Hezbollah at the Finish Line

To justify the severe blows it has received, Hezbollah and its supporters console themselves with the notion that "we have been sacrificing martyrs for 40 years." The party’s shrewd bi-pronged propaganda game is centered around this theme. Managing the contradictions of its narrative, it glorifies leaders who have fallen in battles or been assassinated and portrays them as legends, before swiftly transitioning to an antithetical claim: losing these legendary leaders does not undermine the party’s efforts or project in any way. 

It seems that this game is no longer sufficient for boosting morale and mobilizing support at this point, as Hezbollah is undergoing the most difficult phase it has been through since it was established in 1982. Within less than a year, a deep crisis has undermined its leadership structure, military capabilities, and operational effectiveness, raising serious questions about its future in Lebanon and the regional geopolitical landscape. 

First: the penetration of Hezbollah's communication networks has dealt a severe blow to a crucial pillar of any organization or army’s capabilities. Without them, no fighting force can wage any kind of conflict. Israel’s ability to penetrate mobile phones has left the party exposed since the conflict began, allowing the Israelis to locate and eliminate a large number of the party’s field commanders. Later on, following the assassination of military commander Fuad Shukr, it became apparent that Israel had even succeeded in infiltrating Hezbollah's private landline communication network- the same network that Hezbollah had fought a "mini civil war"to maintain in 2008. 

The most consequential blow was dealt when Israel lured Hezbollah into making a deal to purchase thousands of booby-trapped pagers, most of which detonated in the hands of their users within less than 30 minutes, critically injuring many operatives and officials. This breach opened the door to locating figures like the commander of the Radwan Unit, Ibrahim Aqil, who had been injured as a result of this very operation. He was identified after Israel hacked into the surveillance cameras of the hospital where he was receiving treatment, and then tracked his movements after he was discharged, leading them to the building in the southern suburb of Beirut (Dahyieh) where he held his final meeting around 24 hours later. 

The scale of the collapse of Hezbollah's secure communications is immense. Even without accounting for the scale of the injuries and losses it caused, this breakdown makes it impossible for Hezbollah to engage in a direct conflict with Israel. By bombarding the location of the meeting in Beirut’s southern suburb, Israel demonstrated that Hezbollah is in chaos and that it has lost its operational efficiency and that its command and control capabilities have collapsed due to the severe breach of its communications infrastructure. Second: its breach of Hezbollah’s communications has allowed Israel to launch devastating preemptive strikes on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, including its weapon depots, rocket launching sites, fortified positions, and drone and missile assembly plants. 

The most notable strikes were launched on August 25th, when around 100 Israeli fighter jets destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers that were about to be used in attacks on northern and central Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr. Anticipation and speculation of Hezbollah’s retaliation have not dominated the media coverage since then. The general impression is that, although it managed to launch a few rockets or sought to project strength by launching rockets at the vicinity of Haifa, Hezbollah has completely lost the initiative. Indeed, with the assassination of Fuad Shukr, the preemptive strike that followed, and finally, the strike that eliminated an unprecedented number of Hezbollah’s top brass in the heart of Beirut’s southern suburb, Israel has raised the stakes to an entirely new level. Third: the most painful blow might be Israel’s systematic assassination of Hezbollah leaders and its pivotal operatives. 

The Israeli military has released an image of Hezbollah’s leadership structure showing that the party has lost about 70 percent (6 out of 9) of its military and field commanders. Its assassinations have also targeted hundreds of Hezbollah figures that oversee critical operations, including drone warfare, cyberwar, special coordination units, and key field commanders and personnel. Given how rapidly and extensively Israel has drained the party’s human capabilities, a massive strategic vacuum has emerged and it will be difficult to fill in the near future. 

These assassinations have not only weakened the party’s effectiveness in the field but have also devastated its morale and strategic vision. As a result, Hezbollah now finds itself in the worst situation it has ever been in. Its communication networks were compromised, its military infrastructure was destroyed, and it is bleeding leaders and cadres. The hits it has taken in the past few weeks are more consequential than all the blow it has received over the past few decades combined, raising existential questions about Hezbollah’s future, its role in Lebanon, and its standing among its allies and adversaries in the Middle East.

Source: Al Sharq Al Awsat