What will we do the day after the war? The millionaire question in Israel

By Kifah Zaboun

Netanyahu proposed security control over the Gaza Strip in the absence of an “exit strategy”... and no vision of civilian rule.

The million-dollar question in Israel that remained unanswered since the long 2014 war on the Gaza Strip was about the “day after” taking control of the Strip: What will we do on the second day? We stay there? Do we occupy the sector again? Bring back the Palestinian Authority? Or do we leave and risk Hamas regaining its power again?

These were the set of questions that were raised in the mini-security and political council, “the cabinet,” and were addressed by intellectuals, journalists, writers, security personnel, retirees, and an army of intelligence, Mossad, and Shin Bet, but they remained unanswered questions.

Today, after 9 years, Israel finds itself forced to fight in the heart of Gaza under the slogan of overthrowing the rule of “Hamas” and destroying it, but the issue of “the day after” toppling the movement’s rule is still troubling, assuming that the Israelis will succeed in this mission.

Security control without clear answers

After a month of fierce war against the Palestinians, and great American pressure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would assume “comprehensive security responsibility” in the Gaza Strip for an “indefinite period” after the end of the war against Hamas.

“I believe that Israel will assume comprehensive security responsibility for an indefinite period because we have seen what happens when we do not assume it,” Netanyahu told ABC News. “When we do not assume that security responsibility, what we have is an outbreak of (Hamas) terrorism on a scale that we could not have imagined.”

Although this is the first time that Netanyahu has spoken about Israel’s vision for the day after “Hamas,” it is not clear what the Israeli Prime Minister means regarding the extent of security responsibility, and does this mean that they want to occupy the Gaza Strip, or occupy part of it in the north and impose A security strip in which Israeli forces will remain for some time, or it speaks of continuing operations as necessary after the comprehensive withdrawal.

Israeli officials say that they do not want to occupy the Strip, and the administration of US President Joe Biden has expressed its opposition to this scenario as well. What does Netanyahu mean?

Amir Tibon said, in the Haaretz newspaper, that there is no exit plan (from the current crisis) and that American officials are concerned about the lack of an exit strategy. He added that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken asked members of the Israeli government about this during his recent visit, but his (the US Secretary’s) impression from the Israeli responses was that “the matter was not raised for discussion explicitly.”

The official Israeli broadcaster, Kan, confirmed that Netanyahu's government had begun drawing broad outlines for the day following the end of the war, and the nature and form of security control over the Gaza Strip. She added that this began under constant American pressure to take a decision on this issue.

Israeli sources said that the Israeli government is trying to postpone the discussion regarding the expected steps, but they are currently setting several broad guidelines, including security control over the Gaza Strip. Kan said that the steps being taken are expected to have military, political and economic impacts.

While Minister Benny Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Galant support extending future security control over the Gaza Strip, a security official doubted this and said: “He believes that Israel will not have a supreme security responsibility in Gaza.”

It is clear that Netanyahu does not have other details, including civilian rule there.

Civil rule is in whose hands?

During the past 30 days, Israeli officials have proposed several scenarios, including changing the face of Gaza, reducing its area, establishing an international governing body, sending peacekeeping forces, or returning the Palestinian Authority.

At a time when American officials confirmed that discussions were continuing after Secretary of State Anthony Blinken presented ideas to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid believed that the Palestinian Authority was the only party capable of assuming control of the Gaza Strip after achieving victory over Hamas. “, as he described it.

Lapid believed that control over the city should belong to the authority, while security control in the coming period would be in the hands of the Israeli army.

Why do Blinken and Lapid propose civilian control of power?

Lapid himself answers that Israel is not interested in funding the education of Gaza's children or the Strip's hospitals. He says: “Any future occupation of the Gaza Strip means that Israel will be responsible for education and hospitals. “Israel does not want that.”

It is known that any force occupying a people will be responsible for their daily lives, including education, health, municipal affairs, and others.

However, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak does not support Israeli security control, as he explained in statements to Politico newspaper that a multinational Arab force may have to control Gaza after eliminating Hamas.

It does not seem that the return of authority administratively is possible, not even as security forces. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas stressed that assuming a role in Gaza depends on a political solution.

Abbas’s position on the issue of governing the Gaza Strip is old and has not changed and is based on two issues. The first is that the Authority will not return on the back of an Israeli tank to the Strip, and the other is that the Authority imposing its control over the Strip is a purely Palestinian issue, and must be done within the framework that Gaza is part of the future Palestinian state. Thus, within a clear path to establishing the state.

Most importantly, the PA leaders believe that after being weakened and marginalized and the Netanyahu government working for years to strengthen Hamas in Gaza and foster division, Israel “must go to hell now when it thinks that the PA has to come and save it in Gaza,” Palestinian officials say. .

The General Political Commissioner, Major General Talal Dweikat, spokesman for the Palestinian security services, said: “President Mahmoud Abbas was unequivocally clear in his position with the US Secretary of State, which is his rejection of any security project that the United States and Israel wish to implement if it goes beyond the political solution.”

What about “Hamas”?

As for Hamas, the movement does not believe that any external force can remove it from the Gaza Strip, but it nevertheless realizes that its rule is at stake there.

It is most likely that the initiative launched by the leader of the movement, Ismail Haniyeh, in order to stop the war and launch a political path, is an important indicator of its readiness to engage in a path that it is known that the Palestine Liberation Organization will lead.

It is true that “Hamas” threatened from Beirut through its leader Osama Hamdan that it would not welcome it, but rather hinted that it would fight a “new Vichy government” (referring to the government that cooperated with the Nazi occupation in France during World War II), or whoever comes as an agent on the An Israeli or American tank, but if there is a broad national agreement to return things to what they were before the movement took control of Gaza in 2007, this may represent the least losses for Hamas, especially in light of America and Israel’s assertion that it is not possible to return to The situation before October 7, the date Hamas launched its “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation.

In light of all these scenarios and options, there is no doubt that the course of the field war will ultimately guide the compass.