Iran and Changing Its Military and Nuclear Doctrine

With the start of Operation Protective Edge on October 7, 2023, attacks launched by Hezbollah and Ansar Allah—two key components of the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance" against Israel in support of the Gaza Strip—made Iran a target for Israel, Western countries, and the United States.

Although Iran claims that the decision to launch attacks on Israel by Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, and the Popular Mobilization Forces was made by those same groups, Israel and the United States have issued statements holding Tehran responsible for the military actions of these groups.

On the one hand, Iran denied responsibility for the military operations carried out by the Axis of Resistance factions. On the other hand, it sought to prevent the formation of an environment that could drag it into war by utilizing its powerful influence over these factions.

However, the military activities carried out by the axis factions against Israel, including the latter's targeting of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, Tehran, its subsequent missile strikes on Iranian territory for the first time, and the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, have all led to an escalation in the likelihood of a joint US-Israeli military attack against Iran.

For its part, Washington, which maintains numerous military bases, aircraft, and warships in the region, recently deployed B-2 Spirit strategic bombers to Diego Garcia, a base in the Indian Ocean.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasized that he will never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons, and he continued to make statements about a military attack even after negotiations between Iran and the United States were announced in Oman, saying: "If military intervention is necessary, we will intervene militarily. Obviously, Israel will be part of that, but we are the ones leading that process; no one can lead us. We do what we want."

The escalation that began on October 7, 2023, has raised two questions: "Will there be military intervention against Iran?" and "Will Iran change its military doctrine?"

Iran's military doctrine

Iran's military doctrine is based on Ayatollah Khomeini's classification of the world into three categories after the 1979 Islamic Revolution: Muslims influenced by Iran, the socialist world influenced by the Soviet Union, and the capitalist world influenced by the United States.

Within this framework, Ayatollah Khomeini classified countries according to the concept of enemy in Iranian military doctrine as follows:

The ultimate enemy: the United States and Israel.

Enemy states allied with the United States and Israel.

Internal enemies within Iran, such as the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization, the Ahvaz Movement, and the Army of Justice, who oppose the Iranian Revolution.

Therefore, Iran's military doctrine has a multi-level structure encompassing both internal and external forces. The IRGC was organized and structured in accordance with the principles laid down by Ayatollah Khomeini.

Iran's military doctrine does not focus on "offense," but rather on "defense." It considers the protection of Iranian territory to be based on preventing threats outside Iranian territory without the need for an attack. For this reason, the "Axis of Resistance Project" was established as part of Iran's military doctrine to protect Iranian territory from abroad.

In this context, armed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and combat groups such as the Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun Divisions, which carried out military operations in Syria prior to December 8, 2024, are considered part of Iran's defensive military doctrine.

In this regard, the IRGC's military unit, dubbed the "Ramadan Headquarters," was established on April 30, 1983, and later became known as the "Quds Force." Its primary mission was to ensure Iran's security by establishing militia formations outside Iranian territory and carrying out both overt and covert military and intelligence activities.

However, the significant damage to these formations of the "Axis of Resistance," which are considered part of Iran's military doctrine, after the Al-Aqsa Intifada, demonstrates that Iran's defense line outside its territory has been severely damaged.

Iranian military maneuvers from the perspective of military doctrine

Israel's direct missile attacks on Iranian territory in October 2024 and Trump's re-election did not change Tehran's military doctrine, but they did cause a shift in its perception of the military threat it faces.

Israel's direct missile strike on Iran, and the strong possibility that Trump would opt for conventional military intervention, have prompted the Iranian administration to conduct intensive military maneuvers to ensure the country's security.

In Iran's first exercise, scenarios focused on protecting the Natanz, Hondab, and Fordow nuclear facilities from air attacks were implemented, including testing air defense capabilities.

In conjunction with the air exercises, exercises were conducted in the fields of cybersecurity, electronic warfare, special forces, and counterterrorism.

In this context, it is noteworthy that the maneuvers focused on coordinating the capabilities of air defense systems, cybersecurity, and electronic warfare, as well as ground forces and air assets, to counter potential air attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities, energy facilities, and military installations.

It was also noted that the special forces and counterterrorism exercises held in Kermanshah included elements of ground combat aviation, commando units, and airborne units. It is also noteworthy that measures aimed at countering the potential terrorist threat from Iran's borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan were at the forefront of these exercises.

During the maneuvers, an intelligence vessel joined the naval forces from the Zagros shipyard, underground naval missile bases of the Revolutionary Guards Navy were also displayed, and missile systems supported by artificial intelligence were tested by the naval forces.

Overall, the series of extensive military maneuvers conducted by Iran following the Israeli missile attack indicate a shift in threat perception, but they do not demonstrate an update to its defense-based military doctrine.

Iran's nuclear doctrine

Iran's nuclear doctrine is shaped by a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Khamenei, which categorically prohibits the production, supply, or stockpiling of any type of weapons of mass destruction.

Although Iran, according to Ayatollah Khamenei's fatwa, categorically rejects the possession of nuclear weapons, this does not mean that Tehran does not harbor ambitions to acquire them. Possessing a nuclear weapon can serve as a deterrent against attacks, but it can also make the country a target for attacks.

Although the security situation in the region in recent years has created an environment that could push Iran to change its nuclear doctrine, this is not a sufficient reason in and of itself.

At a time of increasing instability in the region from a security perspective, Iran has begun issuing conflicting statements regarding nuclear weapons.

In his most recent speech, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, did not change his traditional position on the matter, declaring that "Iran does not seek to possess nuclear weapons." However, his senior advisor and special representative, Ali Larijani, said that "continued US military pressure may push the Iranian people to pressure the government to possess nuclear weapons," indicating a possible change in the nuclear doctrine. He also stated: "If an existential threat arises, Iran will change its nuclear doctrine. We have the capability to produce weapons, and we have no problem with that."

On the other hand, US intelligence reports support Ayatollah Khamenei's repeated statements emphasizing that "Iran possesses the knowledge and capability to produce a nuclear weapon." The 2007 US intelligence assessment also confirmed that Iran, should it decide to do so, possesses the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to produce a nuclear weapon.

In other words, although Iran has long been known to be on the “nuclear threshold” and possesses significant nuclear technology, it has not yet chosen to acquire a nuclear weapon.

This means that a country's possession of the knowledge and technology necessary to produce nuclear weapons is not sufficient alone. Rather, the formation of a political will supported by economic, social, regional, and global developments is a prerequisite.

Therefore, it can be concluded that Iran, despite its improved perception of the military threat in light of recent developments, has not changed its military and nuclear doctrine.

As a result, a change in Iran's military and nuclear doctrine appears difficult, if not impossible, for the following reasons:

Iran will prefer to prevent all developments that could lead to its military targeting, to ensure the continuity of the revolutionary regime and a smooth transfer of power after Ayatollah Khamenei.

The current Iranian economy is unable to withstand new sanctions. Restrictions on foreign trade, particularly oil exports, have significantly weakened the Iranian economy and led to a collapse in the value of the local currency against the dollar.

Iranian society suffers from serious structural problems, such as corruption, a dysfunctional judicial system, double standards, and a lack of freedoms. These problems could lead to the outbreak of new popular protests in the country.

Any military intervention or social unrest that threatens state security could create an environment conducive to increased activity by armed groups within the country and across its borders.

Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces, which are considered part of Iran's military doctrine, suffered heavy losses, and Iran was forced to withdraw from Syria, where it had spent billions of dollars for defensive purposes, severely damaging the "external defense line" of its military doctrine.