The future of the Palestinian cause and the path and outcome of any future settlement will be affected by Trump’s return to the White House

Trump's policy will revolve around major issues that are primarily related to restoring America's position in the world.

Trump wants stability that preserves American interests in the region and is based on continued, unwavering support for Israel.

Trump gives Saudi Arabia a special status due to its wealth and religious status that qualifies it to lead the Arab and Islamic worlds

For Trump, the Palestinian issue is nothing more than a factor of unrest and an obstacle to regional stability.

Trump's settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not necessarily be consistent with the vision of the right-wing-religious Netanyahu government

Away from slogans, Israel was able to undermine the capabilities of the "Axis of Resistance", dismantle the "unity of the arenas" and weaken Iran's position.

Israel provided the appropriate ground for imposing the stability that Trump wants in the region even before he took office

The Palestinian issue has become a heavy burden and a source of annoyance that many ruling regimes want to get rid of and remove from their shoulders.

A set of data that have currently gathered on the external and internal Palestinian levels indicate that the next stage, specifically during Trump's second term, will have repercussions that will have a major impact on the Palestinian cause, and perhaps decisive in terms of the long-standing attempts to end it and close the file related to addressing the legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people. What makes this stage fraught with risks, which the Palestinians are expected to face, is that it comes with the convergence of a group of external factors, American, regional and Israeli, putting intense pressure towards resolving the Arab/Palestinian-Israeli conflict, on the one hand, at a time when the internal Palestinian situation has reached a state of extreme weakness, resulting from the loss of self-immunity, which greatly reduces the Palestinian ability to be able to confront incoming pressures with the required effectiveness, on the other hand. What is very worrying with this situation is the high possibility of passing the "minimum settlement" on the Palestinians, and being forced to accept it, if the Palestinians do not take rapid and effective action to address the deterioration of the internal situation, and restore at least the minimum level of lost immunity.

To understand the impact of external factors on the future of the Palestinian cause, it is necessary to investigate the starting points and objectives, and clarify the impact of the intersection of interests of the main external actors in this file. These actors can be divided into three levels: international, regional, and Israeli.

International level: Although the unipolar international system is witnessing transformations, albeit slow, towards multipolarity, the United States of America still monopolizes, currently and for the foreseeable future, the most important position and the broadest international influence in the Middle East region, and the absolute control over the Palestinian-Israeli conflict settlement file. This monopolization continues not only because of the expansion of the scope and depth of the penetration of American interests in the region, and the resulting ties in various fields with many ruling regimes in it, especially the organic relationship that links it to Israel, but also because China does not give priority to this region as it consolidates its rise and strengthens its competition with America, on the one hand, and because of the shrinking Russian influence in it, in favor of expanding penetration in other regions, especially in Africa, on the other hand, not to mention the European subordination to America in general. on the third hand. On this basis, the future of the Palestinian cause, and the path and outcome of any future settlement that may be proposed for it, will be greatly affected over the next four years by Donald Trump’s return to the White House, his outlook and basic priorities towards the world, the position of the Middle East region on the map of these priorities, and the determinants of his vision for how to address the Palestinian issue.

Addressing domestic issues to revive American supremacy

Given the foundations that governed Trump's vision and actions during his previous presidency, and his frequent statements currently, his policy during his upcoming presidency will revolve around major issues. For him, these issues are primarily related to restoring America's position in the world. Under the slogan "America First," Trump will give full attention to addressing domestic issues that he considers a priority and necessary to revive American superiority, foremost among which are strengthening the economic situation, establishing internal security, and reducing illegal immigration. Along with this, and with equal importance, comes confronting the external competition that the country is facing, specifically in the field of trade, which aims to weaken it and undermine its position, not only from China, but also from other countries that are traditionally considered allies and friends. In his endeavors at the domestic and foreign levels, Trump does not want to be distracted from achieving victory by continuing to be involved in military wars and being preoccupied with side conflicts. The wars he is preparing to wage are of a different nature, such as the one over tariffs, and require a regrouping of resources, not a dissipation of them in areas and on issues he does not consider to be in the American interest. This interest, for him, is very clear, specific and focused, and cannot tolerate continued distraction by immersion in matters he considers not essential to rebuilding America’s future and restoring its unique position in the international system.

The Middle East is not at the top of Trump's priorities

Although the Middle East remains important to Trump, it does not rise to the level of a central issue in his view, nor does it fall within his top priorities. Therefore, what he wants is to achieve stability in it, with the aim of removing it from his agenda, which is crowded with pursuing more important goals. To this end, he threatened that he would not hesitate to confront any party in the region that seeks to obstruct the achievement of this stability. As for the basis of stability that preserves American interests in the region, it is based on the continuation of steadfast and absolute support for Israel, an ally with an organic (supra-strategic) relationship with America, and empowering it as a dominant regional power. This is achieved through two things: completing the normalization of Israel’s relations with the Arab countries, the gateway to which is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and weakening Iran, reducing its regional influence, and ending its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

Since he does not want to be preoccupied with war, it is expected, and there are indications that point to this, that Trump will achieve the goal with Iran by concluding a favorable deal that is already being carefully prepared.

As for the Arab countries that are still standing and have not yet disintegrated, they generally do not enjoy a high degree of appreciation from him, and he does not take them into account much, as he considers them obedient and guaranteed to be subservient and loyal, and their political systems perform the functional roles required of them regularly. Within this framework, Trump gives Saudi Arabia a special status, not only for its wealth and its strategic relationship with America that has spanned nearly a century, but also for its religious status that qualifies it to lead the Arab and Islamic worlds. This makes it a reliable partner to achieve stability in the region, and it can be used to address other issues outside it. As for the normalization of relations between many countries in the region and Israel, the issue was effective, and the outbreak of war following Operation Protective Edge prevented its completion. As a result of the war and its disastrous repercussions on the Gaza Strip, Saudi Arabia demanded that the completion of the stalled normalization agreement include a commitment to resolving the Palestinian issue on the basis of the "two-state solution" and a reliable path to establishing a Palestinian state.

