Has Israel become the hostage of American defense?

By Maher Al-Sharif

The United States of America has never been directly involved in a war fought by Israel in the past, as it is doing these days in the war that Israel is waging against the Gaza Strip. In the October 1973 war, for example, the United States of America was content with establishing an air bridge to supply Israel with weapons when the latter was facing, in the first phase of that war, difficult situations facing the Egyptian and Syrian armies. In 1991, the United States of America sent Patriot batteries to defend Israel against attacks by Iraqi Scud missiles, as a rare exception.

Questioning the feasibility of a defense alliance with the United States

Since the time of David Ben-Gurion, Israel has adopted a military doctrine, one of the foundations of which was the commitment to rely on its own capabilities to defend itself. Based on this doctrine, Israel has always refrained from establishing military alliances or treaties, even with its closest ally, the United States of America. Years ago, during the era of former US President Donald Trump, the idea of establishing a defense alliance between Israel and the United States was proposed. Then this idea emerged again when talking about establishing a defensive alliance between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States as one of three conditions put forward by the Saudi leadership to normalize its relations with Israel. But this alliance did not see the light of day due to the opposition that emerged against it.

It is true that the ruling circles in Israel remain convinced that one of the main elements of Israel’s strength is the alliance with the United States of America, and that questioning this alliance may threaten “the essence of Israel’s existence” as an independent and sovereign state in the violent world in which we live,” he wrote. Analyst Yoram Dori, on July 16, 2023 in the Maariv newspaper, estimated that “the confrontation with the United States is not only foolish, but also constitutes an existential threat to Israel”; However, despite this conviction, these circles remained, in general, cautious about mortgaging Israeli foreign and defense policies to American policies through establishing a military alliance between the two countries.

On June 12, 2023, Israeli analyst Omer Dostri published in the newspaper “Makor Rishon” an article entitled: “It is forbidden to rely on the Americans: Israel must prepare to attack Iran alone,” in which he assumed that the administration of President Joe Biden “will refrain from Taking certain steps against Iran, and will try to thwart every Israeli attack against Iran, so that it can be assumed that Biden wants to reach the period of the US presidential elections in November 2024, and he has a political achievement in the field of foreign relations, in the form of an agreement with Iran.” He concludes, based on this assumption, that Israel “must prepare itself for the possibility of acting alone regarding everything related to dealing with the Iranian nuclear weapon; and more than that, it must be ready in the event that the Biden administration refuses to grant legitimacy to an Israeli strike, and also prevents American assistance.” 

In the strategic military field (providing weapons and refusing to sell weapons intended for attack), in the operational military field (intelligence cooperation), in the political field (persuading countries in the region to cooperate with Israel), and in the diplomatic field (lack of using a veto in the United Nations Security Council, and the absence of... Support before the international community)”. 

On the first of this October, that is, a few days before the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, analyst Yitzhak Klein, from Channel 7 Arotz Sheva, published an article entitled: “It must be said: No to an Israeli-American defense alliance.” He noted In it, he noted that “in the framework of the tripartite negotiations between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, where one of the Saudi demands is a defensive alliance with the United States, the idea of building a defensive alliance between Israel and the United States was also put forward,” calling for the rejection of this idea, since “an alliance between Israel and the United States will harm the security of the two countries, and in particular the security of Israel, because it will mean that the latter will not have “open resources to do whatever it deems appropriate to defend its security, but rather the United States will ensure its defense from bad consequences,” and Israel will not be able to do so. “Any action that the United States believes is unnecessary and excessive.” On the other hand, such an alliance could “push the United States to question Israel’s demands to obtain advanced weapons (at the expense of the American taxpayer),” on the premise that Israel will not need this advanced weapon as long as the United States is Which "guarantees its security". 

The same analyst concluded by saying that the existence of common interests between these two countries does not necessarily mean that “all the interests of the two countries are the same,” stressing that the most important guarantee for Israel’s security is “the independence of decision-making on what it must do to defend itself and act based on that.” And that Israel “must remember the year 1975, because in that year, the United States abandoned its ally, South Vietnam, and accepted its fall into the hands of enemies. Also in the same year, Prime Minister Golda Meir warned her people against relying on American promises, which is A valid warning today as well.”

The United States is strengthening its military presence in the region

Since the eighth of this month, the United States of America has sent to Israel reinforcements for the “Iron Dome” anti-missile force, a ship full of ammunition, and a number of its military advisors. It has also increased the numbers of its soldiers stationed in its bases spread across a number of countries in the region, and sent its latest anti-missile defense systems and mobilized two aircraft carriers and several destroyers and battleships from its naval fleet towards the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. 

