Can America and Israel replace Hamas' rule in Gaza?

Ramallah - Since the start of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip on October 7, there have been repeated Israeli and American statements about ending the rule of the Hamas movement in the Strip, as a primary goal of the war.

The White House announced last Wednesday that Washington is working with its partners in the region “to explore what governance in Gaza should look like in the future,” while the US State Department said, “We have made clear that Hamas cannot continue to rule and manage Gaza.”

Since 2007, the Palestinians have been living under a division in which Hamas runs the Gaza Strip, while the West Bank is run by a government formed by the Fatah movement.

In light of the projects proposed, to what extent are Hamas's alternatives in Gaza feasible? Is it possible to end the movement’s rule in the Gaza Strip? To what extent can the Palestinian Authority or Arab parties be an alternative to it in managing the sector in the future?

To answer these questions, Al Jazeera Net spoke to 3 political experts in the West Bank. Their opinions agreed that the American and Israeli aspirations were based on one scenario, which is that the war would end with the defeat of Hamas, and ruled out any other scenarios, and this has nothing to do with reality.

Other scenarios

According to Hani Al-Masry, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy Research and Strategic Studies (Masarat), talking about an alternative administration for Hamas in Gaza “is part of the war, as it is rumored that there is only one scenario, which is the defeat of Hamas and the Palestinian resistance, and in return any human being, expert or non-expert, knows that there are several scenarios for the course of the war.”

Al-Masry rules out the supposed scenario of defeating Hamas, wondering, "How can a popular movement be defeated that gained very large support after October 7, not only Palestinian, but also Arab and international support?"

Even if the unlikely scenario of “defeating the resistance” is accepted, “solutions such as a temporary administration, Arab and international forces, the return of power, or displacement are not easy to implement.”

As for the Palestinian Authority, Al-Masry believes that it is difficult to accept a return to Gaza “on the back of an Israeli tank,” adding, “It is also not easy for Israel to agree to its return, even though it is American’s preference, because what Israel wants is to re-change and rehabilitate the entire authority.”

If the authority accepts - and it is also excluded - Al-Masry says, "It will not be a representative of any Palestinian, but rather a traitor and an agent, and this applies to any other figures that the Americans and Israelis think about, because if they agree, they will be part of the Israeli-American project."

The director of the Masarat Center rules out that the Arab countries, especially Egypt and Jordan, will agree to any alternatives to managing Gaza in the current situation, “but if defeat occurs, they will agree on the basis of saving what can be saved, and here the people of Gaza will refuse to be ruled by people who do not represent them.”

Regarding his vision for the end of the current battle, Al-Masry tends to “a formula of neither victor nor loser, which allows each party to claim that it has achieved victory, because defeating either party in the military sense is impossible, and in this case the resistance is the victor, because it did not enable the other party to achieve its goals.” ".

In this case, the political analyst says, “Hamas will emerge weaker militarily but stronger politically,” meaning that “the effects of October 7 (the Al-Aqsa flood) are a strategic victory, regardless of the results of the current war, and after it, it will not be possible to ignore the Palestinian people and their cause, but rather think about how to give the Palestinians their rights.” Otherwise, things will deteriorate sooner or later.”

Conditional acceptance

For his part, Professor of Media at An-Najah National University, Dr. Farid Abu Dhair, wonders about the extent to which Israel can go in the war, “especially if losses and internal crises continue.”

The speaker does not rule out that the occupation will resort, within weeks, to negotiated or diplomatic means for a ceasefire with conditions, "and therefore the idea of an Arab or international administration in Gaza may be raised, and this means surrender."

Farid Abu Dhair wondered about the extent of Hamas’ readiness to surrender and hand over Gaza to an Arab or Palestinian body under an international framework? He answered, "Absolutely not, because it set clear and specific goals for this operation, which are stopping the raids on Al-Aqsa Mosque, the issue of prisoners, and the siege on Gaza and the West Bank."

Abu Dhair does not rule out the possibility of collusion, and perhaps Arab and regional acceptance of the proposed projects. “I am not surprised. Indeed, Arab officials may have called for the end of Hamas, since the Palestinian situation has become inspiring since the Stone Intifada and an incentive to take action against injustice.”

As for the hypothesis of the Palestinian Authority accepting the administration of Gaza, the media academic says that this is possible “according to its vision of preserving the interest of the Palestinian people, saving their blood, and striving to achieve goals peacefully without bloodshed.”

The same spokesman continues, "Yes, the authority may accept to stop bloodshed and build the Gaza Strip, with Arab, European, American, and Israeli blessings behind the scenes, but within the horizon of a political solution and Palestinian national consensus, and there is sufficient factional flexibility in this regard."

In the context of his analysis, Abu Dhair believes that the next stage will witness a Palestinian agreement on a solution based on a state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, “and this is an option acceptable to Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and the Arab countries, including the normalized countries.”

After October 7, Abu Dhair sees a change in the international mood, including the European and American ones, and even within the occupying state, regarding the reasons for what happened on this day, “because the conversation is no longer Israel’s security, but rather its existence.”

Psychological

Not far from my opinion, Al-Masry and Abu Dhair, the political analyst and director of Al-Quds Open University in Bethlehem, Dr. Asaad Al-Aweiwi, does not see “the possibility of ending the Hamas movement and thus its rule.”

Al-Aweiwi adds that Hamas is “a national liberation movement firmly rooted in the conscience of the Palestinian people and an integral part of it, and it is not a tunnel or a building to be eliminated.”

Asaad Al-Awawi commented that the owners of the alternative administration project "are anticipating events, as the outcomes of the battle will settle matters, and neither the United States, Israel, nor Western powers can end the spirit of resistance among the Palestinian people, or install an administration for the Gaza Strip."

Regarding the American statements, Al-Aweiwi believes that they are part of the psychological war on the Palestinian people, and are not taken for granted, and that they are merely an attempt to defend its eroding interests in the region, adding that the United States decides alone in light of a multipolar world.

Al-Aweiwi ruled out "the involvement of any Arab country in the issue of managing Gaza after this blood that was shed and the sacrifices. The only legitimacy is for those who defend the Palestinian people and who offer blood and lives, and governance must be agreed upon by the Palestinians."

The Palestinian analyst also rules out the Authority being drawn into the box of American and Israeli projects, and does not believe that anyone in the Palestinian people would accept to go on the back of an American-Israeli tank to rule, nor would the Fatah movement accept that either.

The same analyst points out that regional powers that have interests with the resistance “are beginning to show strong positions,” pointing to the recent visit of the Hamas delegation to Russia. “Russia has a developed position that is more biased toward the Palestinian people, their cause, and their freedom than ever before.”

Al-Awewi stated that Russia and China are speaking strongly about the aftermath of the war and the necessity of ending the occupation and establishing a Palestinian state, considering that this scene comes as a result of the great sacrifices of the Palestinian people, and the convergence of the positions of its political forces to establish a state in accordance with the resolutions of international legitimacy.

Source: Al Jazeera