Israeli Newspaper: The prospect of a new nuclear agreement could spark deep concern in Jerusalem

Michael Oren

My mother, a seasoned family therapist, used to say, "The apparent problem is not the real problem." That is, matters that appear more urgent are often used to mask a deeper, more threatening problem. This was the case with the hastily convened emergency summit between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The apparent problem was the trade tariffs imposed by the United States on Israel. It is true that they are serious and could cost Israel more than $2 billion at a time when it cannot afford such losses. However, the tariffs were not the reason Netanyahu rushed to Washington. The real problem is Iran.

During the two leaders' joint press conference yesterday in the Oval Office, Trump surprised his guest with a brief announcement: "We are in direct talks with Iran." It is important to note that the US president has never hidden his desire to talk with Iran. Indeed, immediately upon his return to the White House last January, he sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, inviting him to resume talks. But Trump has now revealed that the talks are at their peak, announcing that "there will be a very big meeting" next Saturday. Most surprisingly, these talks are direct between the United States and Iran.

This step was not dared by President Biden, who had hoped to revive the 2015 agreement. Biden's negotiating team refrained from meeting directly with the Iranians, using intermediaries to convey messages.

It is highly likely that Israel was aware of these direct talks, and Netanyahu did not publicly oppose them in his Oval Office statements. Nevertheless, the prospect of a new nuclear agreement is causing deep concern in Jerusalem. The key questions are: How long will the talks take? What is their ultimate goal? Is the goal to reach an agreement that is slightly better than the 2015 agreement, limited to a temporary freeze on Iran's nuclear program? And, ultimately, what will the United States' position be if the talks fail? These questions are of paramount importance to Israel's security. The Iranians are experts at negotiations and will almost certainly try to extend them as long as possible to allow Russia to repair and improve their air defense systems, which the Israeli Air Force destroyed. They will likely agree to a slightly better deal than the 2015 agreement, but they will retain their nuclear infrastructure and reactors. They will demand the lifting of the harsh sanctions reimposed by Trump and the removal of the credible military threat that has been put back on the table.

While Israel works to resolve the apparent issue of tariffs, it must focus on obtaining answers to the real problem: renewed talks between the United States and Iran. We must obtain clear guarantees regarding the talks and their ultimate goals. We must make clear that the only agreement Israel will accept is one that dismantles Iran's nuclear infrastructure, not one that merely freezes it.

Only such an agreement can guarantee Israel's vital security interests and consolidate its military achievements in the region. It must be emphasized that only such an agreement serves the interests of Israel and the entire Middle East, as well as those of the United States itself.