Dr. Muhammad Abu Koush: Trump will not provide any positive direction for the Palestinian cause, but will increase pressure towards normalization with Israel

Dr. Khader Al-Marshadi: Expect a series of transformations in global politics, such as escalating tensions with China and Iran and raising the ceiling of tensions

Osama Al-Sharif: Trump's victory in this way gave him almost complete control over the joints of government and thus the implementation of his agenda without major opposition

Aziz Al-Assa: Trump often tends towards financial solutions rather than military ones, as happened in Afghanistan, so we may witness strategic changes.

Dr. Muhammad Bou Taleb: Democrats and Republicans apply fixed policies when it comes to the Arab world and its pivotal issues

Rassem Obeidat: Trump will support Netanyahu to enable him to achieve maximum political gains and implement annexation with minimal concessions

The election of Donald Trump opened the door wide to expectations and possible scenarios for the return of an "unpredictable" man to the White House, in light of many hot foreign files that attract the attention of the United States, most notably the war of extermination waged by Israel on the Gaza Strip and transferred to the West Bank and Lebanon, as well as the Ukrainian war that has been raging for nearly three years.

However, President Trump’s previous experience and the “reckless” decisions he made do not bode well for the Palestinians. At the time, he rushed to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a step that all US presidents have refrained from implementing, despite the decision having been taken for many years. He followed this up with the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, and finally the announcement of the “Deal of the Century,” in which he presented the features of a possible settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, while making the Palestinians bear the full and exorbitant bill for this deal.

Writers, analysts and experts who spoke to “I” believe that Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States will return the world to the situation it was in during his first term, stressing that his return will have broad effects on global politics, especially Middle Eastern issues, most notably the Palestinian issue.

Returning the world to what it was in his first term

Dr. Muhammad Abu Koush, former director of the Institute of Global Studies at Al-Quds University, said: Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States will return the world to the situation it was in during his first term.

He explained that Trump's main disagreement in foreign policy will be with China, but it is primarily an economic disagreement, not a military one.

He pointed out that Trump may stop major military support for both Ukraine and Israel, which would affect the course of conflicts in those regions.

He touched on the Palestinian issue, explaining that the Biden administration had repeatedly indicated the need to make changes in the Palestinian leadership, but these calls may recede with Trump's return.

Abu Koush also pointed out that Trump will not provide any positive direction for the Palestinian cause, but will increase pressure towards normalization with Israel, as Arab leaders who are currently hesitant to establish public relations with Israel will be encouraged to move forward with normalization, amid declining interest in the Arab Peace Initiative.

Priority for Israel

“Trump’s priority will be Israel, with a return to his previous plans that strengthen its position, without a vision for a two-state solution,” Abu Koush added, expressing his doubts about helping Netanyahu annex the West Bank, as Trump does not aim to abolish the Palestinian Authority, but rather prefers its survival in a limited form.

Regarding the war in Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine, Abu Koush explained that Trump may seek to stop them, as the era of open wars is not among his priorities.

He stressed that the reason for the American voter's support for Trump is primarily due to economic issues, as Trump has a strong record in this regard, despite his hardline positions on immigration issues, which are popular with Republican Party supporters.

Abu Koush pointed out that Trump adopts socially conservative positions, especially with regard to social rights, as he strongly opposes trends supporting gay rights and gender equality, stressing Trump's traditional positions in this regard.

Broad implications for global politics

In turn, Dr. Khadir Al-Marshadi, President of the Global Institute for Arab Renewal - Iraq, said: The return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States will have broad effects on global politics, especially Middle Eastern issues, most notably the Palestinian issue.

“Based on Trump’s policies during his first term, we can conclude a number of transformations in global politics, such as the escalation of tensions with China and Iran, which may raise the ceiling of tensions. Such escalation may lead to the drawing of new global alliances, which may reflect negatively or positively on Middle East issues, the most important of which is the increased rapprochement with Israel, as Trump’s previous policies were strongly supportive of it, when he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of the occupation and moved the US embassy to it,” he added.

Al-Marshadi stressed that if he continues on this approach, he may support further steps that strengthen the Israeli position, which may reduce the chances of a two-state solution, and put more pressure on the Palestinian Authority if it does not agree to proposals in line with Trump’s vision for peace in the Middle East based on implementing the so-called deal of the century.

