What a Trump presidency means for the Middle East

As president, Donald Trump was a staunch supporter of Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as its capital, cutting off aid to the U.N. agency that supports Palestinian refugees and presenting a peace plan that favored Israel. Yet he has also publicly called for the war in Gaza to stop, saying in April, “Israel has to be very careful, because you’re losing a lot of the world.”

Members of Israel’s right-wing government believe that a Trump administration will allow it to end its wars in Gaza and Lebanon on favorable terms. But the president-elect’s comments about Israel’s actions in Gaza have also led some on the Palestinian side to hold out hope that Trump may be swayed, and on Friday he had a call with Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority.

We asked Patrick Kingsley, the Jerusalem bureau chief, to explain what may lie in store for the region.

Donald Trump has promised in the past to bring peace to the Middle East. With the region in tumult, how plausible is that goal?

When last in office, Donald Trump helped forge landmark diplomatic ties between Israel and three Arab countries, ties that remain intact. Once back in power, he may aim to forge a similar pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

But he will find it far harder to seal a deal between Israel and the Palestinians — without which it will be impossible to achieve lasting peace in the region. And while it’s likely that early in his tenure there will be cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon, those truces would likely have been reached under a Harris presidency, too.

What changes might we see for the relationship between Israel and the U.S.?

Many on the Israeli right hope that a Trump presidency will give them greater political cover to install Jewish settlers in Gaza, entrench Israeli control over the West Bank, overhaul the Israeli judicial system and launch bigger strikes on Iran.

But Trump is unpredictable, and his interests may not always align with Israel’s. For example, he suggested last month that he would not support regime change in Iran, a goal for some Israeli leaders.

How could Trump’s approach to the war in Gaza differ from that of the Biden administration?

Trump has said that he wants the war to end with a decisive Israeli victory. That suggests he would tolerate an even more forceful Israeli campaign than Biden. But equally, he may prove less patient with Israel if the war isn’t ended quickly.

What has Trump indicated about his vision for a postwar Gaza?

Under a peace plan proposed by Trump during his last tenure, the entirety of Gaza would have become part of a Palestinian state. But a half-decade later, the Israeli government is even less likely to accept Palestinian sovereignty, particularly after the atrocities committed by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. So Trump may ultimately prove more willing than Biden to accept Israeli civilian control over parts of the territory.

Trump’s allies and adversaries eye his next moves

Eight years after his initial victory, Donald Trump returns to the White House with revenge on his mind. He spent much of the campaign focused on exacting “retribution” for all the ways he believed he had been wronged, leaving friends and foes alike anticipating a wave of payback after he takes office again in January.

Whether he will carry out those threats is unclear. He may not go after the biggest figures, like President Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris, but allies expect him to pursue at least some of the targets he has singled out after years of multiple impeachments, investigations, indictments and lawsuits.