"So Trump Doesn't Make Obama's Mistakes"

By Yaakov Nagal

In his article published in Maariv under the title "So Trump Doesn't Make Obama's Mistakes," reserve brigadier general and strategic affairs expert Yaakov Nagal strongly warns US President Donald Trump against entering into new nuclear negotiations with Iran without requiring a comprehensive and complete dismantling of its nuclear program infrastructure.

Nagal believes that Netanyahu's recent visit to Washington took place amidst the potential for disagreements between him and Trump, most notably the nuclear agreement with Tehran, which, in the author's view, poses the most serious threat.

Nagal specifically criticizes Trump's announcement of his intention to enter into direct and rapid negotiations with Iran before resorting to "other options." He believes this approach recalls the steps taken by President Obama in 2012-2013, which later led to the signing of the nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement that Nagal considers disastrous.

He points out that the Obama administration began with valid demands based on Security Council resolutions, but ended with an agreement that granted Iran a shortcut to developing a nuclear weapon and hundreds of billions in sanctions relief.

Yaacov Nagal emphasizes that any attempt to improve the previous agreement without completely dismantling the Iranian nuclear project infrastructure is a sure recipe for another catastrophe. He lists three main pillars that must be eliminated beforehand: the production of fissile material, the development of a nuclear weapons system, and the development of delivery vehicles.

He believes that Iran must destroy its stockpile of enriched uranium, shut down its enrichment facilities, and completely cease the development of nuclear warheads and long-range missiles, all under strict American supervision, before entering into any negotiating process.

Nagal believes that the Iranians will again attempt, as in the past, to drag out negotiations without actually implementing any concessions, with the aim of lifting sanctions, buying time, and even preventing Israel from launching military attacks against their facilities.

In this context, the author emphasizes that Israel must prepare for a large-scale military action against the Iranian nuclear program, preferably in cooperation with the United States. However, he also insists that Israel must be prepared to act alone if necessary.

The author warns that focusing solely on destroying enrichment facilities such as Natanz and Fordo without first addressing the development of nuclear weapons and the existing stockpile of enriched uranium will render any strike ineffective. Iran may possess the ability to manufacture a nuclear bomb in small, secret facilities even after the bombing, and may even demand "international legitimacy" in response to the strikes.

In the conclusion of his article, Yaakov Negal asserts that the era of diplomacy is over due to Iran's behavior and repeated violations of agreements, and that Trump absolutely does not want to be compared to Obama on this issue. He emphasizes that the lesson to be learned from the experience of 2015 is that mere good intentions are not enough, and that there can be no negotiations before the Iranian nuclear program is completely dismantled.