Expanding the Abraham Accords

Regarding the future of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Al-Marshadi explained that Trump will try to expand the so-called “Abraham Accords” to include other Arab countries, with a focus on forming a regional alliance that goes beyond the Palestinian issue, which may weaken the position of the Palestinians in any negotiations that may take place regarding the future of Palestine.

He added: "This position will push many Western countries allied with the United States of America to be affected by Trump's tough stance, which may be reflected in the balance of power in the Security Council and the United Nations."

Al-Marshadi concluded by saying: “Trump’s victory may lead to imposing more pressures and challenges on the Palestinians, and strengthen Israel’s position in American policy. He does not see any positive change in favor of the Palestinian cause, except for the possibility of a ceasefire that may be carried out according to Israeli conditions.”

Radical changes at the internal and external levels

For his part, Jordanian journalist and analyst Osama Al-Sharif said: Donald Trump's victory in the US elections came in an unprecedented manner, as the support of voters in swing states returned him to the White House, giving him almost complete control over the joints of government in the United States, including the two houses of Congress and the Supreme Court, which is controlled by Republican judges appointed by Trump.

Al-Sharif believes that this unique control may give Trump the opportunity to implement his agenda without significant opposition, which may lead to radical changes at the domestic and foreign levels.

Al-Sharif pointed out that Trump may initiate radical changes, such as changing some ministries, interfering in the personal lives of Americans, as well as attacking the media and forming alliances with far-right forces, which may raise internal tensions.

Regarding the Middle East, Al-Sharif said that there are three main issues that could be affected by Trump’s victory: First, the Gaza war, where Al-Sharif believes that Trump, who considers the war a heavy legacy of the Biden administration, may pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war before he officially takes office on January 20.

"Secondly: The deal of the century, which may not be among the top priorities in Trump's foreign policy, especially in light of the presence of other files, such as the war in Ukraine and the repercussions of the crisis in Lebanon," Al-Sharif added.

Al-Sharif explained that Netanyahu's political future is in jeopardy, as he is expected to fall after the end of the war, for reasons related to his faltering performance.

The file of normalization with Arab countries

Al-Sharif also touched on developments in the normalization file with Saudi Arabia, expecting that several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, may hesitate to approach Netanyahu, who has become "radioactively contaminated" in the eyes of many due to his failed policies.

Al-Sharif pointed to the results of the state of Michigan, which surprised everyone with Trump's superiority, given the Arab American voters' distance from Harris.

He considered that this result reflects the importance of the Arab and Muslim voice in America, and may be a prelude to more influence on domestic and foreign policies in the future.

Regarding Iran and its nuclear file, Al-Sharif said: Trump may take a tougher stance than the Biden administration, especially since he had previously canceled the nuclear agreement with Tehran during his previous presidency, and pledged not to allow it to possess nuclear weapons.

Al-Sharif believes that the new Trump administration may face a complex challenge in how to contain Iran amid escalating tensions with Israel, and ongoing conflicts in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Yemen, making the Iranian file one of the most prominent issues that may receive priority on Trump’s next agenda.

"I will end wars, not start them."

For his part, the Jerusalemite writer and researcher Aziz Al-Assa stressed the need to be patient in evaluating the next four years of American policies, especially in light of the slogan raised by presidential candidate Donald Trump, “I will end wars... not start them.”

Al-Assa explained that Trump, as a businessman, often tends to favor financial solutions rather than military ones, as was evident in his decision to end the US presence in Afghanistan at the end of his previous presidential term. Therefore, we may witness strategic changes focused on world peace, including sensitive issues such as the conflict in Ukraine and relations with Iran.

As for the Palestinian issue, Al-Assa believes that the prospects for peace seem worrying, as Trump is the author of the “Deal of the Century,” which seeks to subject the entire region to the will of the Israeli right and expand the scope of the “Abrahamic religion,” which was promoted to the region with the aim of making the Arab peoples understand the existence of Israel as a neighboring state that must be dealt with.

Al-Assa pointed to Trump's previous statements about "expanding the borders of the State of Israel," which could mean increasing American pressure on the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, and bringing these areas within the scope of Israeli control, whether directly or indirectly.

