Implications of Trump's victory on the foreign policies of the Arab East

Trump's recent victory in the US presidency was a landslide victory against candidate Harris, as he won by a large margin, in addition to the clear control of the Democratic Party over the US Senate and Congress, a historic success, as Trump's policy is radically different from Biden and Harris' policy, whether in domestic or foreign policy. When Trump decides, he implements it quickly and decisively, especially with regard to the US domestic economic situation, as well as with regard to the external economic and security situation, as he always seeks peace.

During Biden's term, compared to Biden's economic policy, what we see today of this inflation did not exist, as the inflation rate in America was about 1.4%, and when compared to the rate during Biden's term, we find that it has reached about 9% today, which constitutes a great burden on the American citizen, and this inflation has also negatively affected the world, as Biden prevented the production of American oil, as they have a reserve that represents the largest reserve in the world, and when Trump takes over, he will allow the production of local American oil, which will affect the reduction of the price of oil globally, and this will of course have a positive impact on the American and global economies.

Trump's main goal is to bring peace and security to the world, and this was clear when he was President of America in 2016. There was no war between Russia and Ukraine and there was no war now raging in the Middle East. I believe that he will seek to end the war in Ukraine. He also has good relations with Russian President Putin, and he promised that he will also seek to stop the war in Gaza and Lebanon, and to calm the conflicts, especially in the Middle East. The Arab East region will be clean and calm from wars during his term.

Americans realize that Trump is the most successful economically, and this was clear since his childhood, as he has a successful career in the field of real estate. He is the American president who knows how to manage economic affairs locally, and his success will certainly have a direct impact on the world economically, especially in the field of the speed of his impact on the global price of oil.

The foreign policies that Trump can play and the very important role that America will play that will inevitably affect the Arab East are: First, I believe that Trump wants to reach an understanding with Putin, i.e. Russia, regarding the Ukrainian war, which has a major impact on natural gas prices and its repercussions on Europe, as well as what is related to the pipeline coming from Russia to Ukraine, Europe and NATO countries, and all these countries that have suffered from the problem of the availability and security of natural gas.

Second: American relations with the Arab East, especially with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has distanced itself from the United States of America, specifically during the Biden administration, and opened its doors and diplomacy to expand relations with Russia and President Putin, as well as the Saudi openness with China and the BRICS countries, which are controlled by a diplomacy that follows the same political line, compared to America, which changes its policy based on the ruling party and the winner of the American presidency (Democratic or Republican), as each party changes its policy with the Gulf states, as well as the American relationship with the countries of the Arab East, such as Syria and Iraq, which are suffering today from Iranian influence and the Iranian militias present in them. For example, Biden's policy was smooth with Iran and returned to them the financial amounts related to the nuclear file, as political flexibility or a tone of flirting is noted in the statements exchanged between them, and flirting with a confrontation on the issue of launching timid missiles between them.

Trump's policy will change with regard to the Islamic Republic of Iran, and he will be harsh and firm in his decisions with it. Trump will rely in his new policy on the strategy of economically strangling Iran, due to its support for its allies in the Arab region, namely Hezbollah and the Houthis, and regarding their presence in Iraq as well. Most importantly, the American endeavor, through the upcoming Trump administration, to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions and reduce its military influence in the Arab East region. This is the policy that Trump has adopted in the past with Iran.

For example, the Trump administration's policy was to assassinate Qassem Soleimani and thus eliminate his growing influence in Iraq. I believe that Trump's relationship will be worse than it was in the past, as he will increase and tighten US sanctions on Iran again. During Trump's election campaign, he stated several times that Iran was behind the assassination attempt that did not succeed, but only injured his ear. He stated: "God saved him in order for him to serve his country." Things will definitely escalate with Iran and must be resolved, even militarily. Trump's policy is based on resolving matters with Iran in particular, and it is linked to ridding the Arab region in the Arab East of Iranian influence completely and decisively, represented by Iran's arms in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, and preventing it from expanding its influence in the Arab countries that Iran always covets to control. With the new US administration now, represented by the incoming President Trump, America has warned the Iraqi state and asked it not to allow Iran to use Iraqi territory to strike Israel. Iraq's sovereignty over its territory is a red line, and it is unacceptable for the new administration to have a state of threat. From Iran to the interests of America's allies in the region, such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and of course to prevent missiles targeting America's strongest ally, Israel.

