The assassination of Hezbollah's Secretary-General and the Israeli war calculations

The axis of resistance suffered painful blows, most notably the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, as the American-Zionist F35 aircraft of hatred dropped about 85 bunker-busting bombs, each weighing a ton of explosives. There was also a great loss in the assassination of other prominent leaders from the first rank of the military leadership, “Fouad Shukr, Ibrahim Aqil, Muhammad Hussein Surur, Ibrahim Qubaisi, and others...”, and the bombing of a building in the southern suburb of Beirut in an operation that led to the martyrdom of a number of senior Hezbollah leaders, and the blow of the explosion of Hezbollah’s communications devices. The resistance is an institutional approach and work, and the martyrdom of leaders is a great loss that the resistance cannot easily replace, especially in the circumstances of the escalation of the war and the ferocity of the battle. So who will play their role? The role that should not be absent even for a moment, and we are all hopeful and confident that the alternative will be with the competence and determination capable of continuing the difficult journey. The revolution is born, and the resistance will not be affected by the absence of a leader. The matter does not depend on mere individuals, no matter how great their role is. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has established a solid organization. The blow that does not kill it strengthens it, and his martyrdom will not be the end of the resistance strategy and its role, as the enemy thinks.

September 27 will not be the same as the day before, and the martyrdom of the leader will not be the same as before. The assassination is a historical turning point and an exceptional event that qualifies for a new stage of struggle and combat, determined by the strategy and nature of the resistance axis, revenge and liberation, and insistence on following the path of resistance, the path for which the leader Hassan Nasrallah lived and was martyred, returning to the strategy of balanced deterrence that requires placing the approach of revenge in the calculations of the resistance. The blood of the martyr will not be in vain. This is what we anticipate from the fate of the resistance in the coming fateful stage, and confronting its developments and challenges. A resistance that can bear the burdens, continues to support Palestine. The continuation of the resistance operations the next day, the launching of its rockets, and the expansion of the circle of its targeting, confirms that it is completing its mission in supporting Palestine, and that things are proceeding as if Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is still alive among us, and the Lebanese front will not stop supporting until the aggression on Gaza is stopped.

There is no doubt that the enemy is now feeling the euphoria of victory. Netanyahu presents these tactical successes as an important victory to the Israeli public, thirsty for Palestinian and Lebanese blood, as if they were the final blow to the resistance. He boasts about the displacement of the southerners from their homes and villages, the destruction of the infrastructure in areas where Hezbollah is present, and Israel’s success in the assassinations of senior leaders.

It is true that assassinations are important tactical achievements, but the resistance will remain fine. Hezbollah has more than forty years of experience in the struggle, and is capable of filling the void left by the martyrdom of leaders, especially in difficult circumstances. It is true that the assassination of Sayyed Abbas al-Moussawi on February 16, 1992, the former Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, was compensated for with the required speed and efficiency, but the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah came in difficult, critical and dangerous circumstances that may allow the enemy to exploit the great confusion within the ranks of Hezbollah, and the turbulent internal situation caused by the absence of a number of leaders, and the void they left.

The enemy may believe that the concentrated and extensive air raids will complete the state of imbalance in the ranks of the Islamic Resistance. We do not deny that the enemy has achieved something when the occupation army began its aggression with waves of intensive air raids and heavy bombs. It may be planning for it to be a prelude to a ground war, which it is preparing for and encouraging with the success of the recent assassination operations. The occupation army violated the controls and rules of the war that has been ongoing for about a year since October 7, 2023, and expanded its scope, and broke the equation of mutual strikes. By declaring on September 18, 2024 a new phase of the war to achieve the goal it declared, "returning the residents of the north to their homes safely." This means, according to the enemy, that Israel aims primarily from any possible incursion into southern Lebanon to push Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River, stop the firing of short-range missiles towards the settlements, and prevent the recurrence of an attack similar to the October 7 attack in the north.

What comes after the escalation of the extensive air strikes on areas extending from the south to the Bekaa, the mountains and the Lebanese coast, and directing concentrated strikes on the southern suburb of the capital Beirut? On Monday, September 23, 2024, Netanyahu escalated the aggression by expanding the scope and size of the Israeli raids in Lebanon. What suggests what the enemy is thinking, and is evidenced by the statements of the enemy's leaders, and its movements that show its intention to move from the stage of concentrated and extensive air strikes to the stage of ground war "a comprehensive war or a limited ground incursion", Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah did not want escalation, not for fear of a comprehensive war, but rather he did not want it out of concern for Lebanon from destruction and for civilians from a war of extermination. If a brutal war of aggression is imposed on Lebanon, the Islamic Resistance will plunge his army into a war of attrition that will lead to a crushing defeat for the enemy. If he thinks of crossing the Litani, it will allow Hezbollah elements to prove their efficiency and courage in exhausting the enemy, as the Palestinian resistance did in the Gaza Strip. The war of attrition is the worst thing that Israel could face if it launched a ground war and its tanks and armored vehicles invaded southern Lebanon. The resistance must remain cohesive and heal its wounds, bear the burden of the current situation, and prepare for all possibilities. The martyred leader threatened the Zionist invasion with a war without rules or controls if it dared to embark on a comprehensive war.

Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the army decided to transfer the Israeli "Commando 98" Brigade from Gaza to the northern front, in preparation for the possibility of expanding the war against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Israeli army announced that it had called up two reserve brigades in preparation for the ground war, whose operations require several military divisions unless they are limited to some "operational missions" in the north. On Wednesday, September 25, the Israeli Chief of Staff called on his soldiers to prepare for a possible entry into Lebanon, and he expects that this incursion will not be a walk in the park, and will be met with harsh attrition operations, which will result in Israeli soldiers being killed, captured, or wounded.

The tone of threats has escalated from Israeli officials, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, regarding dealing more severe blows to Hezbollah and entering the war on Lebanon into a new phase. It is known that Israel will resort to pressure, brutality, and random bombing that targets civilians and inflicts the greatest losses among them.

The war against civilians with devastating aerial bombardment aims to pressure the Lebanese Islamic Resistance to disengage from the Palestinian arena. An Israeli official said: “We decided to kill Nasrallah after we concluded that he would not accept a solution that was not linked to ending the war on Gaza.” He added: “Nasrallah rejected all demands to stop linking himself to Gaza and expanded the scope of attacks on Israel.” Minister Gila Gamliel said: “The assassination of Nasrallah was a necessary condition for achieving the goals of the war.”

After the martyrdom of the leader, the Islamic Resistance is able to thwart all the enemy’s goals. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah challenged the enemy that they are not able to return the settlers to their homes in the north unless the displaced Palestinians return to the northern Gaza Strip and the occupation army withdraws from the entire Strip.