All possibilities of war are open

Before the dangerous Israeli escalation last week against targets in Lebanon, I wrote that escalation is possible, but within the limits of a regional war. After this escalation, we can confirm that all possibilities of war are now possible, including an open, comprehensive, regional war and the continuation of the support war with calculated escalation, unless something unexpected happens that changes the likely scenarios and introduces other scenarios. However, Hezbollah and the axis of resistance are keen not to fall into the Israeli trap of being dragged into an open, comprehensive war at a time that suits the occupying state, as a war of attrition suits the axis of resistance and does not suit the far-right government, so it seeks to change the war scenarios.

What leads to this conclusion is that Benjamin Netanyahu's government wants a comprehensive war while continuing the war of extermination against the Palestinians, especially if the war of terror, shock and internal undermining does not work, which expresses itself through the qualitative operations it carried out, from the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, through the assassination of Fouad Shukr, the pager and wireless devices operations, the assassination of Ibrahim Aqil and his companions, and ending with the concentrated targeting of missile launchers, with the aim of paralyzing the resistance and inciting the internal Lebanese environment, starting from the party's circles and the Shiite sect and ending with all of Lebanon; to pressure Hezbollah to stop the support war to spare Lebanon a destruction similar to what happened in the Gaza Strip.

Whoever carried out the two mass bombings that targeted thousands, and the targeting of the leader of al-Radwan and his companions a day later, in which dozens of martyrs, most of them civilians, were killed, crossing the red line by targeting the southern suburb again, wants or takes into account the high possibility of turning the support war into an open war. If it were up to Netanyahu and his generals alone, they would have launched a comprehensive war immediately after the pager and wireless communications operations, and caught Hezbollah by surprise while it was in a state of complete confusion. However, this constitutes a departure from the scope permitted by the United States; as is evident from the continuous warnings of a regional war, the administration of US President Joe Biden gave Israel the green light for a war below the level of a regional war, in the hope that the displaced people of southern Lebanon and northern occupied Palestine would return to their homes, as Biden stated.

The Netanyahu government most likely aimed, and still aims, to lure Hezbollah into a strong and proportionate response at an inappropriate time for it, so that it can launch a comprehensive war against it while ensuring that the US administration stands by its very special ally, especially since it is constrained on the eve of the US elections, due to the impact of the comprehensive war on raising prices and inflation, and enabling Beijing and Moscow to benefit through intervention, even if indirectly; which greatly affects Kamala Harris’s chances in the elections, so that it can launch a comprehensive war against it under the pretext of self-defense, while being assured that Washington will be with it, albeit reluctantly.

The Biden administration would have preferred to reach a prisoner exchange and calm deal on the Gaza front that would help reach a settlement on the Lebanese front.

The dangerous criminal Israeli escalation that took place last Tuesday and Wednesday, and then last Friday, indicates either a major breakthrough by Hezbollah, or a greater technological superiority than previously thought, or both. Therefore, before rushing into a proportionate response, the defect must be addressed and the ranks must be reorganized, not dealt with emotionally, and submit to the demands of the public supporting the resistance away from cold strategic calculations. Hezbollah received strong blows and the occupying state achieved important tactical gains, but despite their importance, they did not change the strategic environment, as evidenced by the fact that the support war continued and escalated and the rules of engagement changed, and the stage of open reckoning began, and that the settlers of the northern colonies have not returned to their homes, and will not return according to Hassan Nasrallah’s commitment except by stopping the war of extermination.

We must note that Iran, like China, is endowed by the imbalance of power and the fact that the Israeli entity is part of the colonial camp with the characteristics of a "Persian carpet" maker who spends years and years weaving the carpet with art, mastery, and tirelessly step by step, and in light of the skill and intelligence of the country and people of the "inventor of chess" who are endowed with strategic patience and the perseverance and persistence of an ant that tries and tries and tries until it achieves what it wants. Tehran also gives priority to maintaining its nuclear program and bringing it to its final stage after it has reached the threshold of becoming a nuclear state, and then ensuring its continuation.

If, as they say, the devil’s work had opened up, Gamal Abdel Nasser had not fallen into the Israeli trap aimed at dragging him into war in 1967 before he had completed his preparations, as the minutes of the meetings of the General Staff of the occupation army published later indicated, which insisted and pressured the government of Levi Eshkol to wage war under the pretext of the measures taken by Abdel Nasser, the shameful June defeat would not have occurred, and the fate of the entire region would have been different; because the June defeat is the founding event of the Arab collapse, which brought the Arabs, stage after stage, to their current situation without a single Arab project, nor a single Arab leadership, nor a leading state, nor a single leader.

Does the above not hold Hezbollah responsible? No, of course not. It bears responsibility for not anticipating the repercussions of the Israeli superiority it knew, and it should have been more careful about raising the ceiling of expectations, and thus limiting the level of threats and promises.

It is enough for Hezbollah to continue the support war until now, despite the high price it has paid and is still willing to pay, for a period of almost a full year so far, and has prevented the occupation army from ending the war and returning the displaced to their homes. It is true that this has not stopped the war of extermination on the Gaza Strip until now, but it has raised the Israeli price of this war, limited the capabilities of the occupation state to achieve its goals, and placed more question marks regarding the Israeli deterrent force.

If Hezbollah had known about the Al-Aqsa flood and pledged to Hamas to wage a comprehensive war, and that it was capable of it, the assessment would have been different. However, it waged a war of attrition appropriate to its level of readiness despite not knowing in advance, and for this it deserves appreciation, not blame, and it is credited to it, not against it.

To those who push for or insist on an untimely assessment of October 7, or the role played by the axis of resistance and Hezbollah in particular and the unity of the arenas, we say to them: Look with one standard, at a time when they do not say a word about the Arab parties that not only did not fire a single bullet in support of Gaza, but also did not sever the countries that normalized their relations with the occupying state, and did not even verbally threaten to do so.

There is something to be said about the wisdom of implementing the Al-Aqsa Flood and the role of the axis of resistance, but at the right time and place, and in a dialogue between allies and friends in one camp.

However, if we imagine for a moment that this axis did not exist and that Iran was following America’s lead, like the Arab countries, Israel would have been roaming the region and achieving Netanyahu’s declared goal of changing the Middle East without a price or at the lowest price.

The occupation government has adopted the annexation, Judaization and displacement program, and the conflict resolution plan that aims to liquidate the Palestinian cause from all its dimensions before the Al-Aqsa flood. It was supposed and natural to initiate a unified national response commensurate with it, based on a comprehensive vision, strategy and a single leadership, otherwise it would succeed in resolving the conflict, and this is the worst thing that could happen to the Palestinians and their cause, but this did not happen, and opened the way for what happened to happen. It is not possible to turn back the hands of history, and instead to reduce losses and damages, maximize gains and utilize available opportunities.