Will Israel succeed in dragging Iran into a regional war?

Author: Adel bin Hamza

Tomorrow, the Middle East region enters a new week of the war launched by Israel against Gaza in response to the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation launched by Hamas on October 7, and talk is still ongoing about a ground operation in the Gaza Strip to achieve the goal announced by Israel. , which decrees the final elimination of the Hamas movement, because aerial bombardment, despite its destructive power, cannot be decisive without ground intervention. But the delay in the ground operation reveals the extent of the complications involved.

Israel is moving with comprehensive political and military cover from the United States, Britain, and Germany. It became clear from the first hours of the outbreak of the war that Israel's undeclared goals go beyond simply eliminating Hamas. On the other hand, the American administration has clearly demonstrated that it does not want the war on Gaza to turn into a regional war, especially the interference of Iran and its allies in what is known as the “Axis of Resistance,” and perhaps moving the aircraft carrier “Gerald Ford” to the eastern Mediterranean and strengthening it with a second aircraft carrier, “the Axis of Resistance.” USS Dwight Eisenhower,” as announced by the US Department of Defense, is intended to provide maximum deterrence signals to regional parties so that they do not interfere.

It seems that the American deterrence weapon is giving good results up to the moment, as Iran has been threatening Israel since the outbreak of the war. This was stated by Revolutionary Leader Ali Khamenei and the President of the Republic, Ebrahim Raisi, and it was confirmed by Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian during a press conference in Beirut last Saturday, following his meeting with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, when he said, “Israel must stop its war crimes immediately.” Because after several hours it will be too late,” he added, adding that “Hezbollah has prepared many escalation scenarios that will cause an earthquake in Israel.” It does not matter that Al-Lahiyan was speaking from Beirut and threatening war with Israel from a country that is supposed to have sovereignty and is thousands of kilometers away from Iran, thus exposing Lebanon to what Israel threatened to return to the Stone Age. 

The Iranian minister met on the same day in Beirut with the United Nations Middle East envoy, Thor Wensland, and repeated Iran's threat to intervene.

These statements, messages, and threats have been around for nearly a full week today, during which the Israeli bombing witnessed greater violence, the humanitarian crisis escalated, the Baptist Hospital was bombed, and the issue of displacement began to take a serious course. In general, it can be said that Gaza is being completely annihilated, so where are the hours that Abdullahian talked about?

Anyone who follows the events knows that Washington and Tel Aviv are on opposite sides when it comes to viewing Iran. While Israel sees it as an existential threat, the United States sees it as a horse that can be tamed, even if only temporarily. Here we recall Israel's strong opposition to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which is known as the nuclear agreement that the US administration under Barack Obama signed with Iran on July 14, 2015, along with China, Russia, France, Britain, and Germany. Benjamin Netanyahu described the agreement at the time as a “historic mistake,” and many Israeli politicians and security personnel considered that this agreement would strengthen Iran’s position, especially in traditional military aspects such as ballistic missiles, in addition to the certainty that Tehran would use the revenues from lifting sanctions to tighten the cordon around Israel through... Its allies in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. 

Some Israeli estimates even went further when they considered that the continuation of the civilian nuclear program in Iran would eventually enable Iran to possess nuclear weapons, even if this was achieved after 10 or 15 years. Therefore, Israel continued to target the US Congress to overthrow the nuclear agreement, which was achieved with the Donald Trump administration and which Joe Biden’s administration has continued to do to this day despite all the attempts made by the Europeans. Contrary to this, some senior Israeli Mossad officials (Amos Yadlin, Ephraim Halevy) were of the opinion that the nuclear agreement would enable Iran to delay Iran’s ability to possess nuclear weapons, something that would be achieved at the lowest cost, in reference to avoiding a war with Iran.

In general, the Iranian nuclear program crisis showed that Washington and Tel Aviv do not have identical agendas in dealing with the Iranian threat. This matter was repeated in the recent agreement between Washington and Tehran regarding the release of 5 American prisoners in exchange for Iran obtaining $6 billion of its funds frozen within the framework of American sanctions. 

Through this new step towards Iran, Washington demonstrated that it seeks to neutralize Tehran or at least push it to take balanced positions that do not seek escalation in the hotbeds of conflict in the region. The American vision appeared clearly from the first hours of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. At a time when Israel was clearly and explicitly accusing Iran of its involvement in the planning and decision to attack, Washington was seeking with all its effort to remove Iran from the circle of accusation. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had stated that Washington had no evidence of Iran’s involvement in the sudden and large-scale attacks it launched. Hamas movement, saying: “In this particular case, we do not have any evidence of direct involvement in planning or carrying out this attack,” which is the same assessment that the US State Department concluded, although it left the door open to the possibility of Iranian involvement. We conclude this from what was stated by US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, when he said in a press statement: “Our experience in these matters indicates that it is too early to draw any final conclusions in this regard.” He added: “We will look at additional intelligence in the coming days and weeks” to see “whether some in the Iranian regime have a clearer picture” of the planned operations or “contributed to aspects of the planning.”

In summary, it can be said that Washington is trying to push Iran and its tools in the region away from an open war against all possibilities in Gaza, whether through the carrot of the lucrative deal that pumped $6 billion into the coffers of a bankrupt regime suffering from a long siege, or through the stick. 

They are represented by the American aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean, which will undoubtedly intervene directly if Iran intervenes in the war, whether through southern Lebanon or the Syrian Golan. On the other hand, and contrary to what many believe, Tel Aviv seems to be rushing Iranian intervention to resolve the only serious existential threat it will face in the region in the coming decades. Will Israel succeed in dragging Iran into a regional war that could spell the end of the Ayatollahs’ regime?

Source: Annahar Al araby