The question of the million Palestinians to Egypt

We are living through double events... the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the intense bombing of Gaza, the mass displacement, the targeting of hospitals, the cessation of electricity and water from Israel to Gaza, and the skirmishes with Hezbollah.

We expected that the kidnapped Westerners and Israelis would be a major card in the war, but instead of them, about a million Palestinians became an Israeli card.

Israel, which has threatened a major invasion, has so far chosen aerial bombardment, which causes major disasters for civilians and reduces casualties among the ranks of its forces. If the bombing continues, disasters and civilian casualties will increase. The bombing of the hospital was most likely the work of Israel, which had previously threatened to target it under the pretext that Hamas leaders were hiding there. Hamas' losses are relatively few, as relying on air attacks is less effective in wars against militias, unlike armies, such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as happened in the confrontations in Lebanon and Iraq before.

The most dangerous issue resulting from the crisis is the displacement of about a million people from the north of the Gaza Strip to its south, and perhaps their displacement from the south to the Egyptian Sinai. This will be the largest Palestinian migration since the 1967 war! Is expelling about a third of the Gaza Strip’s population to Egypt possible?

The first exodus from northern Gaza to its south is part of the battle with Hamas, and later it will be a large, wide buffer zone protecting its borders. While the displacement of one million Palestinians to Egypt is an issue that concerns all countries of the region. Is it a realistic proposition? It is unlikely to happen in the current circumstances for many reasons. Most notably, Egypt completely rejects it for political and security considerations. Egypt is an ally of the United States, and Israel itself will not sacrifice its diplomatic relationship with Egypt. Therefore, the displacement of the Palestinians will not take place without the approval of Egypt, which is sure to oppose. The situation is different, if the situation of clashes with Syria or Lebanon, Israel might push the residents of the adjacent areas, if any, towards the border.

As for “How did millions of Syrians end up?” They fled the battles in Turkey, which is a different topic and different circumstances. Damascus considered Turkey responsible for supporting the opposition, and Turkey was unable to intervene directly militarily, so it opened its borders to Syrian refugees in numbers considered unprecedented since World War II. Today, Turkey is suffering from the large number of refugees and the economic, social and political repercussions.

When Israel talks about displacing the population of Gaza to Egypt, it is as if it wants to punish Egypt for what it considers negligence at the crossings, tunnels, and borders. The displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, whether internally or externally, will be a reward for both Israel and Iran. Israel gets rid of a large number of Palestinians on its borders, and Iran has weakened and threatened Egypt's security, and strengthened Iran's negotiating position, along with Hezbollah and Syria.