How will the Gaza war end?

Not an escape of talking about the Gaza crisis and its dangerous war, its beginnings and developments, but there is an aspect in which there is ambiguity: how will it end, who will surrender, and in exchange for what? The ongoing Israeli military attack, which did not exclude civilians and services, is in fact greater than a reaction to Hamas attacks. Its size confirms that it is a project to change the political reality.

At the beginning of the attack, Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, had previously said: The region after October 7 will not be the same as before? Its echo was echoed in Western capitals, which clearly supported it and declared that the goal was to remove Hamas from Gaza.

We are facing a terrible humanitarian crisis, the middle of a military battle, and the beginning of a different political project. The Israelis may succeed in achieving their goal, which will mean the end of the armed organization as we know it, but the departure of Hamas from the equation will not eliminate the Palestinian cause and its rights, nor will it stop the danger to Israel, as evidenced by the October attacks themselves, which were larger than all previous operations, despite the fact that Israel besieged Gaza and has monitored Hamas' activities for years.

The irony is that the two enemies, Hamas and Netanyahu, are the two groups most closely allied against the peace project, and they worked to obstruct it. The second paradox is that Hamas and Netanyahu are the losers in the war. Hamas may lose Gaza, and Netanyahu, due to the defeat of the October attack, will lose the presidency of the government, and may end up in prison on pre-war corruption charges. The third paradox is that it is the deadly war that will breathe life into the train of peace, and not the other way around.

We remember how the expulsion of Yasser Arafat and his fighters from Lebanon at that time actually ended Fatah as a military organization, but Arafat positioned himself politically and succeeded in returning to Palestine as an authority, through the Oslo Accords. History may repeat itself, even in light of this humanitarian catastrophe, the worst in the history of the Israeli conflict in half a century.

The war will stop after a few weeks, and everyone will be forced to activate political action. Ismail Haniyeh surprised everyone. At the height of the fighting, he expressed Hamas' readiness to accept peace based on a two-state solution, because he was aware of the possibilities following war. Hamas is not strong enough to repel US-backed Israel, especially since it has been left to fight alone by its allies. Haniyeh wants the movement to have a political face, not just a military one, and a role in reaping the fruits of the October 7 attacks. The problem facing Haniyeh and Meshaal is that Hamas inside does not recognize any role for its leaders abroad, and it was leaked that their men were removed from leadership positions in 2017. The movement has been managed since then by its military leaders, specifically Yahya Sinwar. Because of the movement's besieged situation and what will follow, its leaders abroad may have a seat at the table for possible peace negotiations later, which they launched their attacks to crush.

Among the challenges is that the Americans have previously classified Hamas as a terrorist organization, and they will be forced to back down at the next moment if they adopt the peace project. They banned Arafat from entering the United States, prevented US officials from meeting him, and sought to invent alternative leaders for him, Abdel Shafi and Ashrawi, to negotiate at the Madrid Conference. Then the Americans later agreed to sit with Arafat because it was not possible to negotiate and make peace without him. The extremist Hamas is not Fatah. However, it remains a difficult number that cannot be ignored. If it agrees, it will strengthen the position of the Palestinian Authority in potential negotiations.

Until then, there is a road map full of traps. Hamas has a force of 35 thousand, and Israel considers getting rid of them a goal, and this is an almost impossible task militarily without massive losses on both sides and horrific civilians losses. Will Hamas accept the exit in order to reduce losses among civilians and its members? If it agrees to give up its weapons, the second challenge is that no Arab country is ready to host them for fear of the accompanying dangers. In this impasse, the warring parties may be convinced of a compromise solution. Here comes the role of the Palestinian Authority in managing Gaza. Here we see a light in Gaza's dark tunnels.

The talk continues on options of peace and weapons.

Source: Al-Sharq Al-Awsat