It even went as far as President Joe Biden and his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken personally participating, during their visits to Israel, in the meetings of the “Israeli Mini-Ministerial Council for War Affairs.” While the US President asked Congress to approve funding worth $14 billion for Israel’s war fund, his Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, announced on the 21st of this month that “these measures will strengthen regional deterrence efforts, increase the protection of American forces in the region, and help defend Israel.” On the 19th of this month, an American destroyer in the Red Sea shot down three missiles and a number of drones launched by the Houthis from Yemen, which were likely directed at targets in Israel. 

On the 26th of this month, American aircraft responded to a bombing of American military bases in Iraq and Syria by attacking “two facilities stationed in eastern Syria used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its affiliated groups,” according to a statement issued by the Pentagon, in which it was stated that these attacks came after “ A warning sent by US President Joe Biden to the Iranian leadership that “any attack targeting US forces that threatens to provoke an expansion of the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas would prompt an immediate military response” by US forces.

“Israel and the United States go to war together for the first time.”

This is what was stated in the title of an article written by analyst Ron Ben Yeshan, on the 23rd of this month in the newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth”, in which he estimated that Israel and its security system “must take the American position into consideration when planning action, whether the matter is related to the steps taken to free the kidnapped people, or Regarding other steps that would affect their fates,” this is because the Americans are “in the midst of a regional battle, in which they are protecting both their forces and Israel from attacks by organizations orbiting Iran,” referring to “the need for the Americans to get involved to this extent in the ongoing war.” “To the dangerous erosion of Israel’s deterrence capacity vis-à-vis the countries of the region, in the wake of the ongoing internal political crisis, and in the wake of the success of the attack carried out by “Hamas” in the towns of the “Gaza envelope.” At the Israeli request, the Israeli government and security system are obligated to listen to American requests and advice and to respond to Washington’s demands, while it grits its teeth and knows clearly that without this operational partnership and logistical assistance, it will face difficulties in withstanding a multi-front war, especially If Iran and Hezbollah decide to escalate matters to the point where they reach an all-out war”. 

Analyst Eitan Gilboa was more clear when he stated, in an article published on the 17th of this month by the Maariv newspaper, that the United States is currently acting “as if it had signed a defense agreement with Israel,” considering that “this way of working has both advantages and disadvantages,” and that the president’s primary strategic goal is Joe Biden “is to deter Iran and Hezbollah from opening a second front in the north on their part, but also on Israel’s part,” because he “does not want a regional war added to the one taking place in Ukraine; therefore, he warns, and sent two aircraft carriers, one in Off the Lebanese coast and the other to the Persian Gulf, in addition to 2,000 paratroopers,” he also sent, in order to “improve Israel’s ability to continue militarily,” an airlift “full of advanced weapons and equipment,” concluding that the war against “Hamas” and jihad “represents well the defensive alliance.” between the United States and Israel, and if these two organizations are dismantled without a second front in the north, this will strengthen this alliance, without being formal.”

In fact, the prevailing feeling in Israel is that the nature of American-Israeli relations has witnessed a change as a result of the current war, which was expressed by analyst Joab Brommer, in an article published on the 27th of this month in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, when he pointed out that support the American history of Israel was based in the past “on the assumption that Israel does not need support, meaning that it is sufficient for the United States to provide Israel with the means of combat, and as for the latter, it will achieve victory with its own capabilities,” and this is what made Israel “unlike Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.” “And the NATO countries have never needed a nuclear umbrella, or the presence of American forces to defend their lands.” But Israel is now living - as he continued - in a vicious circle: “If it is viewed, for the first time in its life, as needing... For the United States to rescue it, or at least to provide it with assistance to protect itself from Hezbollah, its strategic effectiveness will be undermined, in the eyes of many Americans. 

On the other hand, it is not certain that Israel will be able to emerge victorious from the multi-front confrontation, without this. Military intervention”.

Will American involvement in this war benefit Beijing and Moscow?

The fear of Israel's inability to wage a multi-front war, and fear for its future, are what prompted President Joe Biden - who sometimes defines himself as a "convinced Zionist" - to employ all this American military power to defend Israel and engage in a war in the East. The Middle East, noting that his country's vital strategic interests require "keeping the decades-long conflicts in the Near and Middle East frozen" and "concentrating all its diplomatic and military resources in its conflict with its main opponent, China," which it sees as the "main threat" to its global hegemony. 

Although some analysts estimate that “it is difficult to predict the long-term consequences of the conflict in the Middle East,” which “depend above all on Israel’s potential success in its desire to eliminate Hamas,” there are those who believe that Israel’s war on the Strip Gaza could “affect the global balance of power and drain American resources,” and “shake the global order to Moscow and Beijing’s advantage,” so that Washington’s current focus on the Middle East “is a boon for China, which is preparing for a potential confrontation with the United States over Taiwan,” as well as For Russia, which hopes to “relieve pressure on it” and reduce “Western support for Ukraine”.

Source: Institute of Palestinian Studies