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ARAB AND WORLD

Sat 08 Jun 2024 4:04 pm - Jerusalem Time

How is Biden pressuring Netanyahu?

Politico magazine noted on Friday President Joe Biden's unlimited support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since he launched his war on Gaza, "to the point that observers described Biden's approach as a bear hug," according to the magazine.


The president and his aides are working to ensure that Netanyahu feels pressure from all sides to end the war quickly. “Biden has become more aggressive himself (toward Netanyahu), pushing rhetorically and behind the scenes to increase pressure from regional powers, the United Nations, aid organizations, Israeli citizens, and Netanyahu’s political allies and enemies alike.”


There is a fear among many American officials and others caught up in the crisis that this is the last best chance to return the hostages held by Hamas to their families and end the war without further casualties. In many ways, the Biden team is going beyond its previous efforts to persuade Netanyahu to act on US advice, turning to a greater number of people and institutions than usual so that the Israeli prime minister feels increasing pressure.


Of course, the pressure campaign also targets Hamas, but Netanyahu is in some ways the more complex decision-maker, and the one whom the United States has more power to directly influence.


“The Israeli leader is facing pressure from within his own government to abandon the ceasefire plan. Depending on what he does, he could lose his job and possibly end up in prison. Such consequences make it difficult for him to simply agree to American pleas to support the deal, even though they “Technically, it is primarily an Israeli proposal,” according to the magazine.


The newspaper quotes Adam Ereli, the former US ambassador to Bahrain, as saying: “Netanyahu is now trapped in his own web of political maneuvering between his coalition partners, the Americans and his security establishment.” He added, "He (Netanyahu) has made promises to everyone, but he cannot fully fulfill them to anyone."


Biden's decision to deliver a speech on Friday (5/31/2024) outlining the Israeli proposal was just the first public step in the US effort, although Israel received a heads-up about the speech. The US President presented a multi-stage plan that he said Israeli negotiators had proposed as a means to end the fighting permanently. There is hope among American officials that Hamas and Israel can at least agree on the first phase, which will include a temporary ceasefire and the release of some Palestinian hostages and prisoners.


Since then, US officials, such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have made phone calls and spoken with counterparts in countries such as Egypt, Morocco and Qatar who can put pressure on Netanyahu but also on Hamas, according to the State Department, which issued readings, as US officials do not deal directly with... Hamas because the United States has classified it as a “terrorist organization.”


Blinken also held phone calls with two key members of Netanyahu's war cabinet: Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Benny Gantz. Both are dissatisfied with the way Netanyahu is handling the war effort.


Gantz will likely withdraw from the coalition on Saturday, a departure that will not necessarily lead to the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition. But if two more ministers leave, it could happen.


These two ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, oppose the ceasefire plan, complaining that it will leave Hamas in power. The couple are right-wing figures with strongly anti-Palestinian views and want Israel to take full control of the Gaza Strip.


It is true that Netanyahu is not very popular in Israel, but if he loses the prime ministership, he may become more vulnerable on the legal front. He faces numerous corruption charges in Israeli courts.


Aware of all this, the Israeli leader, often through his aides, has sent mixed signals about what he actually believes when it comes to the ceasefire proposal put forward by his country's negotiators. Statements, such as those that Israel remains committed to “destroying Hamas’ military and governmental capabilities,” have muddied the situation.


Biden and his senior aides often prefer to emphasize that the responsibility falls on Hamas to agree to the proposal.


The White House National Security Advisor said: “The Israeli government has repeatedly confirmed, until today, that this proposal is still on the table, and it is now up to Hamas to accept it, and the whole world must call on Hamas to accept it.” Jake Sullivan said Wednesday (6/5) on NBC's "Today" show.


Some former American officials say that hard-line Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar may be a harder target to convince Netanyahu. The activist, who may be hiding in Gaza, has witnessed the turmoil the war has caused within American politics, including on American college campuses, as well as how it has made Israel the subject of much international scorn.


Biden also did not speak with Netanyahu last week, but that may be because he is saving that tactic for a later stage.


Meanwhile, CIA Director William Burns and National Security Council Middle East official Brett McGurk returned to the region this week to talk with partners about ways to move the deal forward.


The Biden administration has also reached out to aid groups working in Gaza to try to gain their support for the proposal. They briefed the groups on the plan and discussed options for protecting their staff on the ground once a final agreement was reached.


Leaders of the Group of Seven nations - which includes the United States and other major democracies - issued a joint statement on Monday endorsing the ceasefire proposal. The United States, Egypt and Qatar issued a similar statement on Saturday.


The United States is even turning to the United Nations Security Council in an attempt to gain further support for the plan through a resolution.


While Biden notes in various forums the need to end the suffering of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, he also has political interests in seeing the war end. His strong support for Israel has angered many Arab Americans, whose votes could be crucial in swing states like Michigan during the November presidential election.


Biden has had a strong relationship with Netanyahu for decades, but this relationship took a turn for the worse as the war continued. But President Biden has so far resisted calls to impose broad restrictions on US military aid to Israel, although he has held back some weapons.


In an interview with Time magazine published this week, which appeared to have been conducted before his speech on Friday, Biden was asked whether Netanyahu was prolonging the war to stay in power.


He did not comment directly, but said: "There is every reason for people to come to that conclusion."

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How is Biden pressuring Netanyahu?

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