The New York Times reported Thursday that while Hamas and the Israeli government appear to be close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, analysts are highly skeptical that the two sides will implement an agreement beyond a temporary truce.

“This is a three-stage agreement proposed by Israel and supported by the United States and some Arab countries, which, if fully achieved, could ultimately lead to a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the return of all remaining hostages who were captured on October 7, and a plan to reconstruct the Strip.” According to the newspaper.

But reaching the finish line, according to analysts, is impossible if the parties are not even ready to start the race or agree on where it should end. Fundamentally, the debate is not only about how long the Gaza ceasefire should last or at what point it should be implemented, but rather about whether Israel can accept a long-term truce as long as Hamas maintains a significant degree of control.

In order for Israel to agree to Hamas's demands for a permanent ceasefire from the beginning, "it must recognize that Hamas will remain undestructed and that it will play a role in the future of the Strip, which are conditions that the Israeli government cannot adhere to." On the other hand, Hamas says It will not consider a temporary ceasefire without guarantees of a permanent ceasefire that effectively guarantees its survival,” according to the newspaper.

But after eight months of brutal war, there are signs that the two sides may be moving closer to the proposed first phase: a six-week conditional ceasefire. Analysts said that while this step is not guaranteed, reaching the second phase of the plan, which stipulates a permanent cessation of hostilities and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, is unlikely.

The newspaper quotes researcher Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, who is of Israeli origin, as saying: “It is a mistake to view this proposal as more than just a temporary solution. More importantly, this plan does not answer the basic question.” About who will rule Gaza after the conflict. This is a plan for a ceasefire, not a plan for the next day.”

Hamas leaders and the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are considering what the deal will mean not only for the future of the war, but for their political future. In order to gain support from skeptical partners for the first phase of the plan, Mr. Netanyahu is particularly incentivized to keep his commitments to the final stages vague.

According to the newspaper, there are influential figures in each camp who want to prolong the war. Some within Hamas say the group, which is dominated by those still in Gaza, such as local leader Yahya Sinwar, should not agree to any deal that does not immediately lead to a permanent ceasefire. In Israel, the mere mention of stopping the war and complete withdrawal of forces prompted Netanyahu's far-right allies to threaten to topple his government.

It is noteworthy that in a press conference held on Tuesday, Osama Hamdan, spokesman for Hamas, said that the movement will not agree to an agreement that does not begin with a promise of a permanent ceasefire and includes provisions related to the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces and “a serious solution and a real deal” to exchange the remaining hostages for a number of hostages. Much larger than the Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

According to Shlomo Brom, retired brigadier general and senior researcher at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, “It is clear to everyone that this proposal is mostly political; the first phase is good for Netanyahu, because some hostages will be released, but he will never reach the second phase. Before, he will find something wrong with what Hamas is doing, which will not be difficult to find.”

More than 100 hostages were released under a limited deal at the end of last November, which lasted for about a week.

There is no guarantee this time either that the first phase will be followed by the second phase. Analysts agree that this may suit Netanyahu well, as he works to calm the Americans through a temporary ceasefire and increased aid to Gaza while finding reasons not to go beyond this agreement.

Analysts say Netanyahu hopes Hamas will not agree to the proposal at all, thus keeping him out of this impasse. As hostilities with Hezbollah intensify in the north, he is suggesting to his allies that even if he agrees to the Gaza proposal, negotiations in the second phase could continue indefinitely.

President Biden, who laid out the plan from the White House last week, has his own political considerations in getting the two sides to agree, sooner rather than later. According to Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment, it is clear that he wants to stop the Gaza war long before the presidential elections next November, adding that “the only party that is really in a hurry is Biden,” so Biden is putting pressure on both Netanyahu and Netanyahu. And enthusiasm to accept the agreement quickly.

With the arrival of Israeli forces to the Egyptian border and the end of the main operations in the war, President Biden said that Hamas is no longer able to carry out another attack similar to the October 7 attack, and is pushing Netanyahu to publicly accept his proposal.

According to the newspaper, “Netanyahu did his best to confuse everyone about his intentions, as he denied that his goal of dismantling Hamas had changed, and refused to support a permanent end to the fighting, which he described on Sunday as unacceptable.”

Biden also stressed that Hamas “must accept the agreement,” which it did not, saying only that it viewed the proposal “positively.”

It is noteworthy that the proposal put forward by Biden consists of three stages: In the first stage, the two sides will adhere to a ceasefire for a period of six weeks. Israel will withdraw from the main population centers in Gaza and a number of hostages will be released, including women, the elderly and the wounded. The hostages will be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees, and their names have not yet been negotiated. Aid will begin flowing into Gaza, with up to 600 trucks per day. Displaced Palestinian civilians will be allowed to return to their homes in northern Gaza.

During the first phase, Israel and Hamas continue to negotiate in order to reach the second phase: a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza, and the release of all remaining living hostages. Biden said that if the talks take more than six weeks, the first phase of the truce will continue until an agreement is reached.

Israeli officials, from Netanyahu on down, insist that Israel must retain security control over Gaza in the future, making it highly unlikely that they will agree to completely withdraw Israeli forces from the buffer zone they have built inside Gaza. Even if they did, Israel would insist on the ability to move in and out of Gaza whenever it deemed necessary to fight the remnants of or re-established Hamas or other fighters, as it now does in the West Bank.