As Israel moves to occupy Gaza, what next for Hamas?

Mohamed Solaimane

After Israel resumed its military campaign in Gaza in mid-March, and now with the Israeli army announcing a sweeping expansion of its assault last week, Hamas, which has ruled the enclave since 2007, finds itself with fewer options than ever to manoeuvre politically or militarily, facing mounting pressure both internally and externally. 

Analysts warn that Israel’s military operations remain part of a broader strategy it has pursued since the aftermath of the Hamas-led 7 October attacks, aimed at occupying Gaza and forcibly displacing its population.

The situation is also becoming increasingly dire, with regional allies that the group once relied on, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, now constrained by their own geopolitical pressures.

Even the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, who have shown support by disrupting maritime trade in the Red Sea, now face a volatile response from Washington, threatening to destabilise the already fragile balance in the region.

Internally, Hamas is also facing rare public dissent. Protests have erupted in some areas of Gaza, calling for an end to the war and for Hamas to relinquish control of the territory. Israel was also quick to pounce on these, with Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz urging Palestinians to join the protests. 

"You too should demand the removal of Hamas from Gaza and the immediate release of all Israeli hostages," he stated. "That is the only way to stop the war."

A way out for Hamas

But against this bleak backdrop, Wissam Afifa, a Palestinian political commentator, pointed out that Hamas has still, in some aspects, retained leverage. 

“There’s no room for flexibility, but the hostage issue remains a pressure point on Israel,” he said. Afifa also cautioned that the Netanyahu government is using the matter to serve its own political interests while pressing ahead with its military offensive.

Hamas still holds 59 hostages, while a total of 147 hostages have been released or rescued since the October 2023 attacks.

“While it is a powerful card,” he said, “it still remains unclear how Hamas will use it to pressure the Israelis back into the negotiation table, especially after Netanyahu’s recent statements of how ceasefire talks will continue ‘only under fire.’”

Among the many scenarios proposed is the possibility of Hamas withdrawing from political and administrative control in Gaza, handing over governance and the hostage file to neutral regional actors like Egypt or the Arab League, and ultimately to the Palestinian Authority (PA). 

“This solution is marketed as one that would strip Israel of its justifications for continued military aggression,” he said. “However, it’s completely unrealistic. Unlike the PLO’s exit from Beirut in 1982, Hamas is not a guest force in a foreign land; it is woven into Gaza’s social fabric. Its members live on their soil, in their homeland.”

Afifa pointed out that Hamas has already expressed willingness to relinquish administrative control of Gaza, even accepting a community-based committee to oversee governance. But he warns that Israel’s objectives far exceed simply sidelining Hamas.

Political analyst Thaer Abu Atiwi disagreed with this notion, arguing that the only path forward lies in political realism.

“Hamas must accept the Arab Peace Initiative and work within the framework of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO,” he said. “This could strip Israel of its war rationale and create space for regional powers, Egypt, Qatar, and others, to intervene diplomatically.”

Israeli affairs expert Mustafa Ibrahim told The New Arab that this war is not just a fight against Hamas but an existential assault on the broader Palestinian national project.

“To say Hamas should leave the scene is not just politically naive, it’s nationally irresponsible,” he said.

Abu Atiwi, however, insists that such a shift is not surrender but strategic recalibration. 

“Survival, both of Gaza’s population and of Hamas as a political actor, requires stepping back, allowing this storm to pass, and letting external actors negotiate a long-term ceasefire.”

He proposed an all-encompassing prisoner exchange deal, mediated by Arab nations, as a key diplomatic entry point. 

“Finalising the detainee issue could shift the international conversation, force Israel into accountability, and rally global support for reconstruction.”

Growing pressure

Ibrahim told The New Arab that Israel’s aim is no longer just to pressure Hamas into concessions, it is to militarily occupy Gaza and ensure long-term control. 

“With full-throated American support and a united Israeli political consensus, including the opposition, the Netanyahu government resumed full-scale war on 19 March with renewed vigour,” he argued.

He added that Netanyahu is using the pretence of Hamas’s continued rule and weapons arsenal as a convenient cover. 

“In reality, he rejects all solutions. His goal is the eradication of all Palestinian capacities, displacement of the population, and elimination of any semblance of Palestinian nationhood,” he said.

Afifa echoed the same sentiment, dismissing Israeli claims that Hamas still possesses a significant arsenal. 

“Much of the arsenal has already been destroyed. If Israel knew of more stockpiles, they would have targeted them,” he said, noting that what remains is primarily small arms like Kalashnikovs, which are widespread throughout Gaza.

Ibrahim, however, acknowledged the heavy blow to Hamas, noting that with the regional environment turning increasingly hostile - especially following a diminished role for Hezbollah and a more cautious Iran - the group is largely isolated. 

“The movement is also facing internal unrest, including rare public protests calling for its removal from power and an end to the war,” he added. “These could all be signs for what’s to come.”

Abu Atiwi agreed that Hamas’s military capabilities have been severely degraded after more than a year of relentless bombardment.

“Most of Hamas’s infrastructure has been decimated, its fighting forces depleted, and Gaza remains under a suffocating siege, with closed crossings and no prospects of relief,” he said.

Afifa also highlighted this, arguing that Israel’s current military strategy is “highly calculated,” focusing on areas it has already devastated. The strategy relies heavily on aerial bombardment while minimising large-scale troop exposure.

“These recent assaults have seen Israel avoiding direct, sustained confrontation with Hamas’s remaining ground forces,” he added.

But Afifa believes that this is not the last chapter for the militant group. Throughout the war, which was now extended beyond the 18-month mark, with only a two-month ceasefire interrupting the fighting, Hamas has already “proven its resilience” and may withstand the onslaught once again, he argued, pointing out that the group has navigated similar challenges in the past.

“Hamas has previously survived existential threats, like the early Gaza blockade and confrontations with the Palestinian Authority,” he said. “However, this war has dealt unprecedented blows, especially to Hamas’s senior leadership and military infrastructure.”

A sliver of hope

Both Ibrahim and Abu Atiwi warned that the current war, if left unchecked, would set the stage for a broader Israeli campaign, this time targeting the West Bank. 

Already, they argued, Israel is working to weaken the Palestinian Authority in preparation for a complete political dismantling of Palestinian self-rule.

Yet, despite the bleak conditions, Ibrahim holds out a sliver of hope: a united Palestinian political front, backed by massive regional public mobilisation, could still pressure Israel and the United States. 

He noted that US President Donald Trump’s planned visit to the region in May, where he is expected to tout a regional peace and investment plan, could be politically ill-timed if war rages on. 

“Trump needs calm, not carnage, to advance normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” he said. “This may offer a final window for coordinated Arab pressure to force Netanyahu’s hand, secure a ceasefire, and halt the downward spiral in Gaza before it becomes irreversible.”