The important issue is that Trump addressed the Iranian people, not the Iranian state, and promised them that he would do them justice against this tyrannical rule and would liberate them from it. It has become clear that Iran is witnessing massive demonstrations by its people, especially Iranian women, who have demonstrated several times regarding their opposition to the re-imposition of the hijab on them, and demonstrations against the rule represented by the turbaned men who are harsh and oppressive towards the Iranian people, who have begun to suffer greatly.

I expect that there will be an upcoming revolution in Iran, and the Iranian people will continue to revolt against the policy of oppression under which they live, as Trump promised them that they deserve a better life. It is clear that Trump has succeeded in the past in eliminating terrorist organizations in the Arab region, such as ISIS in Syria, especially its presence in the northern Syrian region. I also believe that Trump will continue his efforts to eliminate all types of factions and will seek to end their role in the Arab East, and they will not affect Arab security in the future from today, and in the entire region in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and others. Most importantly, Trump's policy will seek to achieve a vision of a new, safe Middle East, and will impose a new global economic will in it, especially since America constitutes a third of the global economy and is the strongest economy in the world, with a budget of about 33 trillion dollars. This American economic power, from Trump's point of view, instead of being used in costly military wars in the world, especially the Arab East, should be exploited in the American domestic economy, which is suffering from challenges due to the current Biden policy and administration.

Today, for example, Iraq is suffering economically, despite being an oil country. Where do the oil revenues and money go while the people are suffering economically? Unfortunately, some Iraqi banks are smuggling dollars to Iran. In the past, during Trump's previous term, he imposed financial sanctions on these banks that smuggle money to Iran, but it seems that these sanctions were not enough, and I believe that he will work to renew their imposition in order to deter these Iraqi banks. Thus, he will succeed in stopping the smuggling of money to Iran at the expense of the oppressed Iraqi people, who deserve a decent and better life instead of those who live on them and their money.

There is also a complex reality, which is the war in Gaza that has been raging since October 7, 2023, and the battles that followed on October 8, an ongoing war in southern Lebanon, and its subsequent expansion within what is called the unity of arenas in Yemen and Iraq, and its repercussions on the Bab al-Mandab Strait region and its economic effects on the entire region, including the cessation of trade in the Red Sea, which had an economic impact on the prices of goods and commodities in the region, and was also accompanied by a significant rise in oil prices, and we are still living its repercussions now. Likewise, missile strikes continue between Iran and Israel and the countries of the Arab East that are living in the midst of this conflict. Iran strikes Israel, Israel responds, Hezbollah responds, and ground battles in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, and no one knows where all this is going? All of this has clearly affected the American economy, which sends weapons from it, and they are taken from American taxpayer money. In light of the increase in arms shipments when Iran increases its escalation by launching missiles, in addition to Biden’s administration of the war in the Arab East and the Russian-Ukrainian war, the American people and their economy are the ones paying the price. The impact of this was clear when Hurricane Harvey struck the state of Miami and the Biden administration did nothing to provide relief to this stricken region, while all the money went to wars in Biden and Harris’s policy.

Instead of spending on wars and their direct impact on a reality that shows the deterioration and damage of the American and global economy, especially the situation in the Arab East, which is economically deteriorating due to the raging wars, Trump's policy seeks to adopt a policy that relies on striving to extinguish wars, working to develop the economy and promote local development in America, and working to keep oil prices from rising. There is no doubt that all of this will be reflected positively locally and internationally, especially if Trump reaches a solution to the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump says that he will be fair to all the conflicting and warring parties, and he does not hide his strong relationship with Netanyahu and the interests of Israel, especially since it is America's spoiled son. Despite all of this, Trump will be fair, as he promised the Arab and Islamic community in America in his efforts to stop the war, and I believe that he will achieve this goal until he succeeds in creating and finding a Middle East free of wars and conflicts. After that, the Middle East will enter a new phase that I believe will witness an economic recovery for the Arab peoples, and with it will be the security and peace that Trump is striving hard to achieve.