The future of Gaza

“Gaza is a death trap,” “the most dangerous place in the world,” “a place no one wants to live in,” and if you take the Palestinians and move them to different countries, you’ll find plenty of countries that will do the same… “You’ll have a free zone,” Trump.

It is clear that war criminal Netanyahu's strategy of destroying Hamas and displacing the population of Gaza is doomed to failure, as nothing has changed in the past eighteen months. Tamir Hayman, executive director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), former head of military intelligence, and one of Israel's most respected analysts, confirms this failure: "Hamas continues to maintain its sovereignty in the Strip."

Coinciding with Netanyahu's second visit to Washington, Hamas fired ten rockets at the cities of Ashkelon and Ashdod, the largest barrage since the resumption of the genocide. This was a clear indication that Hamas had not been defeated, thus refuting Netanyahu's narrative of "absolute victory."

Intelligence reports indicate that weapons continue to flow to Hamas from Sinai and within the occupied Palestinian territories, via smuggling by Bedouins crossing the border, who have found this to be a lucrative business. For example, Hamas recently acquired ten drones worth $1 million, which it modified to carry 70 kilograms of explosives, but they have not yet been used.

Politically, a Hamas delegation is expected to visit Cairo to discuss the new Egyptian proposal, which stipulates a ceasefire of 40 to 70 days in exchange for the release of eight Israeli detainees out of an estimated 59 held by the movement, along with an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners held by the occupation. This anticipated visit was preceded by a Fatah delegation's visit to Cairo, in an attempt by the movement to assume control of Gaza after the war and persuade Hamas to disarm and withdraw its leaders from the Strip.

In contrast to this plan, an alternative initiative is emerging to form a civil administration of Palestinian businessmen and technocrats to manage the Gaza Strip after the war. This initiative is being pushed by some Arab countries, which are pressing for this direction. The name of Mohammed Dahlan has resurfaced as a potential candidate to head this administrative authority. It is likely that the Palestinian Authority has tacitly agreed to this scenario, especially after its president, Mahmoud Abbas, issued a general amnesty for all dissident Fatah members, including Dahlan.

This scenario also seems acceptable to the United States. Although its president continues to talk about displacing Gaza's residents and turning it into a "Riviera" under American control, for the first time, he publicly raised the idea of deploying international peacekeeping forces there. This was during Netanyahu's visit, indicating that he rejects the entity's occupation of Gaza, as promoted by politicians there. Behind closed doors, he informed Netanyahu of the need to end the massacre, emphasizing that the deadline he had given him had expired. The US president has issues he considers a priority, most notably the Iranian issue and the economic war it has sparked. He also plans to visit his allies in the Gulf states, knowing that the continuation of the genocide will be met with a clear consensus on the demand to stop it, which could spoil the celebratory atmosphere he is seeking.

In an attempt to promote the deportation idea, Netanyahu announced from the White House that countries had agreed to accept Gaza residents. Somaliland, the likely frontrunner, quickly denied the claim, asserting that it would not accept anyone.

In contrast, research centers and leading analysts agree that Hamas will remain in Gaza, and that a military solution will not succeed in removing it, as Netanyahu promotes. It is an ideological movement that cannot be resolved through battle.

Therefore, the most likely scenario for Gaza's future appears to be the formation of a civil administration of Palestinian technocrats unaffiliated with Hamas, headed by Mohammed Dahlan, with the presence of international peacekeeping forces. This would end the scenario of forced displacement of the Strip's residents, even if the door were opened voluntarily to those who wished to leave. Hamas would remain a reality to be dealt with later, and quietly.