For many decades, the relationship between the United States and Israel seemed to be one of the rare constants in international politics. American support for Israel was not merely a fleeting government policy; it became part of the prevailing political culture in Washington and an issue enjoying broad bipartisan consensus between the Republican and Democratic parties. But the question that is now forcefully asserting itself is: Can the current course of events lead to an outcome Israel never imagined, namely the erosion of American sympathy for it, and perhaps even the escalation of manifestations of antisemitism within American society itself?
This question may seem shocking, but it is no longer a political taboo as it once was. The American scene is witnessing profound changes that extend beyond foreign policy to the very structure of society. Millions of young Americans who did not experience the Cold War or the memory of the European Holocaust view the conflict in the Middle East from a completely different perspective than previous generations. For them, Israel is no longer always seen as the "small besieged state"; rather, it is often presented in many discussions as a military and regional power with overwhelming superiority.
With the expansion of social media and the flow of images and information outside traditional channels, Israel has begun to face an increasing challenge in the arena of global public opinion. The narrative that enjoyed a strong presence in Western media for decades no longer receives the same acceptance among broad segments of the public, especially among younger generations. It has become clear that the battle is no longer just about facts on the ground, but about the ability to convince public opinion of the legitimacy of positions and policies.
Some observers believe that this relative decline in the power of the Israeli narrative has contributed to pushing Israel and its supporting organizations to focus more on official and institutional levels. The more difficult the battle for public opinion becomes, the greater the reliance on political, legal, and diplomatic tools of influence to maintain traditional support within Western countries.
In this context, intensive efforts have emerged in recent years to expand the adoption of official definitions, legislation, and policies related to antisemitism within parliaments, universities, and government institutions in a number of influential countries. Supporters of these efforts consider them a necessary response to the increasing incidents of anti-Jewish sentiment and the emergence of new forms of hatred that sometimes hide behind political discourse.
However, critics of this approach believe that the problem begins when the line between antisemitism and criticism of Israel becomes less clear. The more the scope of official definitions is expanded to include certain forms of criticism directed at Israel, the more segments of public opinion feel that political debate is subject to exceptional restrictions not imposed on other international issues.
A striking paradox emerges here; while these policies aim to protect Jews from hatred, some researchers fear that linking Israel to legal and political systems that regulate freedom of expression could lead to counterproductive results. This is because some circles might get the impression that Israel, having lost part of the battle for popular persuasion, is increasingly relying on institutional and legal power to compensate for the decline of its influence in public opinion.
This debate cannot be separated from the internal American dimension. For decades, pro-Israel lobbying groups have played an influential role in American political life, foremost among them AIPAC, which has succeeded in building a wide network of relationships within Congress and decision-making centers. While its supporters see it as playing a legitimate role within the American democratic system, its critics consider it an example of the influence of lobbying groups capable of affecting public policies.
The issue becomes more sensitive when the discussion extends to American Jews themselves. Jews have achieved remarkable successes in the fields of economics, finance, technology, science, and culture, and have made a significant contribution to building the economic and intellectual power of the United States. However, periods of political polarization often push some populist voices to turn this success into material for generalizations and collective accusations, a path that many societies have known throughout history and whose results have always been dangerous.
Here lies the greatest paradox. The more intense the debate about Israel, the influence of lobbying groups, and legislation related to antisemitism, the greater the likelihood that the discussion will shift from criticizing a state and its policies to targeting Jews as a religious or cultural group. At this point, the danger is directed not only at Israel but at the very social fabric of American society.
But the question that arises today is not whether Israel can still maintain the support of Western governments, but whether it can maintain the support of Western societies themselves. There is a fundamental difference between influence within institutions and acceptance within public opinion, and between winning in the corridors of politics and winning hearts and minds.
For decades, Israel succeeded in combining both: official support and popular sympathy. Today, however, the equation seems to be changing. The more its ability to convince broad segments of public opinion declines, the more it relies on political allies, lobbying groups, legislation, and official institutions to maintain its traditional position in the West.
However, political history teaches us that sustainable legitimacy is not built by laws alone, nor is it preserved by government decisions only. When the gap begins to widen between what institutions support and what people believe, any political power becomes susceptible to a gradual loss of its moral capital, no matter how great its official influence.
Hence the paradox that Israel may face in the coming years. While efforts to expand definitions of antisemitism and surround Israel with more political and legal protection aim to fortify its position in the West, they may be viewed by some segments of public opinion as evidence that the Israeli narrative is no longer able to assert itself with the power of persuasion it once possessed.
And the greatest danger may be that this path, over time, leads to results completely contrary to its stated goal. The more a part of public opinion feels that a particular political issue enjoys exceptional protection or different treatment, the greater the likelihood of angry reactions arising that go beyond criticizing policies to turn into hostile attitudes towards the groups associated with them. At this point, the danger is no longer limited to Israel's image but extends to Jews in the West and to social cohesion within democratic societies themselves.
Therefore, the real question is not whether Israel is losing the battle for public opinion today, but whether it realizes that increasing reliance on institutional influence to compensate for popular decline may carry within it the seeds of a greater crisis in the future. History has often shown that winning over governments is easier than winning over people, but losing the people is the loss that is difficult to compensate for.