In an investigation published on Sunday, the New York Times noted that “after Hamas attacked Israel in October, igniting the war in Gaza,” Israeli leaders described the movement’s most senior official in the Strip, Yahya Sinwar, as “a dead man walking.” “Meaning that his days are numbered. As the architect of the attack and the decision-maker, Israel made the assassination of Sinwar the main goal of its devastating attack.

Seven months later, Sinwar's survival has become a symbol of the failure of Israel's war, which destroyed much of Gaza but left Hamas's senior leadership largely intact and failed to free prisoners taken during the October 7 attack.

Even as Israeli officials sought to kill him, “they were forced to negotiate with him, albeit indirectly, to free the remaining hostages.” Sinwar emerged not only as a strong-willed leader, but as a smart negotiator who succeeded in avoiding an Israeli victory on the battlefield while engaging the envoys. “The Israelis are at the negotiating table, according to officials from Hamas, Israel and the United States,” some said on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence assessments.

While the talks are being mediated in Egypt and Qatar, it is Sinwar — believed to be hiding in a network of tunnels under Gaza — whose approval Hamas negotiators are seeking before agreeing to any concessions, according to some of those officials.

Hamas officials insist that Sinwar does not have the final say in the movement's decisions. But although Sinwar does not technically have authority over the entire Hamas movement, his leadership role in Gaza and his strong personality have given him outsized importance in how Hamas operates, according to allies and enemies alike.

The New York Times quotes Salah al-Din al-Awawda, a Hamas member and political analyst who befriended Sinwar while they were imprisoned in Israel during the 1990s and 2000s: “There is no decision that can be made without consulting Sinwar; Sinwar is not an ordinary leader. He is a strong person and the architect of events.” “He's not some kind of manager or director, he's a leader,” Al-Awawda added.

Sinwar has rarely been heard from since the beginning of the war, unlike Hamas officials stationed outside Gaza, including Ismail Haniyeh, the movement's most senior civilian official. Although younger than Haniyeh, Sinwar was pivotal to Hamas' behind-the-scenes decision to adhere to a permanent ceasefire, American and Israeli officials say.

Waiting for Sinwar's approval often slowed negotiations, according to officials and analysts. Israeli strikes have destroyed much of Gaza's communications infrastructure, and it sometimes takes one day to get a message to Sinwar and one day to receive a response, according to American officials and Hamas members.

To Israeli and Western officials, Sinwar has emerged during these negotiations, which stalled again in Cairo last week, as a fierce opponent and a skilled political player, able to analyze Israeli society and seem to adapt his policies accordingly. .

"US and Israeli intelligence agencies have spent months assessing Sinwar's motives, according to people familiar with the intelligence. Analysts in both the United States and Israel believe Sinwar's main motivation is a desire to take revenge on and weaken Israel. Intelligence analysts say the well-being of the Palestinian people or the creation of a Palestinian state “It seems like a secondary matter,” according to the newspaper.

Al-Sanwar was born in Gaza in 1962 to a family that was forced to flee their home, along with hundreds of thousands of other Palestinian Arabs who were forced to flee and leave their homes due to the establishment of Israel.

Sinwar joined Hamas in the 1980s. He was later imprisoned for the murder of Palestinians he accused of apostasy or collaborating with Israel, according to Israeli court records from 1989. Sinwar spent more than two decades in Israeli prisons before being released in 2011, along with more than 1,000 other Palestinians, in exchange for an Israeli soldier. His family was Hamas. Six years later, Sinwar was elected leader of Hamas in Gaza.

While in prison, Sinwar learned Hebrew and developed an understanding of Israeli culture and society, according to fellow former inmates and Israeli officials who observed him in prison. Sinwar now appears to be using this knowledge to sow divisions in Israeli society and increase pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, according to Israeli and American officials.

They believe Sinwar timed the release of the videos of some Israeli hostages in order to incite public anger toward Netanyahu during crucial stages of the ceasefire talks.

Some Israelis want the remaining hostages released even if it means agreeing to Hamas's demands for a permanent truce that would keep the group — and Sinwar — in power. But Netanyahu has been reluctant to agree to end the war, partly due to pressure from some of his right-wing allies, who have threatened to resign if the war ends with Hamas continuing.

The newspaper says: “If Netanyahu is accused of prolonging the fighting for personal gain, so is his arch enemy, Sinwar.”

Israeli and American intelligence officers say that Sinwar's strategy is to keep the war going as long as it tears apart Israel's international reputation and harms its relationship with its main ally, the United States. While Israel faced intense pressure to avoid launching an operation in Rafah, Hamas fired rockets last Sunday from Rafah towards a nearby border crossing, killing four Israeli soldiers.

According to the report, if this was a maneuver on the part of Hamas, it seemed to have paid off: Israel began an operation last week on the outskirts of Rafah, and against this background, President Biden directed his strongest criticism of Israeli policy since the start of the war. Biden said he would halt some future arms shipments if the Israeli military began a full-scale invasion of the city's urban core.

Hamas and its allies deny that Sinwar or the movement are trying to benefit from further Palestinian suffering.

The newspaper quotes Ahmed Youssef, a Hamas veteran residing in Rafah, as saying: “Hamas’ strategy is to stop the war now, and stop the genocide and killing of the Palestinian people.”

US officials say Sinwar showed disdain for his colleagues outside Gaza, who were not informed of the exact plans for the Hamas attack on October 7, according to US intelligence. American officials also believe that Sinwar approves of military operations carried out by Hamas.

“A senior Western official familiar with the ceasefire negotiations believes that Sinwar appears to be making decisions in coordination with his brother Muhammad, a senior Hamas military commander, and that throughout the war he sometimes disagreed with Hamas leaders outside Gaza,” the official said. The official said that while the external leadership was Sometimes more willing to reach a settlement, Sinwar is less willing to concede to Israeli negotiators, partly because he knows he is likely to be killed whether the war ends or not.

The official said that even if negotiators reach a ceasefire agreement, Israel will likely pursue Sinwar for the rest of his life.

Hamas members displayed an image of unity, downplaying Sinwar's personal role in decision-making and emphasizing that the elected Hamas leadership collectively determines the movement's course.

Some say that if Sinwar has played a greater role during this war, it is mostly due to his position: As Hamas leader in Gaza, Sinwar has a greater say, though not the final say, according to Musa Abu Marzouk. , a senior Hamas official residing in Qatar.

Abu Marzouk, the first leader of Hamas’s political bureau in the 1990s, said: “Sinwar’s opinion is very important because he is on the ground and leading the movement from within.”

But Haniyeh has the “final say” on major decisions, Abu Marzouk said, adding that all Hamas political leaders have “one opinion.”

However, there is something unusual about Al-Sinwar's strength of character, according to Al-Awawda, his friend from prison. Al-Awawda said other leaders may not have been the ones who instigated the October 7 attack, preferring to focus on technocratic issues of governance.

He added: "If someone else had been in his place, things might have gone more calmly."

Last February, the Israeli occupation forces claimed (in a video clip published by the Israeli army) that soldiers captured it with a security camera (which they found in a Hamas tunnel under Gaza). The video showed a man rushing through the tunnel accompanied by a woman and children. They said that the man was Sinwar, and he was fleeing. With his family, “but it was impossible to verify this claim: the man’s face was turned away from the camera,” according to the newspaper.