization charged with following up on refugee affairs, by drying up its sources of funding, closing its offices, and taking decisions in the Knesset to stop working with it following the 1967 agreement, and withdrawing all permits and privileges granted to its employees to facilitate its work.

She explained that the attack on UNRWA, by force and imposing a fait accompli, and distorting its role by accusing it of being a stronghold of Hamas, will lead to breaking the backbone of the Palestinian cause and cancelling the status of “refugee” for five million Palestinians who hold this classification and benefit from UNRWA services.

UNRWA is a multifaceted life system

She pointed out that President Trump, in his first term, and motivated by the Israeli right, stopped supporting the agency, believing that the attack on UNRWA would continue in the coming years.

But Crimea strongly doubted the possibility of achieving the Israeli-American goal, stressing that stopping funding for UNRWA would create a lasting catastrophe in the coming years, which would not only affect the refugees, but would cast a shadow over the security and stability of the entire Middle East, and its repercussions might extend beyond the seas.

Al-Qarm pointed out that the problem lies in the fact that UNRWA is not just a relief organization, but rather a multi-faceted and successive life system, similar to a continuous chain for every Palestinian family that has held the status of “refugee” since the emergence of the issue due to the Israeli occupation.

She added: UNRWA, through its various programs, especially in the field of education, played a pivotal role in taming the Palestinian collective thought related to the cause. It also created conditions that represent both a challenge and a hope for the refugee to improve his status within the framework of international legitimacy laws and moderate thought.

Al-Qarm stressed that knowledge has become a primary goal for Palestinians and a way to survive and survive.

She asked: "If UNRWA is stopped, who will fill the void in this entire life system except extremist and radical ideas?", likening it to releasing a genie from a bottle to ignite a fire, as it cannot be returned and the fire cannot be extinguished.

Trump's plan aims to liquidate the Palestinian cause

For his part, political analyst Osama Al-Sharif confirmed that liquidating the Palestinian issue and closing the file once and for all represents the plan of former US President Donald Trump in his second term.

Al-Sharif explained that the repercussions of October 7 created the conditions for implementing this plan and completing Trump’s project related to the so-called “Abraham Accords.”

He pointed out that there are two common goals for both Israel and America during the next stage to achieve this project, the first is to end the refugee file: This is represented by the legal liquidation of the Relief Agency (UNRWA), as happened through the law recently passed by the Israeli Knesset. This procedure requires the naturalization of Palestinian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, which practically means dropping the right of return and settling refugees in their places of residence.

He added: The second goal is to close the camps file: Israel seeks to evacuate the camps in the West Bank either through economic siege and terror to push their residents to leave voluntarily, or by destroying the camps’ infrastructure so that they become uninhabitable.

Al-Sharif pointed out that the camps represent a constant concern for Israel, as they are an incubator environment for resistance inside and outside Palestine, and destroying them means depriving the resistance of this supportive environment.

He pointed out that this approach is what Israel recently implemented in Gaza through the systematic destruction of the camps there.

Al-Sharif added: What will remain after that is the imposition of a political solution that does not include the establishment of an independent Palestinian state or the end of the occupation, but rather is based on an old-new project under the title of "self-rule under the spears of occupation."

He stressed that the current geopolitical conditions in the region may contribute to facilitating the implementation of these goals, noting that proceeding with this plan will not face significant political opposition, especially after the decline in the influence of what is known as the "Axis of Resistance."

UNRWA services unlikely to return to normal

In turn, economic advisor Hazem Al-Qawasmi said that the horizon does not seem promising for the return of UNRWA services to what they were, at a time when the afflicted Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip are in dire need of them since the Nakba.

Al-Qawasmi pointed out that the attack on this international relief organization during the past year, in addition to the decision of the US Congress and the White House to continue to stop funding allocated to it until March 2025, as well as the Arab silence, encouraged the fascist government in Israel and its supporters to deepen their attacks on this organization with the aim of liquidating it completely and burying it during the next few months of this year.

Al-Qawasmi added: The expected US administration headed by Donald Trump seems ready to make bold decisions that will contribute to resolving major issues in Israel’s favor, most notably the final closure of UNRWA.

He stressed that this would lead to the liquidation of the issue of refugees and Palestinian camps, regardless of any comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue.

He pointed out that the statements issued by the expected Trump administration regarding the Middle East, most notably the appointment of the new US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, do not bode well for finding a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue, including the rights of Palestinian refugees and the establishment of a Palestinian state on the June 4 borders.

He also pointed out that Trump's first expected decisions may include stopping funding for UNRWA completely and pressuring European countries to follow the same approach, which will lead to accelerating the pace of systematic targeting of Palestinian camps.

Al-Qawasmi stressed that these steps threaten to close the Palestinian refugee file and cancel the role of UNRWA, which portends a worsening of the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, at a time when the targeting of camps is increasing as part of the forced displacement plans adopted by the Israeli government.