Addressing the Palestinian issue on pragmatic grounds

As for the Palestinian issue, for Trump it is nothing more than a factor of unrest and an obstacle to regional stability. The starting point for dealing with it, for him, is not ideological, but rather he wants to reach a settlement on it based on pragmatic foundations, governed by two things: achieving the American interest in regional stability, on the one hand, and achieving Israel’s interest, on the other hand. Although at first glance it seems that the two interests are similar, in reality they intersect a lot, but they are not completely identical. The Israeli interest is narrower than the complex and intertwined American interest in the region. Therefore, Trump’s settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not necessarily be completely identical to the vision of the current right-wing-religious Netanyahu government, since regional stability through normalizing Israel’s relations with Arab countries requires a response, even at a minimal level, to the Saudi demand. The “Deal of the Century” that Trump proposed during his first term is the best evidence of this, as his vision in it did not match the Israeli position of preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state. Rather, his plan was based on establishing this state, although in its details it did not go beyond being a “remnant state” consisting of fragments that were disjointed.

"Al-Aqsa Flood" and the Shifts in Regional Power Balances

Regional level: Since October 7, 2023, the region has witnessed, and continues to witness, fundamental shifts in the regional balance of power, which will have profound repercussions on the future of the Palestinian cause, and specifically on the content of the potential political settlement. It is worth noting, first, that the main powers that constitute the effective and influential pillars in the region are the non-Arab countries; Israel, Iran and Turkey, with the decline of the extent of Arab power and influence, and its gathering in some Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia. As for the rest of the Arab countries, they are either preoccupied with addressing their escalating internal problems, or constitute - especially in the Arab Levant - arenas and battlefields for violent international and regional conflicts. It is also worth acknowledging, second, that the state of official Arab solidarity is going through its weakest stages, after the status of the Qatari state has been strengthened over the past decades, and in contrast to it, the actual political influences of Arab nationalism have diminished, which has led to the interests of individual countries, which are often conflicting, being given precedence over the collective interest of the nation and what was called the "Arab world."

Following the "Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa" that surprised Hamas, the war that Israel launched on the Gaza Strip, and then on Lebanon, had negative repercussions on it, covering various fields, and it is still suffering from them to this day. However, this war, which some parties hoped would exhaust Israel and weaken its regional position in a sustainable manner, if not completely destroy it, did not produce what was hoped for. Israel, with massive external support from its Western allies, led by America, was able to absorb, albeit with great difficulty and at a high cost, the totality of the shocks it received, and to carry out violent repercussions through which it changed the regional balance of power in the region. With a violent destructive war on the Gaza Strip, Israel fundamentally weakened Hamas's military capabilities and the possibility of continuing its control over the Strip. And with a quick and intensive war on Lebanon, it was able to disable Hezbollah and effectively remove it from the confrontation with it for a long time to come, if not in a final and sustainable manner. Following an effective strike deep inside Iran, it made an effective contribution to eliminating Assad’s rule in Damascus, thus ending the Iranian presence in Syria, and cutting off Iran’s main supply line to Hezbollah, not to mention expanding its occupation of more Syrian territory.

Regardless of the continuation of the war with slogans, Israel has actually been able to undermine the capabilities of the "Axis of Resistance", dismantle the "unity of the arenas", and weaken Iran's position as a competing power in the region. Thus, Operation "Noah's Flood" and its successive repercussions so far have, in the end, reduced the state of severe and escalating tension and congestion in the region, on the one hand, and reduced, in Israel's favor, the intensity of the state of Israeli-Iranian polarization in it, on the other hand. Thus, the result is that Israel was able, with great suffering that will have negative effects on it in the future, to strengthen its position as a regional power in the region, and at the same time provide the appropriate ground for imposing the stability that Trump wants for it, even before he takes office, and to facilitate his task of completing this imposition after taking office.

Pressure on Palestinians to accept low ceiling settlement

This completion is achieved by Trump's handling of the two remaining files. The first is the Iranian nuclear file, which has increased the possibility that Iran, in light of the changes taking place in the region, has become more open and accepting of concluding a deal with Trump on it, leading to a gradual lifting of the sanctions that have exhausted its economy, and its re-absorption as a more open and positive state in the region. The second is related to completing the normalization "Abraham Accords" between Israel and the rest of the Arab countries, which Saudi Arabia linked to determining a positive path to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict by establishing a Palestinian state. In this context, it is worth noting that many indicators indicate that the Palestinian issue has no longer, in recent decades, especially after the strengthening of the position of the Qatari state, on the one hand, and the increasing problems of the internal Palestinian situation and the burdens "thrown" on these countries because of it, on the other hand, constitute for the ruling regimes in them an issue of a wasted Arab right that must be restored, but rather it has become considered a heavy burden and a source of annoyance that many of these regimes want to get rid of and remove from their shoulders.

From this perspective, the actual support of these regimes for the cause has declined, while the level of apparent and formal support has remained the same, to the point that many of them have become preoccupied with mediation between the Israeli and Palestinian sides. These regimes are now looking for a way out, and are satisfied with a political settlement that does not exceed the level of meeting the minimum requirements, and are exerting various pressures on the Palestinians to lower the ceiling of their demands, and accept the low ceiling settlement, to cover themselves with it and remove the burden and continued embarrassment from their shoulders. They want to close the file and remove the obstacle that prevents them from responding to the American demand for full and public normalization of relations with Israel.