Al-Assa added: "There are fears of the possibility of annexing the West Bank to full Israeli sovereignty, in continuation of Trump's previous steps, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem."

However, the stick does not rule out other scenarios, in which Trump may seriously embrace the “two-state solution,” which could lead to changes in the current Israeli leadership toward a more moderate approach.

Al-Assa concluded by saying: "Until then, we must be vigilant and not rush to judgment."

There is no fundamental difference between Trump and the Democrats.

Tunisian writer and political sociologist Dr. Mohamed Najib Boutaleb believes that the potential scenario of former President Donald Trump returning to the White House does not bear a fundamental difference from any Democratic president assuming the presidency. Experience has proven, in his opinion, that Democrats and Republicans implement consistent policies when it comes to the Arab world and its pivotal issues. These policies, in essence, according to Boutaleb, express a “hardline system” based on political and economic foundations that primarily serve American interests, far from considerations of justice.

In the context of the US elections, Bou Taleb described the competition between the Republican and Democratic parties as a “formal play” that aims to monopolize the dual system that refuses to introduce new or different political alternatives, stressing that this political scene is extremely conservative and largely aggressive.

Bou Taleb clearly criticized the bets of some Arab countries on the possibility of a change in US policies towards Arab issues, considering this a bet on a mirage, and calling for freeing Arab action from complete dependence on Washington’s decisions.

Bou Taleb called on Arabs and Palestinians to focus on building their own capabilities, unifying their ranks, and arranging their priorities by rebuilding the Palestine Liberation Organization and activating the role of the Arab League, despite the existing challenges.

He also criticized the state of "surrender" shown by some Arab regimes by giving the United States and Israel the reins of decision-making, and saw this trend as a threat to independence and sovereignty, as it serves the "New Middle East" project that seeks to fragment and divide the region and control its resources.

The Palestinian people have changed the Israeli equation.

Bou Taleb pointed out that the Palestinian people have brought about a radical change in the Israeli equation, especially since October 7, 2023, as the confrontation proved that the Israeli occupation no longer has the same ability to impose its will as it did in the past, and that the Palestinians have begun to change this reality with their blood, which gave Israel for the first time a sense of a real threat to its existence.

Bou Taleb pointed out several main conclusions from this scene, including: that the occupation only understands the language of force, explaining that the use of force by the Palestinians provided an opportunity to reshape the scene, proving that peaceful means have not succeeded so far.

He added: The American ally of the occupation, as America, as a major ally of Israel, continues to exert pressure on Arab countries to support the occupation, which prompts those countries to rethink their regional and international options and alliances.

He stressed the importance of resistance and its tools, as achieving freedom and sovereignty requires adopting resistance tools. He also called on the Palestinians to reconsider their plans and alliances.

Bou Taleb expected that the effects of the Palestinian resistance would extend over the coming generations, as the younger generations witness the tragedies that the Palestinian people are exposed to, which increases the possibility of their involvement in future resistance movements.

He said: "The Jewish generations preparing to immigrate to Israel will face demographic problems that could hinder the stability of the country."

Bou Taleb believes that the entire world is in dire need of changing the prevailing values and systems, pointing out that the West itself, which has always raised the slogan of democracy, is now suffering from the fragility of the values it promotes.

Characters who may have roles in the Trump era

In turn, Jerusalemite writer Rasem Obeidat confirmed that US President-elect Donald Trump will provide unlimited support to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the aim of enabling him to achieve maximum political gains with the least amount of concessions.

Obaidat explained that there are a number of figures that Israel hopes will hold prominent positions in the Trump government, most notably Mike Pompeo, who led a project to weaken Lebanon from within through a five-year plan that includes imposing an economic and financial blockade, and creating a political and security vacuum, with the aim of igniting sectarian strife that paves the way for civil war, disarming Hezbollah and the resistance, and reducing its presence in the Lebanese state, institutions, and society.

Obaidat also noted that David Friedman, who was the US ambassador to Israel and has previously called for Israeli sovereignty over settlements in the West Bank, may have a key role in supporting religious Zionism's plans to annex the West Bank.

Obeidat stressed the importance of reminding Friedman of his previous actions, where he participated alongside Israeli ministers in the opening of a tunnel extending from Ein Silwan to Al-Aqsa Mosque, in a symbolic move that sparked controversy, using a sledgehammer.