The future of Gaza and impossible choices

By Mounir Adeeb

About a month has passed since the war launched by Israel on the Gaza Strip, with no prospect of stopping it, with the daily attacks on the Palestinians, due to the absence of international will to stop this raging war. The international community confused Israel's right to defend itself with its targeting of civilians.

There are no options for Israel other than a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, and all scenarios lead to further escalation that may end in a long war that Israel enters with the Arabs, in light of the Israeli target bank being empty. It failed to eliminate Hamas during the past four weeks, remove it from ruling Gaza, or even weaken it!

It is true that Iran quickly entered the confrontation line with Israel, whether after or before the Hamas movement stormed the Gaza envelope settlements, through its affiliates, the Lebanese or Iraqi Hezbollah, or through some of its affiliated militias in Iraq or even in Syria. But the continuation of this war may ignite the Arab and regional region.

Iran is an important figure in the Gaza war, but the Arabs will pay its price in a war whose date may have been set by Tehran. It is true that Israel is the one pushing for further escalation, using all of its prohibited weapons that it has employed to kill Palestinian civilians. But the countries of the Arab region stand on the brink of a conflict whose features and boundaries are not clear, at least not yet.

The Gaza war scenarios, after approaching the completion of the first month, seem frightening, in light of the absence of negotiations of any kind that might lead to ending the war or reducing the pace of escalation. This may be due to the lack of an international will to stop the bleeding of this war, as the voice of reason has disappeared and the Israeli planes are still there. It claims thousands of civilians, and the post-war scenarios also seem unclear.

There are no solutions on the horizon and there is no willingness to open a loophole, even a small one, in future negotiations that might end this war, with the current Israeli government in place. Especially since she is looking for a political way out, as the amount of criticism she has been subjected to and the situation has warned of an explosion is enough to hold her accountable, at least inside Israel.

Therefore, it seems difficult to stop this war or convince the current political leadership in Israel of any solutions in light of the presence of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that is ruling, and not the emergency government that was formed to manage the recent war on Gaza. If the international community is serious about stopping the ongoing war and reducing the pace of the current conflict, then it must put pressure on this government or topple it inside Israel. Otherwise, the war and its repercussions will continue for a longer time.

In the Netanyahu government, some of its ministers are still searching for a political future for themselves, and perhaps this is a justification for what Israel was exposed to on October 7, before they were tried by the Israeli people or investigated politically after the end of the war. Therefore, this government insists on more... Of uncalculated escalation to escape the inevitable fate.

The United States of America is a major supporter of Israel, but in the recent period it has appeared as if it is guiding the behavior of its ally, especially in targeting civilians, and sees the need to be patient in carrying out a ground invasion of Gaza, especially since the cost to Israel in terms of human losses resulting from this operation will be great, with the escalation Washington believes that reducing Its severity may be useful for the release of Israeli prisoners.

On the other hand, the Israeli government seems intent on further escalation without considering the consequences of that, and perhaps its options are zero in dealing with the Hamas attack on it. This is demonstrated by the emptiness of the Israeli target bank, as the Israeli machine has turned to killing civilians in Gaza without targeting them. Hamas leaders or access to them.

The slogan of the current Israeli government is further escalation, whatever the cost. Believing that the more it escalates its military operations, the further it will be from accountability. The government is pinning its future on eliminating the Hamas movement in Gaza or on the Israeli army achieving its desired goals.

We are convinced that the Israeli government will not be able to fully achieve its goals, and therefore there will be no solution to the escalating crisis in Gaza. The solution appears to be to change this government, or for the escalation to continue from both sides, so all options remain on the table and exist, and among them may be a war that includes the entire region. .

The question that must be asked at this time is: Will America intervene to overthrow the Netanyahu government or change it so that the door can be opened to solutions that have all been closed, especially since signs of the Israeli escalation and its cost are beginning to appear with its soldiers falling at the gates and edges of Gaza before it enters it?

It seems difficult to completely eliminate Hamas, and therefore Israel will not be able to achieve a complete ground invasion, in light of international and regional positions and changes that may change the equation for achieving a complete Israeli victory in this battle, hence the talk about the presence of international or regional supervision over the Gaza Strip after the elimination. On Hamas, it seems like a luxury to discuss.

“Hamas” may go to internationalize its cause and target Israel’s interests abroad, and resort to carrying out operations outside the borders of Palestine, an option that may cost Israel and may lead to an uncalculated transformation that will cause everyone to pay its price, and therefore resorting to zero-sum options by either party will be useless. In any case.

It is better for the international community to push for logical options for the conflict and for the force on the ground, and the best option for this is to have a path to resolve the Palestinian conflict and establish a Palestinian state. The presence of an army and a sovereign state may preserve Israel's security, not the other way around.

Resorting to the option of force and considering it the only and optimal option complicates the ongoing conflict, and may involve everyone in a long and protracted conflict, in which everyone will pay its price, including the United States. Therefore, searching for logical options that are compatible with international decisions is tantamount to walking on the right path, and anything less than that. Everyone will walk in the orbit of conflict for the next seventy years.

The international community must search for options acceptable to both sides of the conflict, and these options must be compatible with the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, who are searching for their right to an occupied land and their right also to the return of refugees and the existence of an independent, sovereign state recognized by the United Nations.